Post on 11-Jul-2019
Kangaroo Island Resilience Forum
2014
What will our future look like?
Eyre Peninsula’s experience of planning for adaptation to Climate Change and lessons for Kangaroo Island
Brian Foster
IPCC WG1September 2013
259 authors
over 97% 0f scientists agree
……Physics……Paleoclimate
history……Observation
2C Target Maths
5
2100
4
3
2100
2100
2 RCP2.6
2030
2050 2050
2030
2050
2050
2100
2010
1
2000
RCP2.6 Historical
1950
1890
1980
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
RCP range
1%/yr CO2
1%/yr CO2 range
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
IPCC AR5 WGI, SPM 2013; Chapter 6, Ciais et al. 2013
>66% - probability (upper limit)
RCP2.6 Budget 800 PgC Consumed 531 PgC Left 269 PgC
At Current Emiss. 10 PgC Years left 27 yrs
At Current Growth 3%y-1
Years left <20 yrs
Te
mp
era
ture
an
om
aly
re
lative
to
18
61
-18
80
(°C
)
0
IPCC AR5 WGI, SPM 2013; Chapter 6, Ciais et al. 2013
How do we deal with the reality of a warming planet?
• Social, Economic, Environmental (All areas of human endeavour affected)
• Regional scale
• Whole of landscape
• Mitigation
• Adaptation (Primary Secondary Transformational change)
Stafford Smith, D.M., Horrocks, L., Harvey, A., and Hamilton, C.Rethinking adaptation for a four degree world.
Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Nov 2010
Natural Resource Management and Climate Change
Professor Wayne Meyer “Landscape Futures Eyre Peninsula and SA Murray Darling Basin”
Dr Michael Dunlop “The implications of climate change for Australia's biodiversity conservation and protected areas”
Justine Bell and Mark Baker-Jones “Climate legal risk and sea level rise”
How do we move forward
How does a Region/Board Local Government INDUSTRY /COMMUNITY cope and deal with decisions in this space……………?
• Together not in isolation one step at a time!
• Cross sectoral
• In partnership
We need a Regional focus to understand risk, to determine priorities and to grasp opportunity.
Cecilia Woolford Executive Officer
a large triangle of land in South Australia
between the Nullabor Plain & Spencer Gulf
230,00km2, 1800 km of coastline, 254 islands
low rainfall zone, low soil fertility
no rivers.
The Eyre Peninsula is an Eco tone
where species from eastern and western Australia meet.
The Eyre Peninsula supports a large number of endemic species.
EPICCA
where are we?
• Governance Mechanism (EPICCA)
• Targeted Stakeholder Engagement
• Decision Timelines
• Applied Adaptation Pathways
Mark Siebentritt, Nicole Halsey andMark Stafford Smith
“EPICCA”
Cecilia Woolford Executive Officer
what are we?
Eyre Peninsula Integrated Climate Change Agreement
a regional sector agreement
signed in August 2010 between….
SA Minister for Sustainability & Climate Change
and peak bodies:
Eyre Peninsula NRM Board
Regional Development Australia – Whyalla and Eyre Peninsula
Eyre Peninsula Local Government Association.
“The Government of South Australia and the Eyre Peninsula Region
are taking a collaborative approach to ensure
the region is resilient to the changes
resulting from climate change and
to ensure its ongoing prosperity.”
The daunting diversity of decisions …
Decision timelines
The sense of uncertainty that pervades thinking about adaptation is compounded by the daunting diversity of decisions that could be affected by climate change. However, just as not all uncertainties are equally problematic, nor are all decisions
Mark Stafford Smith
Applied adaptation pathways analysisThe stakeholder engagement process provided a clear direction on priority areas of decision making that need to be considered in identifying adaptation options for the region
Applied adaptation pathways analysis has focussed on:
• Agriculture
• Conservation Management
• Fisheries
• Maintenance of road infrastructure
• Management of coastal development
• Peri-urban expansion
• Port and wharf facilities
• Water resources management
And a Regional scale, cross sectoral adaptation pathway
This Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan is the next step in preparing for climate change on the Eyre Peninsula. It is the product of a regional community engaged in practical thinking about how we respond to the future of climate change considering how individual sector actions interact to deliver regional priorities.
“We must be aware of change. Of opportunities that change may present and be prepared to respond to those drivers of change in a timely and practical way…”
Brian Foster
Conservation
Issue
Conservation management
Key decision
How can ecological communities that are currently threatened be protected
as species distributions change in response to a warmer and drier climate?
No changes
Improved monitoring and forecasting of
charging ecosystems and habitats
Adopt a resilience based NRM planning
process
Identify future refuge and protected areas
Current best practice and strategic planning
Management arrangements for large scale
adaptation and refuge protection
Assisted migration of key species
Gene banking (native species)
Retreat and protect strategies
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall
(15% avg), increased
periods of drought,
increased frequency of
hot weather
Western King Prawn Fisheries
Issue
Fisheries management – Western king prawn fishery
Key decision
How will the prawn fishery respond to changing distribution and abundance of
prawns as a result of increases in Spencer Gulf temperatures and acidity?
No changes
Improve stock assessment model to
consider climate factors
Biosecurity and species health
management strategy and system
Policy and legislative review (including
resource sharing arrangements)
Shipping management strategy for
Spencer Gulf
Current best practice and improved planning
Integrated Ocean Management Strategy
Utilise better weather forecasts to improve
fishing efficiency
Improved marketing and sales of by-catch
Change in distribution of fishing effort
Change base location of fleet Retreat and transform strategies
0 10 50 years
Now Future - increased ocean
temperatures, increased acidification
(drop in pH by up to 0.3)
WATER
•
Issue
Water
Key decision
How does the region maintain or increase the supply of potable water in major
towns given possible reduction in supply, either as a consequence of climate
change induced rainfall decline or reduced availability from the River Murray?
No changes
Household demand management/ rainwater tanks Current best
practice
Stormwater harvesting from
industrial structures
Additional ground water resources
New trunk main for Whyalla to Cowell
Desalination plant - Industrial water Major water supply infrastructure
Augmentation of stage 2
Iron Knob to Kimba pipeline
Desalination plant
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall (15%
avg), reduced runoff, increased
evaporation (6% increase)
Management CoastalDevelopment
Issue
Management of coastal development
Key decision
How can communities manage existing and new developments in low lying
areas close to the coast?
No changes
Coastal inundation mapping
Develop appropriate planning policy * Current best practice and development plan policy
Education programs in emergency
flood management
Raise height of land in residential
development further above sea level
Soft structural options e.g. dunes
Hard structural options e.g. sea walls, storm barriers
Protection strategies through structural and physical changes
Upgrade drainage
Relocation of existing infrastructure and housing Retreat
0 10 50 years
* includes revising mandatory planning
provisions in development plans,
reviewing the building code and strictly
regulating hazard zones
Now Future - sea level rises by at least
50 cm by 2070, increased
frequency of storm events
No changes
Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances
Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and
runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to
2'C) and number of heatwaves (near
doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)
Issue
Regional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?
No changes
Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances
Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and
runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to
2'C) and number of heatwaves (near
doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)
IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?
No changes
Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances
Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and
runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to
2'C) and number of heatwaves (near
doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)
IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?
No changes
Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances
Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and
runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to
2'C) and number of heatwaves (near
doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)
IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?
No changes
Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances
Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and
runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to
2'C) and number of heatwaves (near
doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)
IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?
No changes
Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances
Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)
0 10 50 years
Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and
runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to
2'C) and number of heatwaves (near
doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)
Protect or transform
Prepare through incremental change
Retreat or transform
IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?
Implementing the plan
Action : Future adaptation planning should be guided by a principled approach that seeks to build economic resilience and focuses on preparing for future climate change rather than repairing damage after impacts occurs.
Our principles are:• Build economic resilience
• Prepare not repair
• Joint responsibility
• Identify long lifetime decisions
• Seek out and avoid cross sectoral maladaptation
• ACTION
Two main cross sectoral priorities for action NOW.
Integrated management strategy for Spencer Gulf
Regional Transport Infrastructure Plan