IX th EISC: New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities – Rome, October 9,...

IXth EISC: New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities – Rome, October 9, 2007

New aspects of competition: Arianespace prospective

Michel DoubovickVice President, Corporate & Governmental Affairs

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IXth EISC : New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities

Rome, October 9, 2007

Constant factors shaping launch services

• Government concerns remain predominant worldwide• Strategic access to space

• European specificity: low level of utilization

• Stability of the launch service market structurally fragile• Commercial market: 20-25 spacecraft per year

• Theoretical overcapacity conditioned by availability (Proton), sustainability (Sea Launch), costs (Delta IV, Atlas V), strategy (H-IIA), diplomacy (Long March), maturity (GSLV)

• Arianespace performance: guaranteed access to space for Europe through commercial success• 248 satellites launched

• Already 34 Ariane 5 launches performed (including 10 ECA)

• European family of launchers to foster launch offer competitiveness (Ariane 5, Vega and Soyuz)

• Most important order-book: roughly 40 satellites in backlog

• Over 3 year ahead workload secured for the European industry(58 Ariane 5 currently in manufacturing)

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Factors impacting European launch service prospective (1/2)

• On the institutional side• Still lack of overall coherence (investment in

launchers/utilization)– European preference for launching institutional

missions– Optimizing institutional spacecraft compliancy with

European launchers

• Decision makers’ consciousness to strengthen regarding the European launch sector– For mid to long-term, Ariane 5 ECA, Soyuz and Vega

will feet European needs– European launch sector sustained equally by

commercial sales and public budgets

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Factors impacting European launch service prospective (2/2)

• On the market side

• Market expectations are conservative– Reliability (technical stability), availability and service

quality (schedule and visibility), dual procurement source

• Current trends on the demand side– Boosting demand: in-orbit fleet replacement, HDTV,

mobile connectivity (spacecraft growing in mass but compliant with current launch vehicle designs)

– Difficulty to anticipate the long-term: remaining the reference standard is key

• On the offer side– Market prices driven by the production costs of

established competitors (Russian launchers) with a significant increase in $ during the last two years

– €/$ exchange rate deteriorating European competitiveness

– New era of trouble could arise from newcomers

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Conclusion (1/2)

• The European model performs well

• Guaranteed access to space secured by commercial success and at market conditions

• Commercial success in the long-run depending upon the ability to remain the reference

• Current family of launchers able to satisfy requirements through robust production and exploitation conditions (reliability and flexibility)

• Launcher sector related issues are growingly industrial ones

• Launchers: operational instruments actually serving general policy objectives (information society purposes: science, defense and security, telecommunications,…)

• European technical maturity broadly achieved

• European launcher sector depending equally upon exploitation results (recurrent production) and budgetary funded activities (R&D)

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Conclusion (2/2)

• European decision makers must elaborate upon those factors regarding public involvement in launcher activities

• Securing overall coherence of institutional decisions (using domestic launcher for their missions)

• Whenever possible, preventing external factors (€/$ exchange rate, newcomers) from destabilizing the launch service market

• Preparing decisions on future launcher activities and programs (ESA Ministerial Council in 2008) in accordance with exhaustive rationale (R&D/production and exploitation)

IXth EISC: New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities – Rome, October 9, 2007

IX th EISC: New aspects of competition in a global market of space activities – Rome, October 9,...

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