The Iran Nuclear Crisis Herzliya Conference Scott D. Sagan February 4, 2009.
IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel
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Transcript of IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel
IDC Herzliya Conference 2014 - Iran Panel
2014 - a year of important decision (S) for Iran’s supreme leader
Role of the Supreme Leader- Consults with different bodies and personalities in Iran - Ultimate decision maker- Sets red lines for negotiation team
Chances of success for the current nuclear talks
President Obama:50 : 50 My estimate:60 : 40
3 miscalculations by the supreme leader = 3 reasons for my optimism
Miscalculation number 1 -He got 2009 wrong: The Iranian regime was on the verge of being overthrown.- Impact on regime legitimacy and nuclear program (internally)
Miscalculation number 2: turning down Obama’s diplomatic overtures
Miscalculation number 3: Iran could get through sanctionsIran earned $650 billion during Ahmadinejad’s presidency, $200 billion is missingBozorgmehr, Najmeh “Iran, Rogue Trader” Financial Times 05/06/2014- Lack of consensus and legitimacy to unite people around the flag
Where is the IRGC in this story?
Its important to get 2014 right
The question of Ayatollah Khamenei’s legacy- another reason for a deal. Removing sanctions needed because of:- High inflation-Iran’s oil infrastructure- Draught