October 1, 2003 1

Land Use, other Natural Resources Uses, and Food Security

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI

Hohenheim

GeWiSoLa, Oct 1, 2003

October 1, 2003 2

Some Big Pictures on

Agriculture and Food

Extent of Agriculture

Consumption

Value

October 1, 2003 3

Extent of Global Agriculture (Source: IFPRI

reinterpretation of USGS EPC 1998.99)

October 1, 2003 4

Spatial Distribution of Calorie

Consumption (Calories/km2) (Source: IFPRI calculation based on

FAOSTAT 2003; CESIN 2000)

October 1, 2003 5

Value of Agricultural Crops, 1995-1997(Source: IFPRI calculation based on FAOSTAT 1999)

October 1, 2003 6

Number of food-insecure people,

1970, 1999, and 2015 (trend)

Source: FAO (2000a, 2002); Bruinsma(2003).

959

799

610

1970 1999 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200Millions

East & Southeast Asia

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America

West Asia & North Africa

October 1, 2003 7

Questions:

What roles do land and natural resource

use play for food security?

What roles for land and resource related

policies and institutions in shaping food

security?

What emerging food security risks related

to land and natural resource use?

October 1, 2003 8

1. Conceptual issues

2. Key Developments in Global

Agriculture and Resource Use

3. Selected Risks in the World Food

Systems: Scenarios

4. Responses with Policy and Research

Overview of Lecture

October 1, 2003 9

Conceptual Issue 1: Linkages

It does not make sense to focus on land use/

food security-links in isolation, because of

Resource linkages (e.g. land and water use;

land use and bio-diversity)

Factor (market) linkages (e.g. land and

labor)

Substitutions (e.g. land and technology)

October 1, 2003 10

Conceptual issue 2:

Access and Availability

Land and other natural resource

availability, distribution, and uses do

impact on food security via …

Access to resources and thereby to food at

household levels (in developing countries)

Availability of food quantities globally (and

locally in developing countries)

October 1, 2003 11

Conceptual Issue 3:

Is degradation always “bad”?

There is no necessary causal relationship between poverty and natural resource degradation (and visa versa):

Downward spiral? (poverty-degradation-poverty…?)

or

Substitution of assets for development? (depleting natural resources for investment in human capital, for instance)

October 1, 2003 12

Conceptual Issue 4: Exit Strategies

High population growth with low returns to capital (“poverty trap”)

What to do?

Increase return to some capital (nature or/and other)

Reduce pop. growth (girls’ education, family planning)

Promote investments and savings (labor mobilization for soil and water conservation)

Incentives for institutional innovation

October 1, 2003 13

Conceptual Issue 5:

Trade-off versus synergy?

Policies for sustainable development

Endogenous intensification

Environmental Kuznets curves

Technology – driven intensification

Integrated conservation and development

programs (Lee, Barrett. 2000)

October 1, 2003 14

1. Conceptual issues

2. Key Developments in Global

Agriculture and Resource Use

3. Selected Risks in the World Food

Systems: Scenarios

4. Responses with Policy and Research

Overview of Lecture

October 1, 2003 15

A. Land and Natural Resources Use

B. Production Systems and Structures

C. Technology

D. Trade and Markets

Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use

October 1, 2003 16

A. Land and Natural Resources

Use

• Land scarcity

• Declining soil fertility

• Escalating competition over water

• Lack of investment in genetic resource

conservation and sustainable utilization

Key Developments in Global

Agriculture and Resource Use

October 1, 2003 17

Land Scarcity(source: WDI 2002)

rate of change

1979-81 1997-99

East Asia & Pacific 0.12 0.1 -17%

Latin America & Carib. 0.32 0.27 -16%

Middle East & N. Africa 0.29 0.2 -31%

South Asia 0.23 0.16 -30%

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.32 0.24 -25%

Arable land

hectares

per capitaRegions

October 1, 2003 18

Severity of Soil Degradation within PAGE

Agricultural Extent (Source: GLASOD; Oldeman et al 1991-disputed)

October 1, 2003 19

Taxonomy (Source: Lopez 1998)

Type 1: Low but growing pop. density, limited integration with rest of economy, fragile nat. resource base (Sub-Saharan Africa)

Type 2: High pop. density, few opportunities to integrate with overall economy, fragile nat. resource base (South Asia)

Type 3: Moderate to high pop. density, high integration with national and international economy, fragile nat. resource base (Central Am., parts of East Asia)

Type 4: Moderate to high pop density, high integration with national economy, stable natural resource base (most industrial countries)

October 1, 2003 20

B. Production Systems and

Structures

• Growing land policy conflicts

• Non-productive and non-sustainable

smallholder systems

Key Developments in Global

Agriculture and Resource Use

October 1, 2003 21

Approximated world farm size distribution, late 1990s

[Sources: von Braun, 2003, Estimates based on FAO World Agricultural Census (1990) and Supplement to FAO World Agricultural Census (various years, 1990–97), and various country statistics.]

Farm size (hectares) % of all farms # of farms (millions)

< 1 73.20 334.00

1–2 11.70 53.30

2–5 8.90 40.30

5–50 5.30 24.60

>50 0.90 4.00

Total 100.00 456.10

October 1, 2003 22

Inequality of landownership (1980s) and

average annual agricultural growth rate for

selected countries, 1980–2000

[Sources: Lipton (2001); IFAD (2002); Deininger and Squire (1998);

WDI (2002); and Adams (2002)]

Land Ginis and Agricultural Growth Rate, selected countries

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Gini Coeffecient of Land Inequality

Av

erag

e A

nn

ual A

gri

cultu

ral G

row

th R

ate

October 1, 2003 23

C. Technology• Unbalanced soil fertility management

• Irrigation limits

• Crop bio-technology ?

• Growing role of info. Technology ?

• Diminishing public investment in

agriculture

Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use

October 1, 2003 24

Application of Commercial (Inorganic)

Fertilizer

October 1, 2003 25

Area Equipped For Irrigation by

Growing Zone Period (Source: Doell and Siebert 1999; FAO/IASA 1999)

October 1, 2003 26

1.7

1.4

0.5

-0.2

1971-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-0.5

(Source: P. Pardey and N. Beintema 2001.)

Public Agricultural Research Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa,

1976-96: not sufficient to address risks

Percent

October 1, 2003 27

D. Trade and Markets

• WTO agriculture talks in disarray

• Trade barriers between and within

countries

• Lack of infrastructure

• Growth of the retail industry

Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use

October 1, 2003 28

1. Conceptual issues

2. Key Developments in Global

Agriculture and Resource Use

3. Selected Risks in the World Food

Systems: Scenarios

4. Responses with Policy and Research

Overview of Lecture

October 1, 2003 29

Three World Food ScenariosWhat If …

A. What if growth in agricultural production slows down in India and China?

China’s net cereal imports double from 48 mmt in baseline to 89 mmt

India shifts from self-sufficiency in baseline scenario to net importer of 30 mmt

B. What if crop yields grow more slowly than in baseline?

Sharp increase in cereal prices: rice 46% and

maize 34% relative to baseline

C. What if water policies change, producing a water crisis? (Rosegrant et al, 2002)

October 1, 2003 30

Annual cereal yield growth rate under different water scenarios

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Developing

countries

Developed

countries

World

per

cen

t p

er y

ear

1982-1995 1995-2025 Business as Usual

1995-2025 Water Crisis 1995-2025 Sustainable Water Use

October 1, 2003 31

International grain pricesunder different water scenarios

0

100

200

300

400

Rice Wheat Maize

US

$ p

er m

t

1995 2025 Business as Usual

2025 Water Crisis 2025 Sustainable Water Use

October 1, 2003 32

1. Conceptual issues

2. Key Developments in Global

Agriculture and Resource Use

3. Selected Risks in the World Food

Systems: Scenarios

4. Responses with Policy and Research

Overview of Lecture

October 1, 2003 33

Questions

What roles do land and natural resources

play for food security?

What roles for land and resource related

policies and institutions in shaping food

security?

What emerging risks in land and natural

resource use?

October 1, 2003 34

1. What roles do land and natural

resources play for food security?

Depends on time dimension, scale, context:

Long run

Global

Developing country context

Local context

Nature of food security problem

October 1, 2003 35

2. What roles for land and resource

related policies and institutions

in shaping food security?Essential - but different - at

Global

National

Local

levels

Diversity of contexts (re: taxonomy)

October 1, 2003 36

Specific Policies for Institutional

Innovation and Reform

Decentralization and user groups for resource

management?

Land reforms for equity (business approach)

Agricultural R&D- increased public sector funding

and coordination.

Strengthening market institutions and coordination

Investing in infrastructure for mobility

Investing in human capital

October 1, 2003 37

3. What emerging risks in land

and natural resource use?

Fast and/or Slow Onset Disasters for Agriculture

Adverse resource management and technology interactions

Governance, power, and natural resource exploitation

Water / Health / Food interactions

October 1, 2003 38

Elements of research agenda

Further exploring the linkages between agricultural systems, food security and natural resource degradation

Strengthening empirical basis to analyze and compare poverty research between agro-ecological zones

Agro-technology: poverty and natural resource impacts

The drivers of dynamics of institutional and organizational innovation