John Pomeroy, John Pomeroy, (Saskatchewan),(Saskatchewan),Sean Carey Sean Carey (Carleton),(Carleton),

Richard Essery Richard Essery (Wales),(Wales),Raoul Granger Raoul Granger (NWRI/EC),(NWRI/EC),Masaki Hayashi Masaki Hayashi (Calgary),(Calgary),

Rick Janowicz Rick Janowicz (Yukon Environment),(Yukon Environment),Phil Marsh Phil Marsh (Saskatchewan/EC),(Saskatchewan/EC),

Scott Munro Scott Munro (Toronto),(Toronto),Alain Pietroniro Alain Pietroniro (Saskatchewan/EC),(Saskatchewan/EC),

William Quinton William Quinton ((WilfridWilfrid Laurier),Laurier),Ken Snelgrove Ken Snelgrove (Newfoundland),(Newfoundland),

Ric Soulis Ric Soulis (Waterloo),(Waterloo),Chris Spence Chris Spence (Saskatchewan/EC), (Saskatchewan/EC),

Diana Verseghy Diana Verseghy (Waterloo/EC)(Waterloo/EC)

and 16 collaborators fromand 16 collaborators from

Environment Canada, Environment Canada, Alberta Environment, Alberta Environment,

Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Natural Resources Canada,

UnivUniv Guelph, Univ Idaho, Guelph, Univ Idaho, UnivUniv Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan, UnivUniv Western Ontario, Western Ontario,

UnivUniv Waterloo, Waterloo, USDAUSDA--ARSARS

A Network of the

BackgroundBackground• Declining annual or earlier peak discharge in

many cold regions streams and rivers (Rockies and Northern Canada)

• Increasing consumptive use of Rocky Mountain water in Prairie Provinces

• Uncertainty in engineering design for small to medium size ‘ungauged’ basins undergoing resource development and restoration (oil & gas, diamond mines, other mines)

• Opportunity to couple atmospheric-hydrological models with cold regions components for forecasting weather generation, streamflow to Arctic Ocean, flooding, improved climatology

Naturalized FlowNaturalized Flow of South Saskatchewan of South Saskatchewan River entering Lake Diefenbaker River entering Lake Diefenbaker

Decline of ~1.5 billion m3 over ~90 years (~ -15%) in natural flowDecline of ~1.1 billion m3 over ~30 years (~ -15%) in actual flowUpstream consumption of naturalized flows up to 7%-42% in last 15 years

02,000,000,0004,000,000,0006,000,000,0008,000,000,000

10,000,000,00012,000,000,00014,000,000,00016,000,000,00018,000,000,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ann

ual F

low

m3

Natural Actual

Date of Spring FreshetDate of Spring FreshetHay River at Hay RiverDate of Annual Freshet Peak

90

120

150

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Julia

n D

ay

May

April

Mackenzie River at Fort SimpsonDate of Annual Peak Discharge

120

150

180

210

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Julia

n D

ay

May

June

July

Courtesy Derek Faria, INAC

Cold Regions Hydrology on Complex TerrainCold Regions Hydrology on Complex Terrain

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mean Energy (W/m2)

ValleyBottom

South Face North Face

Melt + InternalNet RadiationGround HeatSensible HeatLatent Heat

20o slopesSouth Face

North FaceValley Bottom

Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological PredictionPrediction::CurrentCurrent ParadigmParadigm -- uncoupleduncoupled

Extracted atmosphericmodel forcing

Atmosphericmodel (3D)with its own

surface scheme (1D)

Hydrological model (lumped or 2D)with its own land-surface scheme (LSS)

IP3 TargetsIP3 Targets• Understanding key climate system processes

relating to the hydrometeorology of cold regions,• Parameterizing the land surface hydro-

meteorological processes that control the coupled atmospheric-hydrological system in cold regions;

• Validating and improving models for weather, water and climate systems leading to better prediction and simulation of related atmospheric impacts on water resources and surface climates in cold regions.

IP3 IP3 –– Goals and Theme StructureGoals and Theme Structure

• Theme 1 Processes: Advance our understanding of cold regions hydrometeorological processes

• Theme 2 Parameterisation Develop mathematical parameterisation of cold regions processes for small to medium scales

• Theme 3 Prediction Evaluate and demonstrate improved hydrological and atmospheric prediction at regional and smaller scales in the cold regions of Canada

• Ultimately – contribute to multiscale assessment of coupled climate system, weather and water resources in cold regions

IP3 MethodologyIP3 Methodology• Multiple-scale near-surface observations of snow,

water body, frozen soil and permafrost mass and energy fluxes at IP3 research basins.

• Development of improved process algorithms for small to medium scales, evaluated at IP3 research basins

• Incorporation of improved process parameterisations into coupled land surface – hydrology models

• Simulation of water resources and the near-surface atmospheric fluxes at multiple scales in cold regions

• Evaluation of progress in coupled model predictions of discharge, water storage, water balance, snow cover, soil moisture, soil frost, evaporation at IP3 research basins and in larger domains.

Processes and Parameterisation ofProcesses and Parameterisation of• Cold Regions Terrestrial System

– Drainage network connectivity– Frozen soil infiltration and drainage

• Cold Regions Open Water – Ice growth and decay, snow on lake ice– Advection of energy to small lakes

• Snow and Ice Processes– Snow Redistribution– Spatial variability of snowmelt– Improved turbulent transfer in complex terrain– Glacier-scale katabatic cooling effects– Upscaling turbulent transfer relationships

IP3 Research Basins IP3 Research Basins –– multiscale observations multiscale observations of cold regions hydrology and meteorologyof cold regions hydrology and meteorology

IP3 IP3 Research BasinsResearch Basins

Trail Valley Creek, arctic tundra

Havikpak Creek, taiga woodland

Baker Creek, Subarctic shield lakes

Wolf Creek, subarctic tundra cordillera

Scotty Creek, permafrost wetlands

Lake O’Hara, wet alpine

Marmot Creek, Dry subalpine

Peyto Creek, glacierized alpine

ScalingScalingResolution 1 m 100 m 100 m - 2 km 2 - 10 km 10 km - 10 km

Landscape type Pattern/tileTile/HRU Tile/HRU Grid/small basin Multi-grid/medium basin Multi-gridPoint Hillslope Sub-basin Basin Mesoscale Regional;

Prediction TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice

Parametrization TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice

Process TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice

MESH MESH MESH MESHMODELS CHRM CHRM CHRM CHRM

CEOP Hydrology CEOP HydrologyQuinton CFCAS Study---------------> <----------------------------------MAGS

IP3 Scaling Methodology

Previous LSS Scaling Methodology

Integrating the TOP DOWN and BOTTOM UP approaches

PredictionPrediction• Cold

Regions Hydrology Model at basin scale

• Land surface hydrology model evaluation and development

• Evaluation of GEM-LAM and CRCM

Mackenzie Basin

Peace-Athabasca Sub Basin (Mackenzie)

Saskatchewan BasinColumbia River

Basin

1

2

3

4

5

Wolf Creek(Subarctic Tundra

Cordillrea)

Scotty Creek(Permafrost Wetlands)

Baker Creek(Subarctic Shield

Lakes)

Trail Valley Creek (Arctic Tundra)

Havikpak Creek(Taiga Woodland)

Lake O'Hara(Wet Alpine)

Marmot Creek(Subalpine Forest)

RCM Domain

GEM Domain North

GEM Domain South1

24

Peyto Creek(Glaciated Alpine)

5

3

ModModéélisation Environnementale Communautaire,lisation Environnementale Communautaire,MECMEC

Atmosphericmodel (3D)

Surface

Hydrological

“On-line”mode

“Off-line”mode

Atmospheric

scheme (1D)

Hydrologicalmodel (2D)

“On-line”mode

“Off-line”modeExtracted atmospheric

model forcings

Hydrological model (lumped or 2D)with its own LSS

Atmosphericmodel (3D)with its own

surface scheme (1D)

Anticipated Results: ProcessesAnticipated Results: Processes

• New soil physics parameters for organic and frozen soils

• Control of lateral flow established for various cold regions environments

• Influence of glaciers on regional climate fields• Improved turbulent transfer relationships over

snow and glacier ice in complex terrain• Improved short and longwave relationships for

vegetation canopies on snow-covered slopes

Anticipated Results: ParameterisationAnticipated Results: Parameterisation

• Runoff and streamflow – variable contributing area based on energy and moisture state, ‘fill and spill’ runoff

• Small lakes – advection, evaporation and lake ice effects

• Mass change, phase change, radiation and turbulent fluxes from snow – upscaled radiation and turbulent fluxes, snow covered area depletion, blowing snow redistribution

Anticipated Results: PredictionAnticipated Results: Prediction• MESH for cold regions – developed and tested• CRHM for small northern and mountain basins• Improved prediction in ungauged basins –

streamflow prediction with less calibration of model parameters from gauged flows

• Improved weather prediction – quantify importance of land-atmosphere feedback in cold regions

• Improved climate prediction – benefits to improved land surface scheme physics and parameterisation

IP3 Organisational StructureIP3 Organisational Structure

Board of Directors

Scientific Committee

Theme 1Processes

Theme 2Parameterisation

Theme 3Prediction

Collaborative Agencies & User Sector

International Advisor

International Science

Initiatives: GEWEX,

IPY, CLIC, PUB

IP3 Scientific CommitteeIP3 Scientific Committee

• John Pomeroy, Chair• Sean Carey, Theme 1, Processes• Bill Quinton, Theme 2, Parameterisation• Al Pietroniro, Theme 3, Prediction• Diana Verseghy, member at large• Network Manager, Secretary

IP3 Board of DirectorsIP3 Board of Directors

• Hok Woo, Chair, McMaster Univ.• Tim Aston, CFCAS• Dan Moore, UBC• John Pomeroy, PI• Bob Reid, INAC, Yellowknife• Vincent Fortin, EC, Montreal• Network Manager, Secretary

IP3 SecretariatIP3 Secretariat

• Network and Information Manager– Network Management– Finances– Web– Data

• GEM Modeller – NWP modeling for domains around study basins, coupled modelling

• CRHM Modeller – develop CRHM platform for general application in parameterisation studies

IP3 International Science LinkagesIP3 International Science Linkages

GEWEX

PUB

IPY

CliC

IP3

Water Resources

Climate High Latitudes and Altitudes

Societal Relevance

Scientific Advance

Observational Advance

IP3 OutputsIP3 Outputs• Improved understanding of cold regions hydrology at

scales that were poorly understood• Improved environmental predictive capability in cold

regions at requested spatial scales by inclusion of improved processes, snow and ice, spatial patterns, frozen ground, drainage => CRHM, MESH

• Improved hydrological and atmospheric modelperformance at multiple scales, e.g. CRCM, GEM, MEC, ultimately GCM

• Unique observational dataset archive• Enhanced Canadian capacity in cold regions hydrology

and meteorology in response to greater water resource demands.