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![Page 1: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Approaches for
Cost-effective Reductions
of Population Exposure
to Fine Particulate Matter
in Europe
M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes,
Z. Klimont, F. Wagner, W. Schöpp
![Page 2: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
General assumptions
• All calculations for 2020
• CAFE baseline scenario “with climate measures”
• Maximum technically feasible emission reductions (MTFR) as presented to WGTS in November
• Impact assessment for 1997 meteorology
• Assumptions on health impact assessment as presented earlier
![Page 3: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
New elements
• Validation of PM source-receptor relationships
• Provisional City-Delta results are included, but could be improved
• Analysis with illustrative assumptions on Euro-V and Euro-VI
• Baseline costs corrected – no influence on optimization results.
![Page 4: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Functional relationships for PM
PM2.5j Annual mean concentration of PM2.5 at receptor point j
I Set of emission sources (countries)
J Set of receptors (grid cells)
pi Primary emissions of PM2.5 in country i
si SO2 emissions in country i
ni NOx emissions in country i
ai NH3 emissions in country i
αS,Wij, νS,W,A
ij, σW,Aij, πA
ij Linear transfer matrices for reduced and oxidized nitrogen, sulfur and primary PM2.5, for winter, summer and annual
)2**2),1**32
14*1**1,0min(max(*5.0
)**(*5.0
**5.2
jiIi
Wijji
Ii
Wiji
Ii
Wij
iIi
Siji
Ii
Sij
iIi
Aij
Iii
Aijj
knckscac
na
spPM
![Page 5: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Validation of PMCAFE baseline 2020 [μg/m3]
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
EMEP model
RA
INS
ap
pro
xim
ati
on
![Page 6: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
City-Delta estimates for 2000 (1)PM2.5, annual mean [μg/m3]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Gra
z
Wie
n
Ant
wer
pen
Bru
xelle
s
Brn
o
Ost
rava
Plz
en
Pra
ha
Kø
benh
avn
Tal
linn
Hel
sink
i
Tam
pere
Van
taa
Bor
deau
x
Lille
Lyon
Mar
seill
e *)
Mon
tpel
lier
Nan
tes
Nic
e
Par
is
Rei
ms
Ren
nes
Str
asbo
urg
Tou
lous
e
Mineral Secondary incl H2O Primary-50*50km estimate Urban increment Observation ~2000
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
![Page 7: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
City-Delta estimates for 2000 (2)PM2.5, annual mean [μg/m3]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ber
lin
Düs
seld
orf
Fra
nkfu
rt a
m M
ain
Ham
burg
Koe
ln
Man
nhei
m
Mün
chen
Nür
nber
g
Stu
ttgar
t
Ath
ina
The
ssal
onik
i *)
The
ssal
onik
i
Bud
apes
t
Deb
rece
n
Mis
kolc
Dub
lin
Bar
i
Bol
ogna
Mod
ena
Bre
scia
Cag
liari
Cat
ania
Fire
nze/
Livo
rno
*)
Fire
nze
Gen
ova
Gen
ova
Gen
ova
Livo
rno
Mes
sina
Mila
no
Nap
oli
Pal
erm
o
Par
ma
Reg
gio
di C
alab
ria
Rom
a
Tar
anto
Tor
ino
Trie
ste*
)
Trie
ste
Ven
ezia
Ver
ona
Mineral Secondary incl H2O Primary-50*50km estimate Urban increment Observation ~2000
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
![Page 8: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
City-Delta estimates for 2000 (3)PM2.5, annual mean [μg/m3]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Am
ster
dam
Rot
terd
am
Kat
owic
e
Lodz
War
szaw
a
Lisb
oa
Por
to
Bra
tisla
va
Kos
ice
Ljub
ljana
Ljub
ljana
Alm
eria
Bar
celo
na
Bilb
ao
Car
tage
na
Cor
doba
Elc
he
Gijo
n
Gra
nada
Jere
z de
la F
ront
era
Mad
rid
Mal
aga
Mur
cia
Ovi
edo
Pal
ma
de M
allo
rca
Pam
plon
a
Sab
adel
l
San
tand
er
Sev
illa
Val
enci
a
Val
lado
lid
Vig
o
Vito
ria-G
aste
iz
Zar
agoz
a
Mineral Secondary incl H2O Primary-50*50km estimate Urban increment Observation ~2000
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
![Page 9: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
City-Delta estimates for 2000 (4)PM2.5, annual mean [μg/m3]
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rig
a
Kau
nas
Kla
iped
a
Viln
ius
Göt
ebor
g
Mal
moe
Sto
ckho
lm
Upp
sala
Abe
rdee
n
Bel
fast
Birm
ingh
am, C
oven
try
Birm
ingh
am, D
erby
Bra
dfor
d, L
eeds
Bris
tol
Der
by, S
heffi
eld
Edi
nbur
gh
Gla
sgow
Kin
gsto
n up
on H
ull
Live
rpoo
l
Lond
on
Man
ches
ter
New
cast
le-u
pon-
Tyn
e
Nor
tham
pton
Nor
wic
h
Not
tingh
am, D
erby
Ply
mou
th
Por
tsm
outh
Pre
ston
Sou
tham
pton
Sto
ke-o
n-T
rent
Sw
anse
a
Mineral Secondary incl H2O Primary-50*50km estimate Urban increment Observation ~2000
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
![Page 10: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Euro-V and Euro-VIIllustrative assumptions
Assumed emission factors:
Assumed implementation dates:
Euro-V: 2010
Euro-VI : 2014
NOx PM
HDV – Euro-V 1.47 g/kWh 0.015 g/kWh
- Euro-VI 0.4 g/kWh 0.01 g/kWh
LDV – Euro-IV 0.305 g/km 0.027 g/km
- Euro-V 0.06 g/km 0.004 g/km
![Page 11: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Euro-V and Euro-VIImpacts on EU-25 emissions in 2020
NOx PM
HDV
CLE 1079 kt 12.1 kt
Euro-VI 724 kt (-33 %) 10.3 kt (-15 %)
LDV
CLE 508 kt 39.8 kt
Euro-V 245 kt (-52 %) 18.1 kt (-55 %)
Total emissions CLE 5889 kt 965 kt
Euro-V/VI 5271 kt (-10 %) 941 kt (-2.4 %)
![Page 12: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Costs of current legislation for baseline 2020Corrected estimates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Costs Baseline (Euro/person/yr) Mobile SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM
![Page 13: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Caveats
• Limited quality control of the initial results
• New functional relationships not yet formally documented; validation not fully completed
• Provisional City-Delta results are included, but could be improved!
• Uncertainty analysis not yet performed
![Page 14: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Optimization analyses
![Page 15: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
• Uniform limit value for air quality:Bring down PM2.5 everywhere below a AQ limit value
• Gap closure concept:Reduce PM2.5 levels everywhere by same percentage
• Maximize total health benefits in Europe for a given European budget constraint, disregarding the location of the benefit
Three concepts for target setting
![Page 16: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Option 1: Uniform limit value on air quality
• EMEP/RAINS quantify: – Primary anthropogenic PM– Secondary inorganic aerosols (including water)
• EMEP/RAINS miss: – Mineral and Sea-salt from natural sources– Primary organic matter from natural sources– Secondary organic aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources
• RAINS + City-Delta address urban background, but not hot spots in street canyons
• Thus, model can only explain part of observed PM
![Page 17: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Scope for uniform limit value (1)excl. unknown contributions of SOA + natural primary organic matter
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Ber
lin
Düs
seld
orf
Fra
nkfu
rt a
m M
ain
Ham
burg
Koe
ln
Man
nhei
m
Mün
chen
Nür
nber
g
Stu
ttgar
t
Ath
ina
The
ssal
onik
i
Bud
apes
t
Deb
rece
n
Mis
kolc
Dub
lin
Bar
i
Bol
ogna
Mod
ena
Bre
scia
Cag
liari
Cat
ania
Fire
nze
Livo
rno
Mes
sina
Mila
no
Nap
oli
Pal
erm
o
Par
ma
Reg
gio
di C
alab
ria
Rom
a
Tar
anto
Tor
ino
Trie
ste
Ver
ona
Feasible range for limit value Mineral MTFR MTFR - CLE CLE - 2000 Observation ~2000
![Page 18: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Scope for uniform limit value (2)excl. unknown contributions of SOA + primary natural organic matter
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Am
ster
dam
Rot
terd
am
Kat
owic
e
Lodz
War
szaw
a
Lisb
oa
Por
to
Bra
tisla
va
Kos
ice
Ljub
ljana
Bar
celo
na
Bilb
ao
Car
tage
na
Cor
doba
Elc
he
Gijo
n
Gra
nada
Jere
z de
la F
ront
era
Mad
rid
Mal
aga
Mur
cia
Ovi
edo
Pal
ma
de M
allo
rca
Pam
plon
a
Sab
adel
l
San
tand
er
Sev
illa
Val
enci
a
Val
lado
lid
Vig
o
Vito
ria-G
aste
iz
Zar
agoz
a
Feasible range for limit value Mineral MTFR MTFR - CLE CLE - 2000 Observation ~2000
![Page 19: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Scope for uniform limit value (3)excl. unknown contributions of SOA + primary natural organic matter
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Gra
z
Wie
n
Ant
wer
pen
Bru
xelle
s
Brn
o
Ost
rava
Plz
en
Pra
ha
Kø
benh
avn
Tal
linn
Hel
sink
i
Tam
pere
Van
taa
Bor
deau
x
Lille
Lyon
Mar
seill
e *)
Mon
tpel
lier
Nan
tes
Nic
e
Par
is
Rei
ms
Ren
nes
Str
asbo
urg
Tou
lous
e
"Feasible range for limit value" Mineral MTFR MTFR - CLE CLE - 2000 Observation ~2000
![Page 20: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Scope for uniform limit value (4)excl. unknown contributions of SOA + primary natural organic matter
*) this initial estimate includes too high PM emissions from ships
0
5
10
15
20
25
Rig
a
Kau
nas
Kla
iped
a
Viln
ius
Göt
ebor
g
Mal
moe
Sto
ckho
lm
Upp
sala
Abe
rdee
n
Bel
fast
Birm
ingh
am, C
oven
try
Birm
ingh
am, D
erby
Bra
dfor
d, L
eeds
Bris
tol
Der
by, S
heffi
eld
Edi
nbur
gh
Gla
sgow
Kin
gsto
n up
on H
ull
Live
rpoo
l
Lond
on
Man
ches
ter
New
cast
le-u
pon-
Tyn
e
Nor
tham
pton
Nor
wic
h
Not
tingh
am, D
erby
Ply
mou
th
Por
tsm
outh
Pre
ston
Sou
tham
pton
Sto
ke-o
n-T
rent
Sw
anse
a
Feasible range for limit value Mineral MTFR MTFR - CLE CLE - 2000 Observation ~2000
![Page 21: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Uniform limit value on air quality Ambition levels explored
• Bring annual mean PM2.5 in urban background below
– 19 / 17 / 16.5 / 16 / 15.5 / 15 μg/m3
• This level includes the fraction modelled by RAINS + assumption on mineral (1/2/3 μg/m3)
• It does not include unknown contributions of primary natural organic matter + secondary organic aerosols
• To relate this value to potential hot-spot AQ limit value, add ~ 5 μg/m3 ?
• No targets for harbor cities considered for this round of analysis (mistake in dispersion calculations)
![Page 22: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Costs of the limit value scenarios[billion €/year]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Limit on PM2.5 in urban background [microgram/m3]
without Euro-V/VI with Euro-V/VI
![Page 23: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Costs of the limit value scenarios assuming implementation of Euro-V/VI
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) 16.5 μg 16 μg 15.5 μg
![Page 24: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Costs of the limit value scenarios assuming NO implementation of Euro-V/VI
15 μg/m3 is infeasible
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) 16.5 μg 16 μg 15.5 μg
![Page 25: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Option 2: Gap closure
• Reduce modelled PM2.5 everywhere by the same percentage
• For these round of calculations: – Explore the range between the impacts from
CLE and MTFR including Euro-V/VI
• 25% / 40% / 50% / 60% / 70% / 75% reductions analyzed
• With and without Euro-V/VI
![Page 26: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Effect indicator
MTFR from EU25 excluding EURO5/6
Base year exposure (2000/1990)
Baseline 2020 (Current legislation)
MTFR from EU25MTFR from EU-25 + shipping
MTFR from Europe + shipping
No-effect level (critical load/level)
Zero exposure
Gap concept used for NEC
Range of exploratory ambition levels
NEC 2010
Definition of “gap closure”used for this round of calculations
![Page 27: Approaches for Cost-effective Reductions of Population Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Europe M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas,](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070307/551ad7e455034656628b6402/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Costs of the “gap closure” scenarios[billion €/yr]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-100% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Reduction of the difference between CLE and MFTR incl Euro5/6
Without Euro-V/VI With Euro-V/VI
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) 40% GC 60% GC 70% GC
Costs of the “gap closure” scenariosassuming Euro-V/VI, [billion €/yr]
100% is the range between CLE and MTFR incl. Euro-V/VI
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Costs of the “gap closure” scenarioswithout Euro-V/VI, [billion €/yr]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Ital
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) 40% GC 60% GC 70% GC
100% is the range between CLE and MTFR incl. Euro-V/VI
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Option 3: Maximize total European health benefits for a given budget
• Dual optimization problem: Instead of – Minimize total European costs for achieving place-specific environmental
targets:
optimize for:
– Maximize total European health benefits (i.e., gains in life expectancy) for a given budget. No consideration of the place/country where the improvement occurs.
• Maximal cost-effectiveness, equity needs to be explored
• Illustrative analysis with pseudo-life expectancy data (calculations include population younger than 30 years)
• No difference of whether Euro-V/VI is taken or not, but a final analysis should include Euro-V/VI (with cost data) in the optimization
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Emission control costs vs. years of life lost Illustrative calculations [billion €/yr]
0
10
20
30
40
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220
Years of life lost (million years)
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Per-capita emission control costs for three selected ambition levels [€/person/yr]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Den
mar
k
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Irel
and
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Mal
ta
Net
herla
nds
Pol
and
Por
tuga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
EU
-25
Budget constraint:Total Costs (Euro/person/yr)
2.1 billion € 6.6 billion € 12.2 billion €
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Gains in statistical life expectancyfor three selected ambition levels [months]
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch
De
nm
ark
Est
on
ia
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hu
ng
ary
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ma
lta
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
UK
EU
25
Budget constraint:
2.1 billion € 6.6 billion € 12.2 billion €
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Costs for a gained month of life expectancyIllustrative results [€/person/year]
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Au
stri
a
Be
lgiu
m
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch
De
nm
ark
Est
on
ia
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hu
ng
ary
Ire
lan
d
Ita
ly
La
tvia
Lith
ua
nia
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Ma
lta
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Po
lan
d
Po
rtu
ga
l
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ed
en
UK
EU
25
European budget constraint
2.1 billion € 6.6 billion € 12.2 billion €
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Cost-effectiveness of the target setting approachesEmission control costs [billion €/yr] vs. YOLL
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230
European targets Gap closure approach Limit value
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Conclusions
• Different target setting rules lead to different distributions of costs and benefits
• Obvious problems for AQ limit values and for gap closure approaches
• For PM, a Europe-wide maximization of benefits does not seem to compromise equity in terms of health effects (does probably not hold for ecosystems!)
• Cost-effectiveness of Euro-V/VI is comparable to that of the more expensive measures for stationary sources, but depends on the chosen ambition level
• Which further analyses will yield maximum information from the last available round of CAFE?
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Priorities for further work
• Sensitivity analysis with national energy projections• Analysis of joint optimizations / or co-benefits of PM?• Ship emissions• Calculations for 2015• ???