Post on 28-Dec-2015
IXth EISC: New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities – Rome, October 9, 2007
New aspects of competition: Arianespace prospective
Michel DoubovickVice President, Corporate & Governmental Affairs
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IXth EISC : New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities
Rome, October 9, 2007
Constant factors shaping launch services
• Government concerns remain predominant worldwide• Strategic access to space
• European specificity: low level of utilization
• Stability of the launch service market structurally fragile• Commercial market: 20-25 spacecraft per year
• Theoretical overcapacity conditioned by availability (Proton), sustainability (Sea Launch), costs (Delta IV, Atlas V), strategy (H-IIA), diplomacy (Long March), maturity (GSLV)
• Arianespace performance: guaranteed access to space for Europe through commercial success• 248 satellites launched
• Already 34 Ariane 5 launches performed (including 10 ECA)
• European family of launchers to foster launch offer competitiveness (Ariane 5, Vega and Soyuz)
• Most important order-book: roughly 40 satellites in backlog
• Over 3 year ahead workload secured for the European industry(58 Ariane 5 currently in manufacturing)
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IXth EISC : New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities
Rome, October 9, 2007
Factors impacting European launch service prospective (1/2)
• On the institutional side• Still lack of overall coherence (investment in
launchers/utilization)– European preference for launching institutional
missions– Optimizing institutional spacecraft compliancy with
European launchers
• Decision makers’ consciousness to strengthen regarding the European launch sector– For mid to long-term, Ariane 5 ECA, Soyuz and Vega
will feet European needs– European launch sector sustained equally by
commercial sales and public budgets
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IXth EISC : New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities
Rome, October 9, 2007
Factors impacting European launch service prospective (2/2)
• On the market side
• Market expectations are conservative– Reliability (technical stability), availability and service
quality (schedule and visibility), dual procurement source
• Current trends on the demand side– Boosting demand: in-orbit fleet replacement, HDTV,
mobile connectivity (spacecraft growing in mass but compliant with current launch vehicle designs)
– Difficulty to anticipate the long-term: remaining the reference standard is key
• On the offer side– Market prices driven by the production costs of
established competitors (Russian launchers) with a significant increase in $ during the last two years
– €/$ exchange rate deteriorating European competitiveness
– New era of trouble could arise from newcomers
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IXth EISC : New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities
Rome, October 9, 2007
Conclusion (1/2)
• The European model performs well
• Guaranteed access to space secured by commercial success and at market conditions
• Commercial success in the long-run depending upon the ability to remain the reference
• Current family of launchers able to satisfy requirements through robust production and exploitation conditions (reliability and flexibility)
• Launcher sector related issues are growingly industrial ones
• Launchers: operational instruments actually serving general policy objectives (information society purposes: science, defense and security, telecommunications,…)
• European technical maturity broadly achieved
• European launcher sector depending equally upon exploitation results (recurrent production) and budgetary funded activities (R&D)
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IXth EISC : New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities
Rome, October 9, 2007
Conclusion (2/2)
• European decision makers must elaborate upon those factors regarding public involvement in launcher activities
• Securing overall coherence of institutional decisions (using domestic launcher for their missions)
• Whenever possible, preventing external factors (€/$ exchange rate, newcomers) from destabilizing the launch service market
• Preparing decisions on future launcher activities and programs (ESA Ministerial Council in 2008) in accordance with exhaustive rationale (R&D/production and exploitation)
IXth EISC: New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities – Rome, October 9, 2007