Kangaroo Island Resilience Forum

2014

What will our future look like?

Eyre Peninsula’s experience of planning for adaptation to Climate Change and lessons for Kangaroo Island

Brian Foster

IPCC WG1September 2013

259 authors

over 97% 0f scientists agree

……Physics……Paleoclimate

history……Observation

IPCC WG2March 2014308 authors

Impacts Vulnerability Adaptation

IPCC WG3April 2014

235 Authors

MITIGATION

2C Target Maths

5

2100

4

3

2100

2100

2 RCP2.6

2030

2050 2050

2030

2050

2050

2100

2010

1

2000

RCP2.6 Historical

1950

1890

1980

RCP4.5

RCP6.0

RCP8.5

RCP range

1%/yr CO2

1%/yr CO2 range

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)

IPCC AR5 WGI, SPM 2013; Chapter 6, Ciais et al. 2013

>66% - probability (upper limit)

RCP2.6 Budget 800 PgC Consumed 531 PgC Left 269 PgC

At Current Emiss. 10 PgC Years left 27 yrs

At Current Growth 3%y-1

Years left <20 yrs

Te

mp

era

ture

an

om

aly

re

lative

to

18

61

-18

80

(°C

)

0

IPCC AR5 WGI, SPM 2013; Chapter 6, Ciais et al. 2013

How do we deal with the reality of a warming planet?

• Social, Economic, Environmental (All areas of human endeavour affected)

• Regional scale

• Whole of landscape

• Mitigation

• Adaptation (Primary Secondary Transformational change)

Natural Resource Management and Climate Change Eyre Peninsula

Warmer…Drier… Higher…

Stafford Smith, D.M., Horrocks, L., Harvey, A., and Hamilton, C.Rethinking adaptation for a four degree world.

Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Nov 2010

Natural Resource Management and Climate Change

Professor Wayne Meyer “Landscape Futures Eyre Peninsula and SA Murray Darling Basin”

Dr Michael Dunlop “The implications of climate change for Australia's biodiversity conservation and protected areas”

Justine Bell and Mark Baker-Jones “Climate legal risk and sea level rise”

How do we move forward

How does a Region/Board Local Government INDUSTRY /COMMUNITY cope and deal with decisions in this space……………?

• Together not in isolation one step at a time!

• Cross sectoral

• In partnership

We need a Regional focus to understand risk, to determine priorities and to grasp opportunity.

Cecilia Woolford Executive Officer

a large triangle of land in South Australia

between the Nullabor Plain & Spencer Gulf

230,00km2, 1800 km of coastline, 254 islands

low rainfall zone, low soil fertility

no rivers.

The Eyre Peninsula is an Eco tone

where species from eastern and western Australia meet.

The Eyre Peninsula supports a large number of endemic species.

EPICCA

where are we?

• Governance Mechanism (EPICCA)

• Targeted Stakeholder Engagement

• Decision Timelines

• Applied Adaptation Pathways

Mark Siebentritt, Nicole Halsey andMark Stafford Smith

“EPICCA”

Cecilia Woolford Executive Officer

what are we?

Eyre Peninsula Integrated Climate Change Agreement

a regional sector agreement

signed in August 2010 between….

SA Minister for Sustainability & Climate Change

and peak bodies:

Eyre Peninsula NRM Board

Regional Development Australia – Whyalla and Eyre Peninsula

Eyre Peninsula Local Government Association.

“The Government of South Australia and the Eyre Peninsula Region

are taking a collaborative approach to ensure

the region is resilient to the changes

resulting from climate change and

to ensure its ongoing prosperity.”

Targeted Engagement

The daunting diversity of decisions …

Decision timelines

The sense of uncertainty that pervades thinking about adaptation is compounded by the daunting diversity of decisions that could be affected by climate change. However, just as not all uncertainties are equally problematic, nor are all decisions

Mark Stafford Smith

Applied adaptation pathways analysisThe stakeholder engagement process provided a clear direction on priority areas of decision making that need to be considered in identifying adaptation options for the region

Applied adaptation pathways analysis has focussed on:

• Agriculture

• Conservation Management

• Fisheries

• Maintenance of road infrastructure

• Management of coastal development

• Peri-urban expansion

• Port and wharf facilities

• Water resources management

And a Regional scale, cross sectoral adaptation pathway

This Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plan is the next step in preparing for climate change on the Eyre Peninsula. It is the product of a regional community engaged in practical thinking about how we respond to the future of climate change considering how individual sector actions interact to deliver regional priorities.

“We must be aware of change. Of opportunities that change may present and be prepared to respond to those drivers of change in a timely and practical way…”

Brian Foster

Conservation

Issue

Conservation management

Key decision

How can ecological communities that are currently threatened be protected

as species distributions change in response to a warmer and drier climate?

No changes

Improved monitoring and forecasting of

charging ecosystems and habitats

Adopt a resilience based NRM planning

process

Identify future refuge and protected areas

Current best practice and strategic planning

Management arrangements for large scale

adaptation and refuge protection

Assisted migration of key species

Gene banking (native species)

Retreat and protect strategies

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall

(15% avg), increased

periods of drought,

increased frequency of

hot weather

Agriculture

Western King Prawn Fisheries

Issue

Fisheries management – Western king prawn fishery

Key decision

How will the prawn fishery respond to changing distribution and abundance of

prawns as a result of increases in Spencer Gulf temperatures and acidity?

No changes

Improve stock assessment model to

consider climate factors

Biosecurity and species health

management strategy and system

Policy and legislative review (including

resource sharing arrangements)

Shipping management strategy for

Spencer Gulf

Current best practice and improved planning

Integrated Ocean Management Strategy

Utilise better weather forecasts to improve

fishing efficiency

Improved marketing and sales of by-catch

Change in distribution of fishing effort

Change base location of fleet Retreat and transform strategies

0 10 50 years

Now Future - increased ocean

temperatures, increased acidification

(drop in pH by up to 0.3)

WATER

•

Issue

Water

Key decision

How does the region maintain or increase the supply of potable water in major

towns given possible reduction in supply, either as a consequence of climate

change induced rainfall decline or reduced availability from the River Murray?

No changes

Household demand management/ rainwater tanks Current best

practice

Stormwater harvesting from

industrial structures

Additional ground water resources

New trunk main for Whyalla to Cowell

Desalination plant - Industrial water Major water supply infrastructure

Augmentation of stage 2

Iron Knob to Kimba pipeline

Desalination plant

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall (15%

avg), reduced runoff, increased

evaporation (6% increase)

Management CoastalDevelopment

Issue

Management of coastal development

Key decision

How can communities manage existing and new developments in low lying

areas close to the coast?

No changes

Coastal inundation mapping

Develop appropriate planning policy * Current best practice and development plan policy

Education programs in emergency

flood management

Raise height of land in residential

development further above sea level

Soft structural options e.g. dunes

Hard structural options e.g. sea walls, storm barriers

Protection strategies through structural and physical changes

Upgrade drainage

Relocation of existing infrastructure and housing Retreat

0 10 50 years

* includes revising mandatory planning

provisions in development plans,

reviewing the building code and strictly

regulating hazard zones

Now Future - sea level rises by at least

50 cm by 2070, increased

frequency of storm events

No changes

Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances

Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and

runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to

2'C) and number of heatwaves (near

doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)

Issue

Regional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?

No changes

Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances

Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and

runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to

2'C) and number of heatwaves (near

doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)

IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?

No changes

Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances

Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and

runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to

2'C) and number of heatwaves (near

doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)

IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?

No changes

Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances

Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and

runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to

2'C) and number of heatwaves (near

doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)

IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?

No changes

Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances

Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and

runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to

2'C) and number of heatwaves (near

doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)

IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?

No changes

Current best practice Strategic planning, development plan Policy and design allowances

Improved seasonal weather forecasting Major water supply infrastructure Establish new port and wharf facilities Genetically modified crops 4 Structural options or modifications Change in distribution of fishing effort Assisted migration of conservation species Relocation (houses, fishing fleet, assisted migration of conservation species)

0 10 50 years

Now Future - reduced rainfall (15% avg) and

runoff, increased temperature (1.5 to

2'C) and number of heatwaves (near

doubling), rising sea level (by 0.5 m)

Protect or transform

Prepare through incremental change

Retreat or transform

IssueRegional scale, cross sectoral adaptation planningKey decisionHow do key sectors on the Eyre Peninsula respond to warmer and drier conditions on the land, higher sea levels near the coast and warmer and more acidic gulf and ocean waters?

Implementing the plan

Action : Future adaptation planning should be guided by a principled approach that seeks to build economic resilience and focuses on preparing for future climate change rather than repairing damage after impacts occurs.

Our principles are:• Build economic resilience

• Prepare not repair

• Joint responsibility

• Identify long lifetime decisions

• Seek out and avoid cross sectoral maladaptation

• ACTION

Two main cross sectoral priorities for action NOW.

Integrated management strategy for Spencer Gulf

Regional Transport Infrastructure Plan

Read our plantalk to us about our

approachLet’s share what we learnt along the way

Thank you