International Seminar of Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators

Moscow, 17-19 November 2010

Construction of Cyclical Indicators for Ukraine on the BTS Basis

Maryna PugachovaScientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research of State Statistics Committee of Ukraine

BTS in Ukraine

Since 1997: industry; construction; retail trade; transport; agriculture; investment survey.

Since 2010 - non-financial services sector

Organizers:

Scientific & Technical Complex for Statistical Research;

State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (SSCU).

Our functions are:

adopting of methodology; designing of the questionnaires; treatment of data (scanning & completion

data base); preparing different analytical reviews

(news releases for Internet site, reports for respondents, bulletins for government).

SSCU functions are:

forming the samples in regions in accordance with our methodological recommendations;

distribution of questionnaires blanks; collecting of completed questionnaires; checking of the codes in questionnaires.

Synthetic indicators for:

industry, construction, retail trade, transport, agriculture.

Global synthetic indicator for business climate

Picture 1. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in comparable prices

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

%

Global Synt (l. s.) y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)

Picture 2. Global indicator for business climate & GDP in constant prices

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

%

Global synthetic indicator (l. s.)

y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)

The set of composite indicators by economic sector

Branches of economy (Economic sectors)

Indicators from BTS

For Leading synthetic indicator

For Coincident synthetic indicator

INDUSTRY Future Business Situation

Current Business Situation

Future Production Past Production

Total Order Books Total Order Books

Foreign Order Books Foreign Order Books

– Stocks – Stocks

Future Orders Books Future Employment

– Capacity

The set of composite indicators by economic sector

Branches of economy (Economic

sectors)

Indicators from BTS

For Leading synthetic indicator

For Coincident synthetic indicator

CONSTRUCTION Future Activity Past Activity

Order Tendency Cost Tendency

Future Cost Tendency Order Tendency

– Future Debts Work Plan

Future Business Situation Cost Level

Future Employment

– Debts on Hand

Current Business Situation

The set of composite indicators by economic sector

Branches of economy

Indicators from BTS

For Leading synthetic indicator

For Coincident synthetic indicator

RETAIL TRADE Future Local Order Book Future Employment

Future Foreign Order Book Financial Results

Future Financial Results

TRANSPORT Work plan Work done

Present demand Present demand

Future demand Future Employment

Future Business Situation – Capacity

Future Competition Current Business Situation

The set of composite indicators by economic sector

Branches of economy (Economic

sectors)

Indicators from BTS

For Leading synthetic indicator

For Coincident synthetic indicator

AGRICULTURE Future Production-Animal Past Production-Animal

Total Order Books-Animal Total Order Books-Animal

Total Order Books-Plant Total Order Books-Plant

Forecast Order Books Animal

Current Business Situation, level

Forecast Order Books Plant

Current Business Situation, tendency

Future Business Situation

Picture 3. Leading indicator for industry

70

80

90

100

110

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Leading synthetic

Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale)

Picture 4. Coincident indicator for industry

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Coincident synthetic indicator

Industrial grows y-o-y (right scale)

Picture 5. Leading indicator for construction

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-65

-55

-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

Leading syntheticindicator forconsntruction

Construction growthy-o-y (r.s.)

Picture 6. Leading indicator for agriculture

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Leading synthetic

Agricultural grows y-o-y (right scale)

Picture 7. Leading Global indicator for business climate

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Leading global synthetic indicator (l. s.)

y-o-y GDP growth (r. s.)

Ifo segmentation method Segment a (demand weakness and supply-side bottlenecks).

Existence of all the main factors that constitute demand or supply-side bottlenecks: “low demand”, “shortage of materials”, “high taxes”, “shortage of equipment”, “out-dated equipment”, “shortage of working capital”, “lack of qualified personnel”.

Segment b.1 (pronounced supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and aggravation of future business situation.

Segment b.2 (temporary supply-side bottlenecks). Existence of all the main factors from segment а, except for “demand weakness”, and unchanged future business situation.

Segment c (without cyclic disturbances). No supply-side bottlenecks, “good” and “satisfactory” assessments of the financial and economic condition.

Segment d.1 (pronounced demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected aggravation of the business situation.

Segment d.2 (temporary demand weakness). The only bottleneck is “demand weakness”, added by the expected unchanged (the same as in the past quarter) business situation.

Picture 8. Segmentation of industrial enterprises at industry level in accordance with cyclic categories

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

a

b.1

b.2

c

d.2

d.1

Picture 9. Segmentation of industrial enterprises manufacturing of investment goods

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

a

b.1

b.2

c

d.2

d.1

Thank you for the attention!