Post on 23-Jan-2016
description
Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in
Mekong River Delta and Affect on Farmer’s Livelihood
AIACC AS 07
Nguyen Thi Hien ThuanSub-Institute of Hydrometeorology of South Vietnam
Suppakorn ChinvannoSEA START RC
CONTENTSCONTENTS
1.1. ObjectivesObjectives
2.2. Scope and method of study Scope and method of study
3.3. Main activitiesMain activities
4.4. Major findingsMajor findings
Objectives:Objectives:
To understand the long term impacts of climate To understand the long term impacts of climate change on rice production in Mekong River Deltachange on rice production in Mekong River Delta
To understand the vulnerability of community in To understand the vulnerability of community in the Mekong River Delta from impacts of climate the Mekong River Delta from impacts of climate change on rice productionchange on rice production
To seek adaptation option(s) on such impacts to To seek adaptation option(s) on such impacts to minimize vulnerability to the communityminimize vulnerability to the community
Analysis of impact of climate change on rice Analysis of impact of climate change on rice productionproduction
To simulate the yield of rain-fed rice production in To simulate the yield of rain-fed rice production in the MRD under different climate scenarios (1.5 x the MRD under different climate scenarios (1.5 x CO2 and 2 x CO2) using DSSAT crop modeling CO2 and 2 x CO2) using DSSAT crop modeling technique.technique.
Climate scenarios with outputs from CCAM regional Climate scenarios with outputs from CCAM regional climate model, are generated to analyze the climate model, are generated to analyze the change of rice yield in the region.change of rice yield in the region.
Produce climate risk map of rice production by Produce climate risk map of rice production by comparing the change in the yield of rice from comparing the change in the yield of rice from observed average actual yield and the result from observed average actual yield and the result from the simulation.the simulation.
Scope and Method of study:
Assessment on climate risk at the Assessment on climate risk at the commune levelcommune level
Conduct field surveyConduct field survey Analyze how the community livelihood may Analyze how the community livelihood may
depend on the rice productiondepend on the rice production Analyze the capacity to cope with disasterAnalyze the capacity to cope with disaster Produce vulnerability map – consider the Produce vulnerability map – consider the
community which have household income community which have household income reduction beyond “acceptable” level and does reduction beyond “acceptable” level and does not have sufficient alternate source of income not have sufficient alternate source of income to maintain their livelihood.to maintain their livelihood.
Scope and Method of study:
Main Activities:Main Activities:
Phase 1:Phase 1: Simulation of the yield of rice production using DSSAT Simulation of the yield of rice production using DSSAT
4.0. Need data from VN as input to the model include: 4.0. Need data from VN as input to the model include: crop management data, soil properties, weather data crop management data, soil properties, weather data (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours).temperature, sunshine hours).
Phase 2: Phase 2: Field survey assessment to cover 4 provinces of the Field survey assessment to cover 4 provinces of the
MRD of Viet Nam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An MRD of Viet Nam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An Giang. Coverage of assessment in each province Giang. Coverage of assessment in each province covers 2 communes per district and 4 districts per covers 2 communes per district and 4 districts per province. province.
Study areas
- Located in the MRD in VN
- Rice production is a major agricultural activity, >1 mil ton of rice product per year
- Rice production is highly affected by climate factors (floods/inundations, droughts, inappropriate rains, …
4 provinces: Long An, CÇn Th¬, §ång Th¸p, An Giang
Rice growing areas in MRD
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Years
Are
as (1
000h
a)
Winter-springSummer-autumnSeasonal
Impacts of Climate Change on Rice ProductionImpacts of Climate Change on Rice Production
Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Tmin, SRAD) at different COTmin, SRAD) at different CO22 concentration concentration
1.0xCO1.0xCO22: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline
1.5xCO1.5xCO22: 2040 - 2049: 2040 - 2049
2.0xCO2.0xCO2 2 : 2066 – 2075: 2066 – 2075
The simulation has been made for each year of the 3 The simulation has been made for each year of the 3 scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been selected: dry/median/wet years selected: dry/median/wet years
Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production: DSSAT crop model simulation results
DSSAT software has been used for rice yield simulation for 1978 – 2002 for each of 4 provinces with:- 2 rice types: IR64, IR66 (short-term rice ~ 90-95 days)- 3 soil types: Alluvium, shallow acid sulfate soil, deep acid sulfate soil- Irrigated and non-irrigated crops
Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Tmin, SRAD) at different CO2 concentrations
1.0xCO2: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline
1.5xCO2: 2040 - 2049
2.0xCO2 : 2066 – 2075
The simulation has been made for each period of the 3 scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been selected: dry/median/wet years
Sim. yields vs obs. yield for WS rice (Long An)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Simulated yield
Obs yield
Sim. yields vs obs. yield for SA rice (Long An)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Simulated yield
Observed yield
CCAM CCAM rainfall rainfall
scenariosscenariosDry/wet year Dry/wet year
for for 1.0CO1.0CO22 (upper)(upper)
1.5CO1.5CO2 2 (middle), (middle), 2.0CO2.0CO22(lower)(lower)
Change in rice yield in different CC Change in rice yield in different CC scenariosscenarios
(average value for each scenario compared with (average value for each scenario compared with baseline)baseline)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0%
1.5 CO2 WS 1.8 1.3 0.1 2.1
1.5 CO2 SA 3 -3 3 0
2 CO2 WS -8 -8 -11 -11
2 CO2 SA -18 -12 -9 -14
An Giang Dong Thap Can Tho Long An
Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)
Winter – Spring 1.5CO2 2.0CO2
Dry Med Wet Dry Med Wet
AN GIANG 4 -2 5 -7 4 -9
CAN THO -6 14 2 -14 1 -8
DONG THAP 0 12 5 -10 -2 -10
LONG AN -5 13 7 -14 -5 -6
Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)
Summer-Autumn 1.5CO2 2.0CO2
Dry Med Wet Dry Med Wet
AN GIANG -10 -2 10 -42 -57 21
CAN THO -9 0 11 -27 -24 2
DONG THAP 3 -10 8 -34 -53 -5
LONG AN -16 3 9 -31 -26 -3
Rice yield anomalies of different climate scenarios
Winter-Spring Rice 1,5CO2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
AN GIANG CAN THO DONG THAP LONG AN
Dry Med Wet
Summer-Autumn Rice 1.5 CO2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
AN GIANG CAN THO DONG THAP LONG AN
Dry Med Wet
Winter-Spring Rice 2.0CO2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
AN GIANG CAN THO DONG THAP LONG AN
Dry Med Wet
Summer-Autumn Rice 2.0CO2
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
AN GIANG CAN THO DONG THAP LONG AN
Dry Med Wet
Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios
2.0xCO2.0xCO2 2 scenarioscenario
Winter-Spring riceWinter-Spring riceDry Median WetDry Median Wet
1.5xCO1.5xCO2 2 scenarioscenario
Summer-Autumn riceSummer-Autumn rice
2.0xCO2.0xCO2 2 scenarioscenario
Dry Median WetDry Median Wet
Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios
1.5xCO1.5xCO2 2 scenarioscenario
Field SurveyField Survey– The survey was conducted at 4 provinces of MRD: Long The survey was conducted at 4 provinces of MRD: Long
An, Can Tho, Dong Thap and An Giang x 4 districts x 2 An, Can Tho, Dong Thap and An Giang x 4 districts x 2 communes, total of 40 agricultural officials + 64 farmers.communes, total of 40 agricultural officials + 64 farmers.
– Information collected from survey includes:Information collected from survey includes:
General household condition (Total land area; crop area – 1 General household condition (Total land area; crop area – 1 crop, 2 crops, 3 crops per year; rice growing area; population, crop, 2 crops, 3 crops per year; rice growing area; population, labour,…)labour,…)
Household economic conditions (total income, income from rice Household economic conditions (total income, income from rice production, other income sources, Hh expenditure, surplus production, other income sources, Hh expenditure, surplus revenue, land ownership,…)revenue, land ownership,…)
Climate risk groups (based on multiple indicators)Climate risk groups (based on multiple indicators)
Coping capacity & strategyCoping capacity & strategy
Climate Risk Analysis: Measurement Multi-criteria, multiple indicatorsMulti-criteria, multiple indicators
IndexIndex WeightWeight Measured/Calculated asMeasured/Calculated as Value Value ScoringScoring
Household Economic ConditionHousehold Economic Condition
11 Sufficient household Sufficient household productivityproductivity
11 Total HH income / Total HH ExpenditureTotal HH income / Total HH Expenditure 1 - 31 - 3
22 Surplus household revenueSurplus household revenue 11 Percentage of (HH income – HH expenditure) / HH Percentage of (HH income – HH expenditure) / HH ExpenditureExpenditure
1 - 31 - 3
33 Self-sustain rice Self-sustain rice consumptionconsumption
11 Produce sufficient rice for own consumption – Yes / NoProduce sufficient rice for own consumption – Yes / No 1 - 21 - 2
44 Land ownershipLand ownership 11 To indicate the critical production resource – Yes / NoTo indicate the critical production resource – Yes / No 1 - 21 - 2
Rice Production DependencyRice Production Dependency
55 Sustainable livelihood Sustainable livelihood without rice productionwithout rice production
22 Ratio of Total extra income / Total fixed expensesRatio of Total extra income / Total fixed expenses 2 - 62 - 6
66 Level of livelihood Level of livelihood dependency on rice dependency on rice productionproduction
22 percentage of household fixed expenses that rely on rice percentage of household fixed expenses that rely on rice income: (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/income: (Total household expenditure - Extra income)/Rice Rice incomeincome * 100 * 100
2 - 62 - 6
Coping CapacityCoping Capacity
77 External financial support External financial support mechanismmechanism
22 Accessible to external loan to support rice production – Yes Accessible to external loan to support rice production – Yes / No/ No
2 - 42 - 4
88 Alternate source of incomeAlternate source of income 22 Sufficient alternate source of income to maintain livelihoodSufficient alternate source of income to maintain livelihood 2 - 62 - 6
Possible range of vulnerability value scoringPossible range of vulnerability value scoring 12 to 3212 to 32
Climate Risk Analysis
Climate risk groups: value Scoring:Climate risk groups: value Scoring:12 – 19 = Low vulnerability12 – 19 = Low vulnerability (13 Households)(13 Households)>19 – 26 = Moderate vulnerability>19 – 26 = Moderate vulnerability (34 Households)(34 Households)> 26 – 32 = High vulnerability> 26 – 32 = High vulnerability (17 Households)(17 Households)
Climate Risk Groups
20%
53%
27%
Low Mod High
Climate RiskClimate Risk
Farmer's experienced climate variability that affects livelihood and rice production
Drought in
winter-
spring crop
Dry spells in
rainy season
Prolonged rain
Too sunny in dry
season,
drought
Long-lasting flood
Extended
flooding areas
Deep inundation
Low vul. 3 2 12 9 7 2 5
Mod vul 6 7 21 10 22 7 13
High vul 2 5 8 5 12 8 8
Low vulnerable farmersLow vulnerable farmers (13 Households)(13 Households)Moderate vulnerable farmersModerate vulnerable farmers (34 Households)(34 Households)High vulnerable farmersHigh vulnerable farmers (17 Households)(17 Households)
Coping strategiesCoping strategies
Experience in coping with climate change to reduce adverse impacts
Normally flooded
Deeply flooded
Long-lasting flood
Drought for long time
Rain for long time
Low vulnerable group
13
Households
pumping, embankment, drainage pumping, drainage canals, dredging,,
fish breeding buy drying machine
short term rice, appropriate crop
earlier harvest
out of control
Experience in coping with climate change to reduce adverse impacts
Normally flooded
Deeply flooded
Long-lasting flood
Drought for long time
Rain for long time
Moderate vulnerable group
34Households
Pumping, embankment, drainage pumping, more irrigation canal, dredging
short term rice,
appropriate crop
2 crops, appropriatecrop and
breed
other crops, Drought- resistant Varieties
More solid stem breed
Machineryintervention
fertilize buy drying machine
earlier sowing
earlier harvest
no crops, unable to
cope
Coping strategiesCoping strategies
Experience in coping with climate change to reduce adverse impacts
Normally flooded
Deeply flooded
Long-lasting flood
Drought for long time
Rain for long time
HighVulnerable
group
17Households
pumping, embankment, drainage irrigation, drainage, canal and river dredging
embankment.strengthning canal system
reducing water reduce No of crops/yr,
change sowing time
earlier harvest ,
later sowing
Short-term rice,appropriate crop,
appropriate production zones
short term rice
Drought- resistant varieties
unable coping live with flood
Coping strategiesCoping strategies
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSRice production in the Rice production in the MRDMRD tends to reduce in the future tends to reduce in the future from impacts of CC. The adverse impacts are more from impacts of CC. The adverse impacts are more serious in extreme years, especially in dry conditions. serious in extreme years, especially in dry conditions.
The multi-criteria technique is used in the assessment of The multi-criteria technique is used in the assessment of rain-fed farmer vulnerability to climate impact. A method rain-fed farmer vulnerability to climate impact. A method has been set up to categorize vulnerability groups, their has been set up to categorize vulnerability groups, their socio-economic condition and the sensitivity to climate socio-economic condition and the sensitivity to climate impact on rice production. impact on rice production.
Farmers in the MekongFarmers in the Mekong River delta area seems to have River delta area seems to have sufficient capacity to cope with the impact of climate sufficient capacity to cope with the impact of climate change on rice production due to the high productivity change on rice production due to the high productivity level and existing coping mechanism. However, due to level and existing coping mechanism. However, due to heavy dependency on rice production and the lack of CC heavy dependency on rice production and the lack of CC awareness, a large number of faming households are awareness, a large number of faming households are moderately –highly vulnerable to CC.moderately –highly vulnerable to CC.
Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in
Mekong River Delta and Affect on Farmer’s Livelihood
Thank You for your Attention!Thank You for your Attention!
AIACC AS 07