Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security
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Transcript of Land Uses, Other Natural Resources Uses and Food Security
October 1, 2003 1
Land Use, other Natural Resources Uses, and Food Security
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI
Hohenheim
GeWiSoLa, Oct 1, 2003
October 1, 2003 2
Some Big Pictures on
Agriculture and Food
Extent of Agriculture
Consumption
Value
October 1, 2003 3
Extent of Global Agriculture (Source: IFPRI
reinterpretation of USGS EPC 1998.99)
October 1, 2003 4
Spatial Distribution of Calorie
Consumption (Calories/km2) (Source: IFPRI calculation based on
FAOSTAT 2003; CESIN 2000)
October 1, 2003 5
Value of Agricultural Crops, 1995-1997(Source: IFPRI calculation based on FAOSTAT 1999)
October 1, 2003 6
Number of food-insecure people,
1970, 1999, and 2015 (trend)
Source: FAO (2000a, 2002); Bruinsma(2003).
959
799
610
1970 1999 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Millions
East & Southeast Asia
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
West Asia & North Africa
October 1, 2003 7
Questions:
What roles do land and natural resource
use play for food security?
What roles for land and resource related
policies and institutions in shaping food
security?
What emerging food security risks related
to land and natural resource use?
October 1, 2003 8
1. Conceptual issues
2. Key Developments in Global
Agriculture and Resource Use
3. Selected Risks in the World Food
Systems: Scenarios
4. Responses with Policy and Research
Overview of Lecture
October 1, 2003 9
Conceptual Issue 1: Linkages
It does not make sense to focus on land use/
food security-links in isolation, because of
Resource linkages (e.g. land and water use;
land use and bio-diversity)
Factor (market) linkages (e.g. land and
labor)
Substitutions (e.g. land and technology)
October 1, 2003 10
Conceptual issue 2:
Access and Availability
Land and other natural resource
availability, distribution, and uses do
impact on food security via …
Access to resources and thereby to food at
household levels (in developing countries)
Availability of food quantities globally (and
locally in developing countries)
October 1, 2003 11
Conceptual Issue 3:
Is degradation always “bad”?
There is no necessary causal relationship between poverty and natural resource degradation (and visa versa):
Downward spiral? (poverty-degradation-poverty…?)
or
Substitution of assets for development? (depleting natural resources for investment in human capital, for instance)
October 1, 2003 12
Conceptual Issue 4: Exit Strategies
High population growth with low returns to capital (“poverty trap”)
What to do?
Increase return to some capital (nature or/and other)
Reduce pop. growth (girls’ education, family planning)
Promote investments and savings (labor mobilization for soil and water conservation)
Incentives for institutional innovation
October 1, 2003 13
Conceptual Issue 5:
Trade-off versus synergy?
Policies for sustainable development
Endogenous intensification
Environmental Kuznets curves
Technology – driven intensification
Integrated conservation and development
programs (Lee, Barrett. 2000)
October 1, 2003 14
1. Conceptual issues
2. Key Developments in Global
Agriculture and Resource Use
3. Selected Risks in the World Food
Systems: Scenarios
4. Responses with Policy and Research
Overview of Lecture
October 1, 2003 15
A. Land and Natural Resources Use
B. Production Systems and Structures
C. Technology
D. Trade and Markets
Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use
October 1, 2003 16
A. Land and Natural Resources
Use
• Land scarcity
• Declining soil fertility
• Escalating competition over water
• Lack of investment in genetic resource
conservation and sustainable utilization
Key Developments in Global
Agriculture and Resource Use
October 1, 2003 17
Land Scarcity(source: WDI 2002)
rate of change
1979-81 1997-99
East Asia & Pacific 0.12 0.1 -17%
Latin America & Carib. 0.32 0.27 -16%
Middle East & N. Africa 0.29 0.2 -31%
South Asia 0.23 0.16 -30%
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.32 0.24 -25%
Arable land
hectares
per capitaRegions
October 1, 2003 18
Severity of Soil Degradation within PAGE
Agricultural Extent (Source: GLASOD; Oldeman et al 1991-disputed)
October 1, 2003 19
Taxonomy (Source: Lopez 1998)
Type 1: Low but growing pop. density, limited integration with rest of economy, fragile nat. resource base (Sub-Saharan Africa)
Type 2: High pop. density, few opportunities to integrate with overall economy, fragile nat. resource base (South Asia)
Type 3: Moderate to high pop. density, high integration with national and international economy, fragile nat. resource base (Central Am., parts of East Asia)
Type 4: Moderate to high pop density, high integration with national economy, stable natural resource base (most industrial countries)
October 1, 2003 20
B. Production Systems and
Structures
• Growing land policy conflicts
• Non-productive and non-sustainable
smallholder systems
Key Developments in Global
Agriculture and Resource Use
October 1, 2003 21
Approximated world farm size distribution, late 1990s
[Sources: von Braun, 2003, Estimates based on FAO World Agricultural Census (1990) and Supplement to FAO World Agricultural Census (various years, 1990–97), and various country statistics.]
Farm size (hectares) % of all farms # of farms (millions)
< 1 73.20 334.00
1–2 11.70 53.30
2–5 8.90 40.30
5–50 5.30 24.60
>50 0.90 4.00
Total 100.00 456.10
October 1, 2003 22
Inequality of landownership (1980s) and
average annual agricultural growth rate for
selected countries, 1980–2000
[Sources: Lipton (2001); IFAD (2002); Deininger and Squire (1998);
WDI (2002); and Adams (2002)]
Land Ginis and Agricultural Growth Rate, selected countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Gini Coeffecient of Land Inequality
Av
erag
e A
nn
ual A
gri
cultu
ral G
row
th R
ate
October 1, 2003 23
C. Technology• Unbalanced soil fertility management
• Irrigation limits
• Crop bio-technology ?
• Growing role of info. Technology ?
• Diminishing public investment in
agriculture
Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use
October 1, 2003 24
Application of Commercial (Inorganic)
Fertilizer
October 1, 2003 25
Area Equipped For Irrigation by
Growing Zone Period (Source: Doell and Siebert 1999; FAO/IASA 1999)
October 1, 2003 26
1.7
1.4
0.5
-0.2
1971-81 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
-0.5
(Source: P. Pardey and N. Beintema 2001.)
Public Agricultural Research Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa,
1976-96: not sufficient to address risks
Percent
October 1, 2003 27
D. Trade and Markets
• WTO agriculture talks in disarray
• Trade barriers between and within
countries
• Lack of infrastructure
• Growth of the retail industry
Key Developments in Global Agriculture and Resource Use
October 1, 2003 28
1. Conceptual issues
2. Key Developments in Global
Agriculture and Resource Use
3. Selected Risks in the World Food
Systems: Scenarios
4. Responses with Policy and Research
Overview of Lecture
October 1, 2003 29
Three World Food ScenariosWhat If …
A. What if growth in agricultural production slows down in India and China?
China’s net cereal imports double from 48 mmt in baseline to 89 mmt
India shifts from self-sufficiency in baseline scenario to net importer of 30 mmt
B. What if crop yields grow more slowly than in baseline?
Sharp increase in cereal prices: rice 46% and
maize 34% relative to baseline
C. What if water policies change, producing a water crisis? (Rosegrant et al, 2002)
October 1, 2003 30
Annual cereal yield growth rate under different water scenarios
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Developing
countries
Developed
countries
World
per
cen
t p
er y
ear
1982-1995 1995-2025 Business as Usual
1995-2025 Water Crisis 1995-2025 Sustainable Water Use
October 1, 2003 31
International grain pricesunder different water scenarios
0
100
200
300
400
Rice Wheat Maize
US
$ p
er m
t
1995 2025 Business as Usual
2025 Water Crisis 2025 Sustainable Water Use
October 1, 2003 32
1. Conceptual issues
2. Key Developments in Global
Agriculture and Resource Use
3. Selected Risks in the World Food
Systems: Scenarios
4. Responses with Policy and Research
Overview of Lecture
October 1, 2003 33
Questions
What roles do land and natural resources
play for food security?
What roles for land and resource related
policies and institutions in shaping food
security?
What emerging risks in land and natural
resource use?
October 1, 2003 34
1. What roles do land and natural
resources play for food security?
Depends on time dimension, scale, context:
Long run
Global
Developing country context
Local context
Nature of food security problem
October 1, 2003 35
2. What roles for land and resource
related policies and institutions
in shaping food security?Essential - but different - at
Global
National
Local
levels
Diversity of contexts (re: taxonomy)
October 1, 2003 36
Specific Policies for Institutional
Innovation and Reform
Decentralization and user groups for resource
management?
Land reforms for equity (business approach)
Agricultural R&D- increased public sector funding
and coordination.
Strengthening market institutions and coordination
Investing in infrastructure for mobility
Investing in human capital
October 1, 2003 37
3. What emerging risks in land
and natural resource use?
Fast and/or Slow Onset Disasters for Agriculture
Adverse resource management and technology interactions
Governance, power, and natural resource exploitation
Water / Health / Food interactions
October 1, 2003 38
Elements of research agenda
Further exploring the linkages between agricultural systems, food security and natural resource degradation
Strengthening empirical basis to analyze and compare poverty research between agro-ecological zones
Agro-technology: poverty and natural resource impacts
The drivers of dynamics of institutional and organizational innovation