Innovating Past Global Crisis

Ramez Naam @ramez

RAMEZ NAAM

mez@morethanhuman.org @ramez

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NASA

It was the best of times, It was the worst of times

BEST OF TIMES

INFANT MORTALITYEgypt 1973: 15%Egypt 1940s: 25%US 1900: 25%

Egypt Today: 2%US Today: 0.7%

Lamia Hassan

LONGER LIVES

Rich Nations

World

Average Years of Life

Wikimedia Commons

Percent of World Living on $1 / Day

PovertyImages

Addicted to Growth

Aivaris Zukis

WORST OF TIMES

Dying Forests

Laitche

Geraldine Garcon Juncas

Dhy

Sam Beebe

NASA

NASA

Kansas University

Bruno de Giusti

Temperature Change since 1880 (degrees F)

Linfield College

GlobalWarmingArt.com

GlobalWarmingArt.com

GlobalWarmingArt.com

European PressPhoto Agency

Xinhua

UPI

Andrey Smirnov

Larry W. Smith

Dictionnaire-Environnement

Footprint

NASA

Addicted to Growth

Aivaris Zukis

Footprint 2

NASA

LONG HISTORY OF

OVERCOMING LIMITS

Wayne Osborn

Wikimedia Commons

Star of the Republic Museum

Historical Society of Canada

PHYSICAL RESOURCES ARE VAST

10,000 x

10 Seconds of Sunlight

= 1 Day of Humanity’s Energy Use

1 Hour of Sunlight

= 1 Year of Humanity’s Energy Use

0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity in 2030.

Fresh Water

Not Resource Limits

Innovation Limits

Innovations Multiply Resource Access

Moore’s Law for Solar PV

AMD

Cost of Solar Power

CROSSOVER: TODAY - 2025

Michael Dawes

Storage

Javier Gil

Storage

Bensonuka

IF WE CAN CRACK ENERGY…

DESALINATION ENERGY

Atlaslin

Bern@tUSDA

Bern@tUSDA

Innovations Reduce Resource Use

Multiplier / Reducer: Agriculture

LESS ENERGY PER CALORIE GROWN

Boeing

Not Just Land: Less Oil Use

1972 2002 2011 2030 (projected)0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Barr

els

of O

il Pe

r Per

son

Per Y

ear Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year

Colfert

iPhone vs. ENIAC

Michael O’Donnell

Knowledge is a Replicator

PROBLEM SOLVED?

NO: A RACE

CONSUMPTION VS

INNOVATION

WINNING THE RACE

R&D

EDUCATION

POVERTY REDUCTION

TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE

FIX THE MARKET

FIX MARKET FAILURES

Terry Luns

Marvin Greene

Cleveland State University

Cleveland State University

Commons

Brent Durken

Decoupled Growth From Pollution

Rules Not Resources

NASA

NASA

CFC Release (thousands of tons)

Bob Baer

THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(A WIDER VARIETY

THAN TODAY)

EXTERNALITY

THINGS WE CARE ABOUT

THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE

(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)

(Improving the Market Algorithm)

Tax the Bad, Not the Good

(Improve the Tax Algorithm)

Income Tax Carbon Tax

David Suzuki

Pollution NOT

an inevitable outcome of

Growth

Cleveland State University

Brent Durken

NASA

NASA

Not LimitsPolicy

Design of our EconomyPace of Innovation

What Can We Do?

1. Communicate

2. Participate

3. Innovate

4. Keep Hope

Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other Resources

RAMEZ NAAM

mez@morethanhuman.org @ramez

Buy at Amazon