UCD Micheal Smurfit Business SchoolSustainability Club Seminar

Ireland becoming a low carbon

competitive economy

Laura BurkeDirector General

EPA

17th October 2012

Contents

� Need for a low carbon economy� Ireland Greenhouse Gas Emissions� Models for a low carbon economy� Plans and challenges for Ireland� Plans and challenges for Ireland� Behavioural Change

Need for a low carbon economy

� Climate Change� Primary environmental and societal challenge� High dependence on fossil fuels � Agriculture, land use and land use changes

� Global Actions� UNFCCC and Kyoto, adopted 2C goal under a shared vision

2009/10� Emissions to peak before 2020 and reduced by 50% by 2050

� EU Action� Leader on global actions � Advocate for the 2C goal, since 1997 � 20%-30% reduction by 2020, 80% reduction 2050**Based on IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

kt C

O2e

q

Irish Greenhouse Gas Trends 1990-2011

+27%-4%

-15%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

kt C

O

Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste

Sectoral Emission Trends 1990-2011

5

10

15

20

25

Mto

nnes

CO

2eq

0

Energy Residential Industry & Commercial

Agriculture Transport Waste

Energy20.8%

Residential11.5%

Industry & Commercial

14.0%

Agriculture32.1%

Transport19.7%

Waste1.8%

2011

Projected Emissions: 2011- 2020

30

35

40

45

50

eq, M

tonn

es

0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CO

2eq,

Mto

nnes

Agriculture Transport Residential Energy Industrial & Commercial Waste Annual Limits

A Profile of EU greenhouse gas emissions – 80% below 1990 levels

A Profile of what Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions might look like to 2050

100%

120%

140%

100%

120%

140%

Energy

Residential

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Industry & Commercial

Transport

Agriculture

Waste

Sweden

� Climate Bill 2008/9� An emissions- neutral country by 2050� Swedish Environmental Protection Agency drawing up

scenarios and policy instrument proposalsscenarios and policy instrument proposals� Minister for the Environment appointing a reference group

with representatives of environmental organisations, the business sector and the research community, among others

� an active dialogue and collaboration - regional and municipal level, the business sector and the research community.

Norway

� Adoption of a carbon tax in 1991.� 70% of GHG emissions covered by economic instruments

� Carbon Neutral by 2030� Carbon Neutral by 2030� 30% reduction by 2020

� One of three largest buyers of carbon credits in world� Purchase of carbon credits to supplement domestic efforts� Aim to be a catalyst for market development

EPA – Low Carbon Economy

� National Framework� Needs actions that have a long term perspective� Focus should be on domestic action� All sectors must contribute� All sectors must contribute� Cost effective mitigation solutions available

� SEAI and Teagasc MACC curves

� Need to understand drivers of action and inaction� Transport and Agriculture

Legal Basis

� National Climate Strategy 2000 and 2007� 2011- Development of national climate policy

� Independent Study by NESC� Policy options 2020- June 2012� Transition to a low carbon future by 2050- Dec 2012

� Public consultation� Public consultation� Consideration by Oireachtas Committee and stakeholders

� Climate Change Legislation likely� Head of Bill likely in late 2012 or early in 2013� Bill by the end of 2013 � Implementation will be critical

Irish Challenges and Opportunities

� Unique Greenhouse Gas Profile within the EU� Transport and Agriculture

� 50% of total emissions 2011� 71% of non EU- ETS emissions

� Agriculture � Unique profile in the EU � Are there opportunities? Land use, bio-energy, others� Not-unique globally: New Zealand and most developing countries

How to realise these opportunities?

A marginal abatement cost curve for Irish agricultu re – Teagasc Submission to National Climate Policy C onsultation

How to realise these opportunities?

Irish Challenges and Opportunities

� Energy� 21% emissions 2011

� Highly Electrified Economy� Large scale use of renewable energy (wind, wave, tidal, solar and

biofuels) � Decarbonise other sectors

Behavioural change

Requires:� Information� Leadership (by doing!)�� Regulation� Incentivisation

�Taxation� Investment (e.g.

subsidies, infrastructure)

Putting a price on carbon – emissions trading

15

20

25

2eq

-9%-16%

+1%-9%

0

5

10

15

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mto

nnes

, CO

2

30% drop in emissions from the Emissions Trading Se ctor between 2005 and 2011

Putting a price on carbon - carbon tax

� The carbon tax was first applied in 2010 to mainly, the non-traded sectors, transport and heat in buildings

� In transport – emissions have fallen by 22% since peak in � In transport – emissions have fallen by 22% since peak in 2007

� Recession and other policy influences at play but carbon tax has also played a role?

� Carbon tax has yet to be applied to coal and peat, the most carbon intensive of all fossil fuels

166.1 167.7 167.2 166.7 167.9166.1

161.7164.0

158.2

144.0150

160

170

180

Incentives- CO2 emissions of new cars

144.0

132.8

128.0125.8

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

CO2 g

/km

Source : SEAI (2012).

Change in VRT and Motor Taxfor new cars

Resource Efficiency

� Global population 9 billion by 2050� 3 billion more middle class consumers � Increases in demand for resources

� OECD� Resource Use at existing level a barrier to future economic growth

� Resource Efficiency

� Resources Efficiency programme for hotels, catering companies & restaurants

� Resources use mapping (waste, water, & energy)� Certification & Award scheme, 270 members

o 140 of which are hotelso 140 of which are hotelso Representing >16% of Irish Hotels

� In 2011: o 6,400t waste reduction (equivalent to >6,000 households)o 352 million litres water savedo 39M kWh energy saved

� In 2011 €5.6M saved by members (recurring saving too!)

� Partnership Resource Efficiency programme with Heal th Services Executive

� Resources use mapping (waste, water, & energy) � Concentration on Food Waste� 30 healthcare facilities participating� 30 healthcare facilities participating

- 50% of national Acute beds in Ireland (~8,000 beds)- ~800 Community care beds

� 1,700t food wastage identified, costing €3.7M/annum (for purchase, prepare & dispose)

� ~800t non-risk waste in Risk Waste Bins, costing ~€700,000 per annum� 2,000 t recyclable waste in Residuals bins, costing €220,000 per annum

Conclusions

� Now is the time to set both the right level of ambition and the right pace of transition to a low-carbon economy

� Choice is not between growth and non-growth – it is between high-carbon growth and low-carbon growthhigh-carbon growth and low-carbon growth

� Deployment requires clear, consistent and effective policies and incentives

� Changes in lifestyle and behaviour barriers need to be addressed - potential for wide ranging, long-term impact