Shipping LPG - · PDF file13/06/2017 · Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg |...
Transcript of Shipping LPG - · PDF file13/06/2017 · Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg |...
Shipping – LPG
https://shippinganalyst.wordpress.com/
14 June 2017
Table of Contents
Market Balance
Company Overview
Company Specifics
Market Balance
Table of Contents
| 4Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Clarksons
Market Balance
Supply Supply/Demand
Econometric relationship between utilization and rates
Summary
Supply/Demand
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
(1,000)
(500)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Net
fleet
gro
wth
(%
)
'000 c
bm
Fleet development
Scrapping Other Deliveries Contracting Net fleet growth (%) 50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Utiliz
ation
Dem
and/S
upply
gro
wth
(y/y
)
Base case
Supply Demand Utilization
83%85%
95% 97%
77%
73%
77%
81%84%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-
5
10
15
20
25
Util
izatio
n
mcbm
Base case
Demand Excess supply Utilization
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
TC
E (
US
D/d
ay)
Theoretical utilization vs rate elasticity
ƒ = 0 + 97989 * Util 6̂.6, R 2̂ =0.9918
| 5Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg
Market Balance
LPG pricing differential between US and Far East VLGC spot rates vs theoretical rates from pricing differential
Theoretical forward VLGC rates based on forward Crude prices
Energy pricing dynamics I
LPG price differential vs theoretical VLGC TCE/d
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pri
ce d
iffe
ren
tial
(US
FOB
vs
Asi
a C
IF)
LPG
pri
ces
(USD
/t)
LPG price differential: US vs Far East
Price differential (rhs) LPG US FOB LPG Far East CIF
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
VLG
C s
po
t ra
te (T
CE/
d)
VLGC spot rate potential vs Actual spot rates
Available for VLGCs ( TCE/d) VLGC spot rates (TCE/d) opex
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
VLG
C s
po
t ra
tes
(TC
E/d
)
Bre
nt
Cru
de
(USD
/bb
l)
Theoretical future VLGC rates
Brent crude futures curve Brent crude futures curve (+ USD 10)
Available for VLGCs (TCE/d) Available for VLGCs (TCE/d)
Assuming US LPG prices remain unchanged(TCE/d) 288 338 388 438 488
264 -7,232 16,541 40,314 64,088 87,861
314 -31,006 -7,232 16,541 40,314 64,088
364 -54,779 -31,006 -7,232 16,541 40,314
414 -78,552 -54,779 -31,006 -7,232 16,541
464 -102,326 -78,552 -54,779 -31,006 -7,232
Assumptions: Latest LPG prices, bunkers = USD 336/t, opex = USD 9,000/d
US
LPG
FO
B (
USD
/t)
Far East LPG CIF (USD/t)
| 6Sources: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg
Market Balance
Feedstock switch occurs around USD 50-100 price differential Correlation: Far East Naphtha vs Brent Crude
Correlation: Far East LPG vs Naphtha
Energy pricing dynamics II
Correlation: Far East LPG vs Brent Crude
y = 8.1392x + 43.167
R² = 0.9861
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Nap
hth
a A
sia
(USD
/t)
Brent Crude oil (USD/bbl)
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Pri
ce d
iffe
ren
tial
(Nap
hth
a vs
LP
G)
Nap
hth
a &
LP
G (U
SD/t
)
Far East price differential: Naphtha vs LPG
Price differential (rhs) Naphtha LPG
y = 8.1364x + 14.253
R² = 0.8919
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
LPG
Asi
a (U
SD/t
)
Brent Crude oil (USD/bbl)
y = 1.0164x - 42.699
R² = 0.971
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
LPG
Asi
a (U
SD/t
)
Naphtha Asia (USD/t)
| 7
Source: The Shipping Analyst, Clarksons
Market Balance
Summary
Econometric overview
Demand/Supply ('000 cbm)
VLGC, base case 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Deliveries¹ 575 904 2,206 975 732 244 162 1,073 669 2,935 3,861 2,325 411 689 967
Scrapping¹ (157) (546) (453) (304) (461) (241) - - - - (161) (234) (468) (468) (386)
Other¹ (71) 0 (76) (80) (0) (0) 0 0 - - - - - - -
Contracting¹ 2,270 325 242 - 413 415 913 3,271 3,874 3,397 416 277 945 1,211 1,228
Supply² 8,279 8,438 9,685 10,945 11,296 11,222 11,445 12,291 12,978 14,759 18,975 21,320 21,951 22,161 22,467
Δ y/y 3% 2% 15% 13% 3% -1% 2% 7% 6% 14% 29% 12% 3% 1% 1%
Demand² 7,127 6,775 7,603 7,134 8,595 9,346 9,454 10,473 12,293 14,354 14,697 15,628 16,939 17,956 18,853
Δ y/y 5% -5% 12% -6% 20% 9% 1% 11% 17% 17% 2% 6% 8% 6% 5%
Utilization² 86% 80% 79% 65% 76% 83% 83% 85% 95% 97% 77% 73% 77% 81% 84%
Spot rate² (USD/day) 37,845 24,023 23,234 6,074 17,178 30,861 30,817 36,951 72,669 82,644 21,136 12,829 18,494 25,363 31,697
Vessel value, 3y² (USDm) 58 62 67 71 73
OB² 4,360 4,723 3,128 1,491 807 1,006 1,454 2,490 6,771 7,290 5,266 2,519 2,116 2,621 3,118
OB/Fleet² 53% 56% 32% 14% 7% 9% 13% 20% 52% 49% 28% 12% 10% 12% 14%
¹Sum during period ²Average during period
VLGC, high case 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Deliveries¹ 575 904 2,206 975 732 244 162 1,073 669 2,935 3,861 2,325 411 794 1,735
Scrapping¹ (157) (546) (453) (304) (461) (241) - - - - (161) (234) (468) (468) (386)
Other¹ (71) 0 (76) (80) (0) (0) 0 0 - - - - - - -
Contracting¹ 2,270 325 242 - 413 415 913 3,271 3,874 3,397 416 430 1,951 3,748 4,306
Supply² 8,279 8,438 9,685 10,945 11,296 11,222 11,445 12,291 12,978 14,759 18,975 21,225 21,380 21,128 21,672
Δ y/y 3% 2% 15% 13% 3% -1% 2% 7% 6% 14% 29% 12% 1% -1% 3%
Demand² 7,127 6,775 7,603 7,134 8,595 9,346 9,454 10,473 12,293 14,354 14,697 16,214 17,742 19,517 21,468
Δ y/y 5% -5% 12% -6% 20% 9% 1% 11% 17% 17% 2% 10% 9% 10% 10%
Utilization² 86% 80% 79% 65% 76% 83% 83% 85% 95% 97% 77% 76% 83% 92% 99%
Spot rate² (USD /day) 37,845 24,023 23,234 6,074 17,178 30,861 30,817 36,951 72,669 82,644 21,136 16,633 29,729 59,805 92,843
Vessel value, 3y² (USDm) 58 64 77 95 106
OB² 4,360 4,723 3,128 1,491 807 1,006 1,454 2,490 6,771 7,290 5,266 2,590 2,778 5,212 8,283
OB/Fleet² 53% 56% 32% 14% 7% 9% 13% 20% 52% 49% 28% 12% 13% 25% 38%
| 8
Source: The Shipping Analyst
Our historical forecasts vs actuals
Actual VLGC spot rates vs our historical and current forecasts
We foresaw the 2016 rate collapse already in our first forecast in early 2014
31
37
73
83
21
13
18
25
32
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
VLG
C t
ime
ch
arte
r eq
uiv
ale
nt
spo
t ra
tes
(USD
k/d
)
Actuals/Forecast Mar/14 May/14 Aug/14 Nov/14
Jan/15 Mar/15 Jun/15 Feb/17 Jun/17
Company Overview
Table of Contents
| 10Note: Epsilon (ε) represents asset value elasticity of NAV (ie 0.20 => ΔNAV = +20% if Δasset values = 10%). Hence, it also represents another measure of leverage.
Company Overview
Valuation matrix
Average TCE/day across peer fleet vs comparable consensus Coverage overview
Valuation
USDm Mcap EV P/sh Value +/- NAV Now 1y fwd +10% ε 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020
AVANCE NO 1,387 578 21.5 28.1 31% 37.6 0.57 0.43 0.46 0.24 84.0 12.6 6.5 4.1 8% 4% 7% 18% -10% 12% 35% 55% 0% 4% 8% 13%
BWLPG NO 4,214 1,851 29.7 37.0 25% 49.1 0.60 0.48 0.49 0.24 14.2 12.6 6.8 4.1 5% 5% 9% 26% 3% 14% 34% 53% 0% 2% 6% 10%
LPG US 417 1,152 7.6 6.9 -9% 12.3 0.62 0.51 0.52 0.19 49.6 16.4 9.3 5.9 3% 7% 11% 23% -1% 10% 21% 32% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Average 2,006 1,193 15% 0.60 0.47 0.49 0.22 49.3 13.9 7.5 4.7 5% 5% 9% 22% -3% 12% 30% 47% 0% 2% 5% 7%
Median 1,387 1,152 25% 0.60 0.48 0.49 0.24 49.6 12.6 6.8 4.1 5% 5% 9% 23% -1% 12% 34% 53% 0% 2% 6% 10%
P/NAV Liquidity/(GIBD + eq. capex) Dividend yieldFCF yieldEV/EBITDA
13,973
18,131
24,336
30,163
17,021
24,478
32,311
- -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2017 2018 2019 2020
USD
/d a
cro
ss s
ecto
r fl
eet
Avg. TCE/d vs consensus & cash break-even
TSA Implied Consensus Cash Break-Even
BUYBUY
Neutral
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
AVANCE NO BWLPG NO LPG US
Targ
et P
rice
/ S
har
e P
rice
Price Rating Value
Company Specifics
Table of Contents
| 12
Source: The Shipping Analyst
Avance Gas (AVANCE-NO)
Summary tables Quarterly cash flows & cash position
Quarterly break-even levels & TCE/day
Earnings and estimates
USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net sales 52 90 126 158
EBITDA 7 46 82 113
EBIT -33 6 41 73
PTP -55 -16 20 51
Net earnings -55 -16 20 51
EPS -0.85 -0.25 0.30 0.79 USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net operational cash flow -15 24 60 91
Free cash flow -17 20 58 91
Net cash flow -113 -20 10 39
TCE/day 10,087 17,587 24,602 30,746
Cash break-even 30,893 19,434 19,754 19,196
Liquidity 36 17 26 65
Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 822 786 748 708
Total equity 402 379 386 416
Interest bearing debt 462 429 395 363
Net interest bearing debt 426 412 368 298
Market Cap. 159 159 159 159
Enterprise value 585 572 527 457
Capex 2 4 2 - USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fwd NAV 384 420 490 571
Adj. equity ratio 44% 48% 54% 60%
FCF yield -11% 12% 36% 57%
Dividend yield 0% 4% 8% 13%
EV/EBITDA 83.2 12.5 6.5 4.0
P/E (adj.) 8.1 3.1
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
USD
m
Cash flows
Net operational cash flow Net investing cash flow
Net financing cash flow Cash balance
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
USD
/day
Break-even levels
TCE/day Cash break-even Operational break-even P&L break-even
| 13Source: The Shipping Analyst
Avance Gas (AVANCE-NO)
Valuation and target price Quarterly forward NAV and P/NAV
Quarterly forward NAV decomposition
Valuation I
USDm 1Q17 Fair value Implied
Primary assets 851 699 570
Contract value 0 0 0
Other 16 16 13
GAV 866 714 582
Net debt -413 -413 -413
Capex 0 0 0
Other -10 -10 -10
NAV 443 291 159
Shares 65 65 65
NAVPS 6.87 4.51 2.47
Share price 58.2 38.2 20.9
P/NAV 0.36 0.55 1.00
EV/GAV 0.67 0.82 1.00
Adj. Total Assets 940 788 659
Adj. Equity Ratio 47% 37% 24%
Target price NOK 28 36%
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
USD
m
Fwd. NAV
NAV (less oper. CF) Oper. CF NAV
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
P/N
AV
NA
VP
S (U
SD)
Fwd. NAV
NAVPS P/NAV
| 14
Source: The Shipping Analyst
Avance Gas (AVANCE-NO)
Impact on NAV/share from % change in asset prices % impact on NAV from % change in asset prices
Forward fleet valuation decomposition Forward fleet value and Loan To Value
Valuation II
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
Net
LTV
Pri
mar
y as
sets
(USD
m)
Net LTV
Primary assets Net LTV
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
USD
m
Fleet valuation
Fleet value, current prices Rise/Fall in asset prices Total fleet value
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ΔN
AV
Δ Asset prices
Asset value elasticity of NAV
0.2
1.3
2.3
3.4
4.5
5.6
6.7
7.8
8.8
9.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
NA
V/s
har
e (U
SD)
Δ Asset prices
Asset value elasticity of NAV
Assets Price
| 15
Source: The Shipping Analyst
Avance Gas (AVANCE-NO)
Valuation: Earnings based Valuation matrix
Valuation III
2017 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Forecast 7 46 82 113
Net profit Forecast -55 -16 20 51
EV Forecast 585 572 527 457
M.cap Current 159 159 159 159
EV/EBITDA Forecast 83.2 12.5 6.5 4.0
P/E Forecast -2.9 -9.8 8.1 3.1
EV/EBITDA Target 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
EBITDA Forecast 7 46 82 113
Implied EV 56 365 652 905
Implied M.cap -370 -47 284 607
P/imp. M.cap -0.43 -3.40 0.56 0.26
Value/sh -48.6 -6.2 37.3 79.7
P/E Target 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Net profit Forecast -55 -16 20 51
Implied M.cap -330 -98 117 306
P/imp. M.cap -0.48 -1.63 1.36 0.52
FCF yield Forecast -11% 12% 36% 57%
Div. yield Forecast 0% 4% 8% 13%
38
5047
-6
37
-13
1513
38
8
18
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Pri
ce p
er
sha
re
/sh (ccy) Price TP
| 16
Source: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg
Avance Gas (AVANCE-NO)
P&L, Year I P&L, Year II
Consensus EBITDA development Consensus target vs share price
Our estimates vs consensus
90
46
6
-16 -16
-50
-
50
100
150
200
Sales EBITDA EBIT PTP Net earnings
USD
m
TSA vs consensus range (2018E)
52
7
-33
-55 -55
-80
-60
-40
-20
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Sales EBITDA EBIT PTP Net earnings
USD
m
TSA vs consensus range (2017E)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
USD
m
Consensus' EBITDA development, past year
2017 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Pri
ce p
er s
har
e
Consensus' TP vs share price, past year
Share price Target price, consensus
| 17
Source: The Shipping Analyst
BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)
Summary tables Quarterly cash flows & cash position
Quarterly break-even levels & TCE/day
Earnings and estimates
USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net sales 339 335 421 539
EBITDA 128 140 240 338
EBIT 11 23 122 221
PTP -37 -25 75 174
Net earnings -34 -25 74 172
EPS -0.24 -0.17 0.52 1.21 USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net operational cash flow 18 92 191 289
Free cash flow 13 70 169 267
Net cash flow -15 8 32 212
TCE/day 17,858 18,675 24,071 29,579
Cash break-even 24,878 22,390 19,299 19,422
Liquidity 65 73 105 317
Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 2,314 2,218 2,124 2,029
Total equity 1,081 1,044 1,089 1,213
Interest bearing debt 1,386 1,335 1,227 1,220
Net interest bearing debt 1,320 1,262 1,122 904
Market Cap. 503 503 503 503
Enterprise value 1,820 1,761 1,622 1,403
Capex 87 22 22 22 USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fwd NAV 1,043 1,153 1,348 1,584
Adj. equity ratio 42% 46% 52% 56%
FCF yield 3% 14% 34% 53%
Dividend yield 0% 2% 6% 10%
EV/EBITDA 14.2 12.6 6.8 4.1
P/E (adj.) 6.8 2.9
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USD
m
Cash flows
Net operational cash flow Net investing cash flow
Net financing cash flow Cash balance
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
USD
/day
Break-even levels
TCE/day Cash break-even Operational break-even P&L break-even
| 18Source: The Shipping Analyst
BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)
Valuation and target price Quarterly forward NAV and P/NAV
Quarterly forward NAV decomposition
Valuation I
USDm 1Q17 Fair value Implied
Primary assets 2,385 2,003 1,702
Contract value 0 98 84
Other 85 85 72
GAV 2,469 2,186 1,857
Net debt -1,347 -1,347 -1,347
Capex 0 0 0
Other -7 -7 -7
NAV 1,115 832 503
Shares 142 142 142
NAVPS 7.86 5.86 3.55
Share price 66.6 49.6 30.0
P/NAV 0.45 0.60 1.00
EV/GAV 0.75 0.85 1.00
Adj. Total Assets 2,555 2,173 1,872
Adj. Equity Ratio 44% 38% 27%
Target price NOK 37 23%
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
P/N
AV
NA
VP
S (U
SD)
Fwd. NAV
NAVPS P/NAV
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
USD
m
Fwd. NAV
NAV (less oper. CF) Oper. CF NAV
| 19
Source: The Shipping Analyst
BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)
Impact on NAV/share from % change in asset prices % impact on NAV from % change in asset prices
Forward fleet valuation decomposition Forward fleet value and Loan To Value
Valuation II
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ΔN
AV
Δ Asset prices
Asset value elasticity of NAV
0.2
1.6
3.0
4.4
5.9
7.3
8.7
10.1
11.5
12.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
NA
V/s
har
e (U
SD)
Δ Asset prices
Asset value elasticity of NAV
Assets Price
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
Net
LTV
Pri
mar
y as
sets
(USD
m)
Net LTV
Primary assets Net LTV
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
USD
m
Fleet valuation
Fleet value, current prices Rise/Fall in asset prices Total fleet value
| 20
Source: The Shipping Analyst
BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)
Valuation: Earnings based Valuation matrix
Valuation III
2017 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Forecast 128 140 240 338
Net profit Forecast -34 -25 74 172
EV Forecast 1,820 1,761 1,622 1,403
M.cap Current 503 503 503 503
EV/EBITDA Forecast 14.2 12.6 6.8 4.1
P/E Forecast -14.7 -20.3 6.8 2.9
EV/EBITDA Target 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
EBITDA Forecast 128 140 240 338
Implied EV 1,026 1,118 1,916 2,708
Implied M.cap -291 -140 797 1,808
P/imp. M.cap -1.73 -3.59 0.63 0.28
Value/sh -17.3 -8.4 47.6 107.9
P/E Target 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Net profit Forecast -34 -25 74 172
Implied M.cap -205 -149 445 1,034
P/imp. M.cap -2.46 -3.39 1.13 0.49
FCF yield Forecast 3% 14% 34% 53%
Div. yield Forecast 0% 2% 6% 10%
50
63 62
-8
48
-9
27
21
50
7
18
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Pri
ce p
er
sha
re
/sh (ccy) Price TP
| 21
Source: The Shipping Analyst, Bloomberg
BW LPG (BWLPG-NO)
P&L, Year I P&L, Year II
Consensus EBITDA development Consensus target vs share price
Our estimates vs consensus
339
128
11
-37 -34
-100
-
100
200
300
400
500
Sales EBITDA EBIT PTP Net earnings
USD
m
TSA vs consensus range (2017E)
335
140
23 -25 -25
-200
-100
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Sales EBITDA EBIT PTP Net earnings
USD
m
TSA vs consensus range (2018E)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
USD
m
Consensus' EBITDA development, past year
2017 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Pri
ce p
er s
har
e
Consensus' TP vs share price, past year
Share price Target price, consensus
| 22
Source: The Shipping Analyst
Dorian LPG (LPG-US)
Summary tables Quarterly cash flows & cash position
Quarterly break-even levels & TCE/day
Earnings and estimates
USDm (calendar years) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net sales 114 161 205 250
EBITDA 24 71 115 160
EBIT -41 6 50 94
PTP -70 -23 22 66
Net earnings -70 -23 22 66
EPS -1.27 -0.41 0.39 1.20 USDm (calendar years) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net operational cash flow -4 43 87 131
Free cash flow -6 43 87 131
Net cash flow -23 32 28 77
TCE/day 14,177 19,994 25,530 31,024
Cash break-even 22,892 22,307 22,100 21,503
Liquidity 23 55 83 160
Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 1,604 1,539 1,473 1,408
Total equity 916 893 915 981
Interest bearing debt 803 803 744 690
Net interest bearing debt 780 748 661 530
Market Cap. 416 416 416 416
Enterprise value 1,196 1,164 1,077 946
Capex 2 - - - USDm (calendar years) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Fwd NAV 821 881 954 1,060
Adj. equity ratio 49% 51% 55% 59%
FCF yield -1% 10% 21% 32%
Dividend yield 0% 0% 0% 0%
EV/EBITDA 49.6 16.4 9.3 5.9
P/E (adj.) 19.3 6.3
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
USD
/day
Break-even levels
TCE/day Cash break-even Operational break-even P&L break-even
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USD
m
Cash flows
Net operational cash flow Net investing cash flow
Net financing cash flow Cash balance
| 23Source: The Shipping Analyst
Dorian LPG (LPG-US)
Valuation and target price Quarterly forward NAV and P/NAV
Quarterly forward NAV decomposition
Valuation I
USDm 3Q17 Fair value Implied
Primary assets 1,620 1,267 1,036
Contract value 0 54 45
Other 97 97 79
GAV 1,717 1,419 1,160
Net debt -735 -735 -735
Capex 0 0 0
Other -9 -9 -9
NAV 973 675 416
Shares 55 55 55
NAVPS 17.7 12.3 7.6
Share price 17.7 12.3 7.6
P/NAV 0.43 0.62 1.00
EV/GAV 0.68 0.82 1.00
Adj. Total Assets 1,760 1,408 1,177
Adj. Equity Ratio 55% 48% 35%
Target price NOK 6.9 -9%
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
P/N
AV
NA
VP
S (U
SD)
Fwd. NAV
NAVPS P/NAV
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
USD
m
Fwd. NAV
NAV (less oper. CF) Oper. CF NAV
| 24
Source: The Shipping Analyst
Dorian LPG (LPG-US)
Impact on NAV/share from % change in asset prices % impact on NAV from % change in asset prices
Forward fleet valuation decomposition Forward fleet value and Loan To Value
Valuation II
0.8
3.1
5.4
7.7
10.0
12.3
14.6
16.9
19.2
21.5
23.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
NA
V/s
har
e (U
SD)
Δ Asset prices
Asset value elasticity of NAVAssets Price
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%ΔN
AV
Δ Asset prices
Asset value elasticity of NAV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
Net
LTV
Pri
mar
y as
sets
(USD
m)
Net LTV
Primary assets Net LTV
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
USD
m
Fleet valuation
Fleet value, current prices Rise/Fall in asset prices Total fleet value
| 25
Source: The Shipping Analyst
Dorian LPG (LPG-US)
Valuation: Earnings based Valuation matrix
Valuation III
2017 2018 2019 2020
EBITDA Forecast 24 71 115 160
Net profit Forecast -70 -23 22 66
EV Forecast 1,196 1,164 1,077 946
M.cap Current 416 416 416 416
EV/EBITDA Forecast 49.6 16.4 9.3 5.9
P/E Forecast -6.0 -18.4 19.3 6.3
EV/EBITDA Target 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0
EBITDA Forecast 24 71 115 160
Implied EV 193 569 923 1,277
Implied M.cap -587 -180 262 747
P/imp. M.cap -0.71 -2.32 1.59 0.56
Value/sh -10.7 -3.3 4.8 13.6
P/E Target 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Net profit Forecast -70 -23 22 66
Implied M.cap -418 -136 130 395
P/imp. M.cap -1.00 -3.06 3.21 1.05
FCF yield Forecast -1% 10% 21% 32%
Div. yield Forecast 0% 0% 0% 0%
12.3
14.9 14.6
-3.3
4.8
-2.5
2.4
3.9
7.9
0.0 0.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Pri
ce p
er
sha
re
/sh (ccy) Price TP
The Shipping Analyst
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