Corn Situation and Outlook

Corn Situation and Outlook

Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2006

Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2006

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ion

bu

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2006

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ion

bu

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10

$2.30

$2.50

$2.70

$2.90

$3.10

$3.30

$3.50

Ending Stocks Price/Bu

U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2006

010002000300040005000600070008000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Mil

lio

n b

ush

els

Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low

Beginning Stocks(MB) 1971 1971 1971Acres (M. P. A.) 78.3 78.6 78.9Yield 150 151 152Supply(M. Bu) 12620 12725 12835 Use:

Feed 6050Ethanol 2150 Food, Seed 1390 Exports 2200

Ending Stocks 750 935 1120Projected Price $3.20 $3.00 $2.80

Wheat Situation and Outlook


Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mil

lio

n B

u

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00


U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mil

lio

n B

u

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00


U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2006

010002000300040005000600070008000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Mil

lio

n b

ush

els

Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks

Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------


Beginning Stocks(MB) 571 571 571Acres (M. A. Planted) 57.2 57.3 57.4Yield 38.6 38.7 38.8Supply(M. Bu) 2479 2488 2495 Use:

Food, Seed 1000 Feed, Resid 145 Exports 925


Soybean Situation and Outlook


Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mil

lio

n B

u

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00


U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mil

lio

n B

u

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

$5.50

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00


U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks vs. Price, 1990-2006

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

7.50

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Ending Stocks (MB)

Pri

ce

/Bu

. ‘06

‘05

‘01‘00 ‘99

‘98

‘97

‘96

‘95

‘94

‘93

‘92‘91

‘90‘04

‘03

‘02

U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2006

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Mil

lio

n B

ush

els


U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2006

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Mil

lio

n M

etri

c T

on

s


U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2006

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Mill

ion

Me

tric

To

ns


Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------

Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 449 449 449Acres (M. P. A.) 75.2 75.6 76.0Yield 42.5 43.0 43.5Supply(M. Bu) 3602 3657 3711 Use:

Crushing 1780 Exports 1145 Seed, Feed 166


Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook


Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2006

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mil

lio

n B

u

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50


U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2006

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mil

lio

n B

u

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

$2.50

$2.75

$3.00


Supply/Demand Projections:2005/2006Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------


Beginning Stocks(MB) 65.0 65.0 65.0

Acres (M. P. A.) 6.2 6.3 6.4

Supply(M. Bu) 345 354 359

Use:

Food & Seed 55

Exports 165

Feed 95

Ending Stocks 27 39 51

Projected Price $3.20 $3.00 $2.80

Cotton Situation and Outlook


Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2006

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Th

ou

sa

nd

Ba

les

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)

U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2006

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Th

ou

sa

nd

Ba

les

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)

U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2006

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year

Th

ou

san

d B

ales


Supply/Demand Projections:2006/2007 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------


Beginning Stocks(MB) 6.0 6.0 6.0

Acres (M. P. A.) 15.2 15.3 15.4

Yield 783 798 811

Supply(MB) 26.9 27.4 27.9

Use:

Domestic 5.2

Exports 16.2

Ending Stocks 4.6 6.0 7.4

Projected Price/cwt

What Could Change The Outlook?

South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,

World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather

Corn Situation and Outlook

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