Post on 01-Jan-2016
International Seminar of Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators
Moscow, 17-19 November 2010
Construction of Cyclical Indicators for Ukraine on the BTS Basis
Maryna PugachovaScientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine
BTS in Ukraine
Since 1997: industry; construction; retail trade; transport; agriculture; investment survey.
Since 2010 - non-financial services sector
Organizers:
Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research;
State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (SSCU).
Our functions are:
adopting of methodology; designing of the questionnaires; treatment of data (scanning & completion
data base); preparing different analytical reviews
(news releases for Internet site, reports for respondents, bulletins for government).
SSCU functions are:
forming the samples in regions in accordance with our methodological recommendations;
distribution of questionnaires blanks; collecting of completed questionnaires; checking of the codes in questionnaires.
Synthetic indicators for:
industry, construction, retail trade, transport, agriculture.
Global synthetic indicator for business climate
Picture 1. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in comparable prices
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
Global Synt (l. s.) y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)
Picture 2. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in constant prices
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
%
Global synthetic indicator (l. s.)
y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of economy (Economic sectors)
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic indicator
For Coincident synthetic indicator
INDUSTRY Future Business Situation
Current Business Situation
Future Production Past Production
Total Order Books Total Order Books
Foreign Order Books Foreign Order Books
– Stocks – Stocks
Future Orders Books Future Employment
– Capacity
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of economy (Economic
sectors)
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic indicator
For Coincident synthetic indicator
CONSTRUCTION Future Activity Past Activity
Order Tendency Cost Tendency
Future Cost Tendency Order Tendency
– Future Debts Work Plan
Future Business Situation Cost Level
Future Employment
– Debts on Hand
Current Business Situation
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of economy
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic indicator
For Coincident synthetic indicator
RETAIL TRADE Future Local Order Book Future Employment
Future Foreign Order Book Financial Results
Future Financial Results
TRANSPORT Work plan Work done
Present demand Present demand
Future demand Future Employment
Future Business Situation – Capacity
Future Competition Current Business Situation
The set of composite indicators by economic sector
Branches of economy (Economic
sectors)
Indicators from BTS
For Leading synthetic indicator
For Coincident synthetic indicator
AGRICULTURE Future Production-Animal Past Production-Animal
Total Order Books-Animal Total Order Books-Animal
Total Order Books-Plant Total Order Books-Plant
Forecast Order Books Animal
Current Business Situation, level
Forecast Order Books Plant
Current Business Situation, tendency
Future Business Situation
Picture 3. Leading indicator for industry
70
80
90
100
110
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Leading synthetic
Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale)
Picture 4. Coincident indicator for industry
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Coincident synthetic indicator
Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale)
Picture 5. Leading indicator for construction
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Leading syntheticindicator forconsntruction
Construction growthy-o-y (r.s.)
Picture 6. Leading indicator for agriculture
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Leading synthetic
Agricultural grows y-o-y (right scale)
Picture 7. Leading Global indicator for business climate
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Leading global synthetic indicator (l. s.)
y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)
Ifo segmentation method Segment a (demand weakness and supply-side bottlenecks).
Existence of all the main factors that constitute demand or supply-side bottlenecks: “low demand”, “shortage of materials”, “high taxes”, “shortage of equipment”, “out-dated equipment”, “shortage of working capital”, “lack of qualified personnel”.
Segment b.1 (pronounced supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and aggravation of future business situation.
Segment b.2 (temporary supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and unchanged future business situation.
Segment c (without cyclic disturbances). No supply-side bottlenecks, “good” and “satisfactory” assessments of the financial and economic condition.
Segment d.1 (pronounced demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected aggravation of the business situation.
Segment d.2 (temporary demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected unchanged (the same as in the past quarter) business situation.
Picture 8. Segmentation of industrial enterprises at industry level in accordance with cyclic categories
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
a
b.1
b.2
c
d.2
d.1
Picture 9. Segmentation of industrial enterprises manufacturing of investment goods
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
a
b.1
b.2
c
d.2
d.1
Thank you for the attention!