METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH GROUP

INDIA HEADQUARTERSG 31 Quest Off icesDLF Golf Course RoadGurgaon 122 002 India

GLOBAL RESEARCH CENTERSIDBI Innovat ion CenterIndian Inst itute of TechnologyKanpur 208 016 India

NORTH AMERICA350 Fif th Avenue59 t h Floor, New York CityNY 10118 USA

Monsoon and Temperature OutlookEarly Nov 2016

• The IRI/CPC ENSO outlook as on mid-October 2016 indicates that the tropical Pacific SST anomaly was slightly cooler than -0.5C, the weak La Niña threshold (average Nino-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5 deg. C). Most ENSO prediction models indicate SSTs near or slightly cooler than the threshold of La Niña during fall, then weakening to cool-neutral during winter. There is more than 50% chance that ENSO will stay neutral during southwest monsoon 2017.

• No significant departures from long period average are expected in the distribution of monthly average precipitation and maximum & minimum temperatures over most parts of the country.

S Y N O P S I S C HA R T S

Mid-Oct IRI/CPC Model-based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast

S Y N O P S I S C HA R T S

S Y N O P S I S C HA R T S

Rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Nov2016 based on 20161106 cfsv2

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Rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Dec2016 based on 20161106 cfsv2

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Rainfall anomaly (mm/day) Jan2017 based on 20161106 cfsv2

Max. Temperature Nov2016 based on 20161106 cfsv2

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Max. Temperature Dec2016 based on 20161106 cfsv2

S Y N O P S I S C HA R T S

Max. Temperature Jan2017 based on 20161106 cfsv2

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Min. Temperature Nov2016 based on 20161106 cfsv2

S Y N O P S I S C HA R T S

Min. Temperature Dec2016 based on 20161106 cfsv2

S Y N O P S I S C HA R T S

Min. Temperature Jan2017 based on 20161106 cfsv2

METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH GROUP

INDIA HEADQUARTERSG 31 Quest Off icesDLF Golf Course RoadGurgaon 122 002 India

GLOBAL RESEARCH CENTERSIDBI Innovat ion CenterIndian Inst itute of TechnologyKanpur 208 016 India

NORTH AMERICA350 Fif th Avenue59 t h Floor, New York CityNY 10118 USA

THANK YOU

Monsoon and Temperature OutlookEarly Nov 2016