Post on 07-Feb-2018
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
Reshamwala ShipbrokersEstb. 1948
LPG Shipping Outlook
Special focus on India
INTERTANKO – Gas ForumSingapore 2016
LPG Shipping OutlookSpecial Focus on India
Prepared for
INTERTANKO GAS FORUM
Singapore 2016
Prepared by
Reshamwala Shipbrokers, India
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
Reshamwala ShipbrokersEstb. 1948
DISCLAIMER:This presentation is for information purpose only and should not be seen as a trading recommendation or a solicitation to trade.Opinions expressed here are subject to change without notice. The information provided here has been obtained from available date and sources from the industry. Efforts are made to try and ensure accuracy of data however, Reshamwala Shipbrokers and/or any ofits affiliates and/or employees accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of thispresentation. This presentation should not be distributed or otherwise reproduced.
Reshamwala Shipbrokers Pvt. Ltd.
Reshamwala Shipbrokers
- Established in 1948
- Pioneered shipbroking in India
- Presently one of India’s largest shipbroking companies
- Involved in segments of Tankers, Gas (LPG + LNG), Dry bulk, Chemicals, Palm Oil, Offshore, Research, Projects and Sales & Purchase
- Entered into the LPG business in 1975
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
Global LPG Production
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
OPEC Russia USA Others
Mill
ion
Tonn
es Iran
UAE
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Other OPEC
Global LPG Production for 2015
• OPEC @ 80.50 million tonsSaudi Arabia @ 25
million tonsQatar @ 11 million tonsUAE @ 11.5 million tonsIran @ 8 million tonsRest of OPEC @ 25
million tons• Russia @ 12 million tons• USA @ 55 million tons• Others @ 33 million tons
Source : In-house Data, EIA
Global LPG Supply
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 2015
% o
f tot
al su
pply
% wise break down of LPG supply
U.S
Lat.Am
Med.
WAF
N.Sea
SEAsia
MEG
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
In 1
000
barr
els
USA Exports over the years
Source : In-house Data, EIA, Thomas Reuters
Middle East LPG Exports
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
Tonn
es UAE
Iran
Qatar
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
• Supply from the Middle East Gulf was down about 1.2% in 2015, due to reduced supply from Qatar, Iran and Bahrain
Source : In-house Data, Platts
Global LPG Seaborne Demand
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
Americas
Africa
Med
NorthernEurope
Asia-Pacfic
Global Seaborne LPG trade
• Decrease in Far East Asian demand has been balanced by Chinese and Indian imports
• China and India have together imported about 5.5 million tons more LPG in 2015 than the previous year
• Together they accounted for 45% of Far East imports
• Europe and Latin America have seen a slight increase of imports in 2015
Source : In-house Data, ICIS, Platts
Far East LPG Demand
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mill
ion
Tonn
es Others
China
Korea
India
Japan
• Deliveries into East accounted for about 46.78 million tons; up 7% from the previous year
• Whilst Japan, Korea and the rest of Asia saw a reduction in imports, China and India saw an increase in imports
• China’s imports were up about 70% and India’s imports were up about 7% from the previous year
• US is likely to increase its LPG export volumes. The VLGC cargo movement in 2015 grew 18% and is estimated to grow another 13% this year.
Source : In-house Data, ICIS
LPG Gas Fleet
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
• Due to continuous rise in LPG markets through 2014 – 2015; LPG tonnage to the tune of 32% of the existing fleet was ordered – still to be delivered
Present Fleet Orderbook Number of Vessels On order as % of
existing fleet
No. of Vessel
s
Mn. CBM
No. of Vessel
s
Mn. CBM
20152016 YTD
2016 Rest
2017 2018 2019
VLGC 221 17.84 69 5.72 35 23 28 30 7 4 32.08LGC 24 1.39 2 0.12 3 0 2 0 0 0 8.63MGC 72 2.55 43 1.62 3 4 10 29 3 1 63.31Handy 96 1.98 35 0.74 7 2 15 18 2 0 37.31SGC 298 2.31 26 0.24 24 7 12 12 2 0 10.44Total 711 26.07 175 8.44 72 35 67 89 14 5 32.37
Source : In-house Data
LPG Fleet Age Profile
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
SGC Handy MGC VLGC
OB
0-4 years
5-9 years
10-14 years
14-19 years
20-24 years
25+ years
Source : In-house Data
Current Market Slump
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
22.02
35.254
55.5 55.94859.205
92.249 91.911
39.29
$8,052
$17,224
$32,263 $32,255
$37,081
$71,365
$ 79,544
$ 31,227
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
$/Pm
t
Annual Average BLPG rate • 2014 and 2015 amongst best years witnessed by ship Owners, where the BLPG index was in excess of US$ 90 pmt
• 2016 saw a steep decline
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb March2015q1 2016 q1
Illustrating LPG market in 2015/16BLPG Index
Source : In-house Data, Baltic Exchange
India’s LPG Consumption
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
12.2
13.1
14.3
15.415.6
16.3
18.019.6 20.6 21.6
1.5%
7.7%
9.1%
7.1%1.6%
4.7%
10.47%
10.5% 5.36%
4.85%
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
22,000,000
24,000,000
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
LPG Consumption Growth Since Previous Year Expected LPG Consumption
• Over the past 5 years India’s LPG consumption has grown 27.37%
• At 19.55 million metric tons (2015-16), India stands at 5 position as a global consumer
• This growth is attributed to the development of India especially the rural areas
Source : In-house Data
India’s LPG Production
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
9.33
10.3
9.62 9.55
9.83 10.03
9.84
10.6
5.27%
10.8%
-6.96% -0.72%
2.93%2.03%
-1.91%
7.72%
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
LPG Production Growth Since Previous Year
• India’s LPG Production has over the past years remained more or less flat at around 10 million tons per annum
• Although there are new refineries on the anvil, India’s consumption is growing at a much rapid pace
Expected LPG ConsumptionSource : In-house Data
India’s LPG Imports
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
2.43 2.72
4.48
5.79
6.29 6.60
8.53
9.07
-14.47%12.17%
64.70%
29.13%8.69%
4.99%
29.12%
6.37%
1,500,000
2,500,000
3,500,000
4,500,000
5,500,000
6,500,000
7,500,000
8,500,000
9,500,000
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
LPG Imports Growth Since Previous Year Expected LPG Consumption
• In 5 years since 2011, India’s LPG imports have grown almost 51.99% to 9.07 million tons
• 2nd largest importer in Asia after China – who stands at 12.095 million metric tons
• In India, LPG is primarily imported by Public (Government) Sector Companies
• About 1.7 million tons imported by private companies in 2015-16
Source : In-house Data
Sourcing of LPG – by PSU’s
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
KPC Saudi Aramco ADNOC Tasweeq
BPCL HPCL IOC
IOC HPCL BPCL TOTAL
KPC 462,000 195,000 156,000 813,000
Saudi Aramco
1,202,000
370,000 1,000,000
2,572,000
ADNOC 504,000 480,000 300,000 1,284,000
Tasweeq
1,889,000
630,000 360,000 2,879,000
TOTAL 4,057,000
1,675,000 1,816,000
7,548,000
53.74% 22.19% 24.06% 100%
Sourcing of LPG by Supplier 2015-16 (for PSU)
Source : In-house Data
Port-wise LPG Imports
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
782 kt
532 kt
52 kt
483 kt
706 kt
1603 kt
236 kt
1421 kt1287 kt
1971 kt
4 kt0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Sikk
a
Dah
ej
Pipa
vav
Pirp
av/
Mum
bai
JNPT
New
Man
galo
re
Tutic
orin
Enn
ore
Viz
ag
Hald
ia
Port
Blair
West Coast India Ports East Coast India Ports
• Out of India’s 9.08 million imports;
• WCI accounted for about 46% ( 4.16 million metric tons) of total imports
• New Mangalore @ 1.603 million tons
• ECI accounted for about 54.2% (4.92 million metric tons) of total imports
• Haldia @ 1.97 million tonsSource : In-house Data
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
Map illustrating India’s LPG
receiving facilities
Source : In-house Data
India’s Spot LPG Liftings
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Jan-May
VLGC 2 6 19 22 38 53 89 110 22LGC - 8 16 13 9 7 7 3 -MGC 2 24 38 18 13 9 22 26 10Handy Size 2 24 49 29 12 8 7 16 2TOTAL 6 64 122 82 87 91 125 155 34
Number of Indian LPG Spot Liftings through the years (as per date of enquiry)
2015 2016 (Jan-May)IOC HPCL BPCL TOTAL IOC HPCL BPCL TOTAL
VLGC 60 15 25 100 16 4 2 22LGC 3 - - 3 - - -MGC 23 3 - 26 5 - 5 10Handy Size 15 - 1 16 2 - - 2TOTAL 101 18 26 145 23 4 7 34
Company-wise Spot Liftings (as per date of enquiry)
Source : In-house Data
Indian PSU - Time Chartered fleet
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
VLGC MGC SGC Semi-Ref
IOC 4 3 1 -BPCL 2 2 1 1HPCL 3 1 - -TOTAL 9 6 2 1
• 2016 has seen lesser number of spot cargoes, primarily due to the growth of Indian PSU Time Chartered fleet.
• In 2016; the Company’s in-chartered 4 VLGC’s and IOC is in the market for 1 up to 3 more vessels for a period of 12 + 12 months
Source : In-house Data
The Way Ahead• Panama Canal opening June 2016 for VLGC’s – reducing
ton mile for USG – East trade & potentially dividing market into AG and USG
• Continuous decrease in Far East demand for LPG
• Present VLGC fleet around 220 vessels with 69 in the order book; majority will be delivered by end 2017
• Out of the 220 VLGC’s, about 38 are over 20 years in age, hence see little volume being scrapped
• Slump in the market may assist for vessels being demolished but unlikely to offset the influx of tonnages
• 2016 has seen lowest average BLPG in the past 6 years, averaging about US$ 39 thus far; and will continue to be under pressure with the tonnage inflow
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
• India has a large rural population with limited access to cooking and heating fuels; Government intends to bring LPG to every household
• By 2020; LPG demand is expected to touch 24 million metric tons
• More and improvised LPG import handling terminals – Ennore, JNPT, Mangalore
• Larger pipeline grid
• Increased tankage – Ennore, JNPT, Kandla, Haldia
• More bottling capacity – 182 million customers in FY 2015 – up 51% since FY 2010
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
• As you can see with India’s increasing imports, will only increase the seaborne trade
• India’s struggle with infrastructure development absorbs tonnage into waiting, and hence high turn around time
• As India continues to grow, so will her demand for LPG
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
18.4 19.7 20.8
21.822.5 23.3 23.9 24.3
24.8
10.3 9.8 10.6 10.8 10.8 11.0
11.2 11.2 11.2
6.68.5
9.110.6 11.5 12.0
12.3 12.6 12.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Consumption Production Imports
India’s LPG Consumption, Production, Imports – on the anvil
Source : In-house Data
RESHAMWALA SHIPBROKERS, MUMBAI – DELHI (NCR)
Reshamwala ShipbrokersEstb. 1948
Ajay Reshamwala
Reshamwala Shipbrokers
www.reshamwalashipbrokers.com