Jobs in MAINE: conditions & outlook
description
Transcript of Jobs in MAINE: conditions & outlook
JOBS IN MAINE:CONDITIONS & OUTLOOK
Labor Market Information and Online Resources Career Development Facilitator Training
March 7, 2014
Ruth PeaseEconomic Research Analyst
Center for Workforce Research & Information
Maine Dept. of Laborwww.maine.gov/labor/cwri/[email protected]
207-621-5189
Labor Market Information and Resources
•Recent trends and current conditions
•Population and labor force
•Outlook 2010 to 2020
Types of workforce data:
Occupations what
workers do
(SOC)
Industries what firms
do
(NAICS)
Not In LABOR FORCE
377,00035%
EMPLOYED662,00092.7%
UNEMPLOYEDNot Employed and Looking for
Work47,0006.6%
Maine Labor Force Statistics, 2013
LABOR FORCE = Employed + Unemployed. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE = 65% NOT in LABOR FORCE = Not working nor available nor seeking work UNEMPLOYED = not working but available and looking for work UNEMPLOYMENT RATE = percent of LABOR FORCE that is unemployed = 6.6%
Civilian noninstitutional popula-tion16 years +
Recent trendsand current conditions
Since stabilizing in 2010, Maine has regained about one-third of the number of jobs lost in the downturn. The
unemployment rate is trending down.Ja
n-0
8F
eb
-08
Ap
r-0
8Ju
n-0
8A
ug
-08
Oct
-08
De
c-0
8Ja
n-0
9M
ar-
09
Ma
y-0
9Ju
l-0
9S
ep
-09
No
v-0
9D
ec-
09
Fe
b-1
0A
pr-
10
Jun
-10
Au
g-1
0O
ct-1
0N
ov-
10
Jan
-11
Ma
r-1
1M
ay-
11
Jul-
11
Se
p-1
1N
ov-
11
De
c-1
1F
eb
-12
Ap
r-1
2Ju
n-1
2A
ug
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-1
2Ja
n-1
3M
ar-
13
Ma
y-1
3Ju
l-1
3S
ep
-13
Oct
-13
585,000
595,000
605,000
615,000
625,000
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
No
nfa
rm P
ay
roll
Jo
bs
(s
ea
so
na
lly a
dju
ste
d)
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(se
as
on
ally
ad
jus
ted
)
Non-Farm Pay-roll Jobs
Unemployment Rate
Sectors that shed the most jobs involve making, moving or selling goods, as well as government; sectors adding jobs are
primarily human-capital intensive…(Net change in jobs from 2008 to 2013)
Manufa
ctu
ring
Reta
il T
rade
Constr
uction
Govern
ment
Info
rmation
Whole
sale
Tra
de
Tra
nsport
ation &
Utilii
tes
Fin
ancia
l A
ctivitie
s
Natu
ral R
esourc
es
Oth
er
Serv
ices
Educational S
erv
ices
Leis
ure
& H
ospitalit
y
Health C
are
& S
ocia
l A
ssis
tance
Pro
fessio
nal &
Busin
ess S
vcs
-8,300
-4,300 -4,000 -3,900-2,900
-1,300 -1,200 -800-100
7001,900 2,500 2,800 3,400
...This has caused major displacement in middle-skill blue-collar and administrative support occupations, which have been the primary path to a middle-class lifestyle for those
without post-secondary education.(Change in jobs 2008 to 2012)
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
Jobs that do not require post-secondary education suffered highest losses. Growth occurred in occupations that require
education beyond high school. Many job seekers do not qualify for openings in growing fields of work.
Less than high school
HS diploma or equivalent
Some college or non-degree
award
Associate's degree or
higher
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Net change in jobs by usual educational requirement for
entry. 2008 to 2012
Another indication of shifting job requirements, work attributes valued in growing middle-income occupations are very
different from those in declining occupations.
Examples of knowledge, skill and ability requirements:
Growing Occupations
Critical thinking, problem solving, decision making, mathematics, reading comprehension, deductive reasoning, processing information, analyzing data
Declining Occupations
Machinery operation, equipment inspection, tool selection, physical strength, following instructions, manual dexterity, clerical functions
In summary -
The recession of 2008 accelerated a structural shift in jobs away from middle-skill occupations that typically involved routine tasks that are procedural and repetitive.
Rising performance requirements of jobs present a challenge…
…to displaced workers whose skills and experience may no longer be in demand,
…and to job seekers lacking relevant education, training or experience.
Looking ahead - demographic
considerations
We can no longer count on a natural increase in population…
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Natural Change (right scale)Births (left scale)Deaths (left scale)
Birt
hs a
nd D
eath
s
Nat
ural
Cha
nge
…so we will need to increase levels of net in-migration to maintain a stable population and workforce.
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
-4,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
Net MigrationNatural Change
Net
Cha
nge
from
Prio
r Yea
r
As we move through the lifecycle, our attachment to the labor force is highest between age 25 and 54 before declining at an accelerating rate with age.
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-69 70-74 75+0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012
2000 to 2007 Average
La
bo
r F
orc
e P
art
icip
atio
n R
ate
s
During this decade a very large share of the population is aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment.(Population by year of age if there were no migration in or out of Maine)
15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 758,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
2010 2017 2022
Age
Maine has an unusually large share of Baby Boomers and a low share of young people to enter the workforce.
0 5 10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
U.S. Maine
Age
Per
cent
of
Tot
al P
opul
atio
n in
201
2
The population in their peak years of labor force participation is declining rapidly.
16
-19
20
-24
25
-34
35
-44
45
-54
55
-64
65
-69
70
-74
75
+
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
Projected Population Change (right scale)Labor Force Participation Rate 2012 (left scale)Labor Force Participation Rate 2000 to 2007 Average (left scale)
La
bo
r F
orc
e P
art
icip
atio
n R
ate
s
Pro
ject
ed
Po
pu
latio
n C
ha
ng
e 2
01
2-
20
17
Job Outlook to 2020
JOBS
Considerations affecting outlook
In the short term, a strengthening economy that puts unemployed back to work should produce job gains in the next few years.
In the longer term, job growth will be driven by demographic trends in the population and migration to and from the state. Demographic trends affect:
• Labor supply• Demand for goods and
services
Maine’s biggest industries
Distribution by jobs in 2012
Health Care and Social Assis-
tance17%
Government17%
Retail Trade14.0%
Leisure & Hospitality11%
Professional & Business Ser-
vices9.9%
Manufacturing 8.7%
All Other Indus-tries 23%
Industry Outlook – what firms do:
Through 2020, most sectors will see job growth, but only four are expected to have significantly more jobs than the pre-
recession peak.
Man
ufac
turin
g
Cons
truc
tion
Info
rmati
on
Reta
il Tr
ade
Tran
spor
tion
& U
tiliti
es
Fina
ncia
l Acti
vitie
s
Who
lesa
le T
rade
Oth
er S
vcs
Nat
ural
Res
ourc
es
Gove
rnm
ent
Educ
ation
al S
vcs
Leisu
re &
Hos
pita
lity
Prof
essio
nal&
Bus S
vcs
Heal
thca
re&
Soci
al A
ssist
-8,6
00
-6,4
00 -2,5
00
-4,8
00
-2,3
00
-1,5
00
-2,1
00 -200
-200
-300
500
-500
1,90
0
2,40
0
-6,7
00
2,30
0
-200
3,50
0
1,00
0
300
1,50
0
400
400
700
1,40
0
4,60
0
5,90
0
15,7
00
Maine’s occupational groupsDistribution by jobs in 2012
Occupational Outlook – what workers do:
Service22%
Professional and Related19%
Office and Administrative Support
17%
Sales and Related10%
Management, Business and Financial
10%
Production6%
Transportation & Material Moving6%
Construction & Extraction5%
Installation, Maint, & Repair4% Farm/Fish/
Forestry<1%
Professional & Related: Computer & MathematicalArchitecture & EngineeringLife, Physical & Soc. Sci. Community & Social Svcs Legal Education & Library Arts, Design & SportsHealthcare Practitioners & Technicians
Service Occupations: Healthcare SupportProtective ServicesFood Prep & ServiceBuilding & Maint.Personal Care & Svcs.
Growth is concentrated in occupational groups that represent opposite ends of the skills, education and wage spectrum.
The concentration of job growth in high- and low-wage occupations will result in a smaller share of jobs in the middle
of the wage spectrum.
<$11 $11 to $14.99 $15 to $19.99 $20 to $24.99 $25+
15%
29%
22%
12%
21%24%
27%
12%
5%
31%
Share of 2010 Jobs
Share of Expected Job Growth to 2020
Jobs by Their 2011 Average Hourly Wage
Sha
re o
f T
otal
Job
s by
201
1 A
vera
ge
Wag
e
The distribution of job growth by education level shows a shift toward occupations requiring education beyond high school.
HS diploma or less Postsecondary, less than BA
BA+
70%
13%17%
57%
20%23%
36%
27%
36%
Share of 2010 Jobs
Share of Expected Job Growth ALL JOBS
Share of Expected Job Growth HIGH-WAGE IN-DEMAND Jobs
Usual Education Requirement of Occupations
Sh
are
of
To
tal
2010
JO
BS
NE
T N
EW
JO
BS
HW
-ID
JO
BS
Though fastest growth is expected in occupations requiring post-secondary education, most jobs will still be in
occupations with low education requirements.
“High Growth” versus “In-Demand”Job openings stem from two sources: replacement of
incumbent workers and job creation. From 2010 to 2020, nearly 4 out of five openings will be due to replacement needs.
Growth4,360
Replacement15,150
Replacement openings create job opportunities even in occupations expected to experience net job losses. “In-demand”
status is based on average annual openings, not net growth.
Production
Office and Administrative Support
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Transportation and Material Moving
Management, Business and Financial
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Sales and Related
Construction and Extraction
Service
Professional and Related
40 + 740
420
100 + 590
150 + 910
380
380
230 + 810
1,270
1,370
2,120
1,310
31 + 140
2,070
3,510
2,940
Occupations ranked by growth rate, high to low.
GrowthReplacement
CWRI homepage http://maine.gov/labor/cwri/
CWRI Resources for Job Seekershttp://maine.gov/labor/cwri/jobseekers.htm• High Wage, In-Demand Jobs
• Links to information on related occupations (O*NET Online) • Employer Locator
• Research Maine employers by occupation, industry, or region
• Growing/Declining Occupations• Research occupations by openings, net growth or net loss
• Occupations by Wages• Look for regional concentrations and wage differentials
• Average Wage Lookup• Quick reference providing average wage and link to O*Net
http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html• Occupation by Industry tab
• Find out which industries employ a selected occupation.