IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel

2014 - a year of important decision (S) for Iran’s supreme leader

Role of the Supreme Leader- Consults with different bodies and personalities in Iran - Ultimate decision maker- Sets red lines for negotiation team

Chances of success for the current nuclear talks

President Obama:50 : 50 My estimate:60 : 40

3 miscalculations by the supreme leader = 3 reasons for my optimism

Miscalculation number 1 -He got 2009 wrong: The Iranian regime was on the verge of being overthrown.- Impact on regime legitimacy and nuclear program (internally)

Miscalculation number 2: turning down Obama’s diplomatic overtures

Miscalculation number 3: Iran could get through sanctionsIran earned $650 billion during Ahmadinejad’s presidency, $200 billion is missingBozorgmehr, Najmeh “Iran, Rogue Trader” Financial Times 05/06/2014- Lack of consensus and legitimacy to unite people around the flag

Where is the IRGC in this story?

Its important to get 2014 right

The question of Ayatollah Khamenei’s legacy- another reason for a deal. Removing sanctions needed because of:- High inflation-Iran’s oil infrastructure- Draught