Post on 27-Jun-2018
JOBS IN MAINE: CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK
Labor Market Information and Online Resources
Maine Career Development Association
Annual Conference June 6, 2014
Ruth Pease
Economic Research Analyst
Center for Workforce
Research & Information
Maine Dept. of Labor
www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/
ruth.e.pease@maine.gov
207-621-5189
Labor Market Information and
Resources
•Recent trends and current conditions
•Population and labor force
•Outlook 2010 to 2020
(preview 2012 to 2022)
Not In LABOR FORCE
377,000 35%
EMPLOYED 662,000 92.7%
UNEMPLOYED Not Employed
and Looking for Work
47,000 6.6%
LABOR FORCE 709,000
65%
Maine Labor Force Statistics, 2013
LABOR FORCE = Employed + Unemployed.
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE = 65%
NOT in LABOR FORCE = Not working nor available nor seeking work
UNEMPLOYED = not working but available and looking for work
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE = percent of LABOR FORCE that is unemployed = 6.6%
Civilian noninstitutional
population
Since stabilizing in 2010, Maine has regained about one-half
of the number of jobs lost in the downturn. The
unemployment rate continues to trend down.
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
585,000
595,000
605,000
615,000
625,000
Ja
n-0
8
Apr-
08
Ju
l-0
8
Oct-
08
Ja
n-0
9
Apr-
09
Ju
l-0
9
Oct-
09
Ja
n-1
0
Apr-
10
Ju
l-1
0
Oct-
10
Ja
n-1
1
Apr-
11
Ju
l-1
1
Oct-
11
Ja
n-1
2
Apr-
12
Ju
l-1
2
Oct-
12
Ja
n-1
3
Apr-
13
Ju
l-1
3
Oct-
13
Ja
n-1
4
Apr-
14
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(s
ea
so
na
lly a
dju
ste
d)
No
nfa
rm P
ayro
ll J
ob
s
(sea
so
na
lly a
dju
ste
d)
Non-Farm
Payroll Jobs
Unemployment Rate
Sectors that shed the most jobs involve making, moving or
selling goods, as well as government; sectors adding jobs are
primarily human-capital intensive… (Net change in jobs from 2008 to 2013)
-8,300
-4,300 -4,000 -3,900 -2,900
-1,300 -1,200 -800 -100
700 1,900 2,500 2,800 3,400
Ma
nu
factu
ring
Reta
il T
rade
Constr
uction
Go
ve
rnm
en
t
Info
rma
tio
n
Wh
ole
sale
Tra
de
Tra
nspo
rtation
&U
tilii
tes
Fin
an
cia
l A
ctivitie
s
Na
tura
l R
esou
rce
s
Oth
er
Serv
ices
Ed
ucation
al S
erv
ices
Leis
ure
& H
osp
ita
lity
He
alth C
are
& S
ocia
lA
ssis
tance
Pro
fessio
na
l &
Bu
sin
ess S
vcs
...This has caused major displacement in middle-skill blue-
collar and administrative support occupations, which have
been the primary path to a middle-class lifestyle for those
without post-secondary education. (Change in jobs 2008 to 2012)
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
Jobs that do not require post-secondary education suffered
highest losses. Net growth occurred in occupations that
require education beyond high school. Many displaced
workers do not qualify for openings in growing fields of work.
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Less than highschool
HS diploma orequivalent
Some college ornon-degree
award
Associate'sdegree or higher
Net change in jobs by usual
educational requirement for
entry. 2008 to 2012
Another indication of shifting job requirements, work attributes
valued in growing middle-income occupations are very
different from those in declining occupations.
Examples of knowledge, skill and ability requirements:
Growing Occupations
Critical thinking, problem
solving, decision
making, mathematics,
reading comprehension,
deductive reasoning,
processing information,
analyzing data
Declining Occupations
Machinery operation,
equipment inspection,
tool selection, physical
strength, following
instructions, manual
dexterity, clerical
functions
In summary -
The recession of 2008 accelerated a structural shift in
jobs away from middle-skill occupations that typically
involved routine tasks that are procedural and repetitive.
Rising performance requirements of jobs present a
challenge…
…to displaced workers whose skills and
experience may no longer be in demand,
…and to job seekers lacking relevant
education, training or experience.
We can no longer count on a natural increase in population
so we will need to increase levels of net in-migration to
maintain a stable population and workforce.
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
Nat
ura
l Ch
ange
Bir
ths
and
Dea
ths
Natural Change (right scale)
Births (left scale)
Deaths (left scale)
As we move through the lifecycle, our attachment to the labor
force is highest between age 25 and 54 before declining at an
accelerating rate with age.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-69 70-74 75+
La
bo
r F
orc
e P
art
icip
atio
n R
ate
s
2012
2022 projected
Maine has a larger share of Baby Boomers and a smaller
share of young people to enter the workforce than the U.S. as
a whole.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
Perc
ent
of Tota
l P
opula
tion in 2
012
Age
U.S. Maine
During this decade a very large share of the population is
aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment. (Population by year of age if there were no migration in or out of Maine)
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75Age
2010 2017 2022
The population in their peak years of labor force participation
will decline between 2012 and 2022.
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Pro
jecte
d P
op
ula
tio
n C
ha
ng
e
20
12-2
02
2
La
bo
r F
orc
e P
art
icip
atio
n R
ate
s
Projected Population Change (right scale)
Labor Force Participation Rate 2012 (left scale)
Labor Force Participation Rate 2022 (left scale)
Considerations affecting outlook
In the short term, a
strengthening economy
that puts unemployed
back to work should
produce job gains in the
next few years.
In the longer term, job
growth will be driven by
demographic trends in
the population and
migration to and from
the state. Demographic
trends affect:
• Labor supply
• Demand for goods and
services
The share of jobs in goods-producing industries (natural
resources, construction and manufacturing) has fallen from
nearly half of jobs in 1950 to 14 percent of jobs in 2012. That
trend is expected to continue.
44% 56%
1950
Goods-Producing
Service-Providing
18%
82%
2002
14%
86%
2012
13%
87%
2022, projected
Maine’s biggest industries
Distribution by jobs in 2013
Industry Outlook – what firms do:
Health Care & Social
Assistance 17%
Government 17%
Retail Trade 14% Leisure &
Hospitality 10%
Professional & Business Svcs
10%
Manufacturing 8%
All Other Industries
24%
Through 2022, many sectors will see job growth, but only four
are expected to have significantly more jobs than the pre-
recession peak.
-8,6
00
-5,3
00
-4,8
00
-3,4
00
-2,7
00
-2,2
00
-1,7
00
-1,7
00
-200
200
1,3
00
1,4
00
3,8
00
4,2
00
-4,4
28
52
4
1,2
10
-772
-2,9
39
11
4
33
9
244
-19
192
2,4
01
498
13
,14
9
3,4
91
Man
ufa
ctu
ring
Co
nstr
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n
Reta
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Info
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Govern
me
nt
Tra
nsport
. &
Utilii
tes
Wh
ole
sa
le T
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Fin
an
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ctivitie
s
Natu
ral R
esourc
es
Oth
er
Se
rvic
es
Leis
ure
& H
ospita
lity
Educational S
erv
ice
s
Hea
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are
& S
oc A
ssis
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Pro
f &
Busin
ess S
vcs
Job Change 2008 to 2012
Outlook 2012 to 2022
Service 22%
Professional and Related
22%
Office and Administrative
Support 16%
Sales and Related 10%
Management, Business and
Financial 10%
Production 6%
Transportation and Material Moving
6%
Construction and Extraction
5% Installation, Maint, and
Repair, 4%
Farm/Fish/ Forestry
0%
Other 20%
Professional & Related:
Computer & Mathematical
Architecture & Engineering
Life, Physical & Soc. Sci.
Community & Social Svcs
Legal
Education & Library
Arts, Design & Sports
Healthcare Practitioners & Technicians
Service Occupations:
Healthcare Support
Protective Services
Food Prep & Service
Building & Maint.
Personal Care & Svcs.
Jobs by
occupational
categories 2013
Occupational Outlook – what workers do:
Growth is concentrated in occupational groups that represent
opposite ends of the skills, education and wage spectrum.
The concentration of job growth in high- and low-wage
occupations will result in a smaller share of jobs in the middle
of the wage spectrum.
15%
29%
22%
12%
21%
24%
27%
12%
5%
31%
<$11 $11 to $14.99 $15 to $19.99 $20 to $24.99 $25+
Share
of Tota
l Jobs b
y 2
011 A
vera
ge
Wage
Jobs by Their 2011 Average Hourly Wage
Share of 2010 Jobs
Share of Expected Job Growth to 2020
The distribution of net growth by education level shows a shift
toward occupations requiring education beyond high school.
However, most jobs will still be in occupations with low
education requirements.
70%
13% 17%
57%
20% 23%
36%
27%
36%
HS diploma or less Postsecondary, less thanBA
BA+
Sh
are
of
To
tal
Usual Education Requirement of Occupations
Share of 2010 Jobs
Share of Expected Job Growth ALLJOBSShare of Expected Job Growth HIGH-WAGE IN-DEMAND Jobs
20
10
JO
BS
NE
T N
EW
JO
BS
HW
-ID
JO
BS
“High Growth” versus “In-Demand”
Job openings stem from two sources: replacement of incumbent
workers and job creation. From 2010 to 2020, nearly 4 out of five
openings will be due to replacement needs.
Growth 4,360
Replacement 15,150
Replacement openings create job opportunities even in occupations
expected to experience net job losses. “In-demand” status is based
on average annual openings, not net growth.
40 + 740
420
100 + 590
150 + 910
380
380
230 + 810
1,270
1,370
2,120
1,310
31 + 140
2,070
3,510
2,940
Production
Office and AdministrativeSupport
Installation, Maintenance,and Repair
Transportation andMaterial Moving
Management, Businessand Financial
Farming, Fishing, andForestry
Sales and Related
Construction andExtraction
Service
Professional and Related
Occupations ranked by growth rate, high to low.
Growth
Replacement
CWRI homepage
http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/
CWRI Resources for Job Seekers http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/jobseekers.htm
• Average Wage Lookup • Quick reference providing average wage and link to O*Net
• Occupations by Wages • Look for regional concentrations and wage differentials
• High Wage, In-Demand Jobs
• Links to information on related occupations (O*NET Online)
• Growing/Declining Occupations • Research occupations by openings, net growth or net loss
• Employer Locator • Research Maine employers by occupation, industry, or region
http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html
• Occupation by Industry tab • Find out which industries employ a selected occupation.