Post on 25-May-2020
Lamb Market: Situation
and Outlook
Lamb Council and American Lamb Board and Policy
Forum
Denver, CO
January 27, 2017
James G. Robb
Director, LMIC
Website: www.lmic.info
6 USDA Members:
ERS
APHIS
GIPSA
13 Associate Members:
AFBF
ASI
NCBA
NPB
CME-Group
Canadian Consortium
Noble Foundation
CoBank
TCFA
CWB
TCU
NWFCS
DLR
28 U.S. Land Grant Universities:NASSWAOBAMS
USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS,
and ERS
Forecasts by – LMIC
25
30
35
40
45
50
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
LAMB AND YEARLING SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
LAMB AND YEARLING DRESSED WEIGHTFederally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
FEEDER LAMB PRICES3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly
Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICESNational Direct, Hot Carcass, Weekly
Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
BOXED LAMB SINGLE LEG PRICESTrotter Off, 5 Day Rolling Average
Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
JAN APR JUL OCT
$ Per Cwt.
BOXED LAMB LOIN PRICESTrimmed 4x4, 5 Day Rolling Average
Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV
Mil. Pounds
LAMB AND MUTTON IN COLD STORAGEFrozen, End of the Month
Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016
Data Source: USDA-NASS
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Mil. Pounds
US LAMB IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly
Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Percent
US LAMB AND MUTTON IMPORTSAs a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual
Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
% CHANGE SHEEP AND LAMB INVENTORY
JANUARY 1, 2015 TO JANUARY 1, 2016
Data Source: USDA-NASS
Other States: 10
U.S. Total: 1
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
JAN APR JUL OCT
Thou. Head
MATURE SHEEP SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly
Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017
Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Mil. Head
BREEDING EWES 1 YEAR & OLDERProjections, January 1, U.S., Annual
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
40
90
140
190
240
290
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Thou. Head
COLORADO LAMBS ON FEEDMonthly
Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016
Data Source: USDA-AMS
34.0
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
41.0
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Mil. Pounds
COMMERCIAL LAMB AND MUTTON PRODUCTIONUS, Quarterly
Avg. 2011/15 2016 2017 2018
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC
Bil. Pounds
Tho
usa
nd
s
TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTIONUS, Quarterly
Avg. 2011/15 2016 2017 2018
Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC
QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL SHEEP AND LAMB SLAUGHTER,
PRODUCTION AND LAMB PRICES a
01/26/17
% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l % Chg. Sl. Lambs % Chg. Fdr. Lamb % Chg.
Year Comm'l from Dressed from Lamb from Natl. Direct from 3-Market Avg from
Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago Carc. Weightb
Year Ago 60-90 lbsc
Year Ago
(1,000 Head) (Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) ($/Cwt.) ($/Cwt.)
2015
I 536 -0.4 70 1.2 37.5 0.8 305.98 2.2 208.09 -6.9
II 564 -7.4 69 -0.7 39.1 -8.0 287.94 1.5 195.80 0.5
III 556 -4.6 66 2.1 36.9 -2.6 296.94 0.5 186.07 -6.7
IV 568 -2.1 65 -1.6 36.9 -3.7 301.01 -5.9 179.56 -11.1
Year 2224 -3.7 68 0.2 150.4 -3.5 297.97 -0.6 192.38 -6.1
2016
I 543 1.3 70 0.0 38.0 1.3 270.40 -11.6 201.39 -3.2
II 570 1.1 68 -1.3 39.0 -0.3 257.75 -10.5 193.37 -1.2
III 557 0.2 65 -2.6 36.0 -2.4 297.59 0.2 178.34 -4.2
IV 564 -0.7 65 0.7 36.9 -0.0 300.29 -0.2 166.86 -7.1
Year 2234 0.4 67 -0.8 149.9 -0.3 281.51 -5.5 184.99 -3.3
2017
I d 549 1.1 69 -1.4 37.9 -0.3 274-279 2.3 169-177 -14.1
II e 587 3.1 67 -2.1 39.4 0.9 276-282 8.2 173-182 -8.2
III 557 0.0 64 -1.3 35.5 -1.3 283-289 -3.9 170-180 -1.9
IV 574 1.8 65 -0.4 37.4 1.3 276-284 -6.8 162-173 0.4
Year 2267 1.5 66 -1.3 150.2 0.2 277-283 -0.4 169-178 -6.7
2018
I 564 2.8 70 0.9 39.3 3.7 279-287 2.4 170-182 1.7
II 585 -0.5 68 0.8 39.5 0.3 279-288 1.6 173-185 0.8
III 564 1.3 64 0.8 36.3 2.1 281-291 0.0 170-184 1.1
IV 591 3.1 66 0.6 38.8 3.7 278-289 1.3 164-179 2.4
Year 2304 1.6 67 0.8 153.8 2.4 279-289 1.3 169-183 1.4
a/ Totals may not add due to rounding. d/ Estimated quarter
b/ Slaughter lamb prices are formula purchases on a dressed weight basis. e/ Forecasted quarters
c/ Feeder Lamb Prices are a three market (CO, SD, & TX) average; live weight basis.
Sources: Livestock Slaughter - USDA Publications: Lamb Prices - USDA Livestock Market News: Forecasts - LMIC Projections
Thank You!