Post on 24-Apr-2022
HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
December 2010
CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary ................................................................... 4
2. Introduction .............................................................................. 6
3. The impact of the proposed route on property values ............... 8
4. The impact of the proposed route on sales volumes ................ 14
5. The impact on urban and rural areas ..................................... 19
6. The impact around tunnel portals ........................................... 23
7. Conclusion .............................................................................. 30
APPENDICES
A. Appendix 1 - Methodology...................................................... 34
B. Appendix 2 – The Route .......................................................... 35
C. Appendix 3 - Tunnels .............................................................. 37
D. Appendix 4 – Analysis Zones .................................................. 39
E. Appendix 5 - Data .................................................................. 43
F. Appendix 6 – Glossary of Terms .............................................. 44
G. Appendix 7 – National and Regional analysis ......................... 45
H. Appendix 8 – Study Limitations ............................................... 50
1
Executive Summary
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Executive Summary
Page
4
EXEC
UTIV
E SU
MM
ARY
High Speed 2 Ltd commissioned CB Richard Ellis to examine whether the announcement of
the HS2 route in March 2010 impacted on local housing market activity. To this end we
compared residential property transaction levels and values in the six months before and
after the announcement. We studied areas next to the line (Zone A) and compared these
changes with those further away from the line (Zone B). We also considered activity in areas
far enough away to be unaffected by way of a control sample (Zone C).
1. Our research found that the housing markets in areas next to the proposed route
have weakened since the announcement. Generally we found that in these areas
house prices and sales volumes have fallen since the announcement.
2. Further away from the line values and volumes either rose or fell to a lesser extent.
The two charts below show price and activity falls in Zone A, which is the analysis
area nearest to the route. There were increases further away.
3. Prices and volumes had weakened more in rural areas than urban areas. Values
and sales volumes fell in the rural areas, but increased in the more densely
populated areas. There is likely to be existing noise blight from other infrastructure
in urban areas which has been built into pricing levels.
4. Areas immediately around tunnel portals saw a negative change on prices and
volumes where the tunnelled line emerges into an overland section. Conversely we
identified a positive change on the other side where the line is underground.
While this study does not account for other factors affecting housing markets along the
route, the consistency of the results point to a relationship between proximity to the route
and weaker values and transaction levels following the announcement. It is possible that
specific factors like new residential development, investment in other transport infrastructure
and the growth of employment centres may have lifted sales volumes and prices, or vice
versa. However, it is beyond the scope of this research to look into these. The only exception
is urban and rural markets which we considered separately on the request of HS2 Ltd. More
detailed and area specific analysis could form the basis of future research.
Executive Summary
Figure 1. Changes in values
following the announcement of
the proposed route
Figure 2. Changes in sales volumes
following the announcement of the
proposed route
(2)%
(1)%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
All areas (excl tunnels)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Zone A Zone B Zone C
(6)%
(4)%
(2)%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
All areas (excl tunnels)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Zone A Zone B Zone C
Source for both charts: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Executive Summary
Page
5
EXEC
UTIV
E SU
MM
ARY
2
Introduction
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Introduction
Page
6
INTR
ODUC
TION
INTRODUCTION
Background
High Speed Two Limited (HS2 Ltd) was set up by the Government to consider the case for
new high speed rail services in the UK. Created in January 2009, it examines the case for
rail services linking London, northern England and Scotland. It also specifically considers
the feasibility of, and business case for, a new high speed rail line between London and the
West Midlands, the subject of this paper.
HS2 delivered a report to Ministers at the end of 2009, published in March 2010, alongside
the previous Government‟s Command Paper on high speed rail. In light of HS2 Ltd‟s new
remit of 11 June 2010, the coalition Government asked HS2 Ltd to carry out further work
on a Heathrow connection, along with a report on the comparative case for different ways
of connecting the West-Midlands, Manchester and Leeds. This work will inform the
Government‟s overall strategy and timetable for establishing a high speed rail network.
HS2 Ltd has been asked by the Government to plan a public consultation for early 2011.
This will represent an opportunity for those with an interest to find out more about the
proposals and to put forward their views.
In March 2010, it was proposed that the second high speed rail service would run from
London Euston, mainly in tunnel, to an interchange with Crossrail, west of Paddington, past
West Ruislip alongside the Chiltern Main Line, to Amersham then on to Aylesbury. After
Aylsebury, the line would run alongside the Aylesbury to Verney Junction line, joining it
north of Quainton road and then broadly following the direction of the dismantled Great
Central Main Line. Beyond Brackley, the route strikes out to the north-west across open
countryside. See maps 7 and 8 in appendix 4 for more information.
With this announcement some home owners discovered the possibility of having their
property blighted, with some media commentary suggesting that houses within 500 meters
of the track may lose as much as 20% on the asking price. The debate on the effect of HS2
on house prices near the route is ongoing.
The purpose of this report and our approach
This report provides independent analysis to reveal the facts and examine whether the
housing market around the proposed route has been affected since the announcements of
the route. To this end we compared residential property transaction levels and values before
and after the announcement in areas immediately around the proposed route (Zone A). We
compared areas immediately around the route with areas further away (Zones B and C).
For more information please see Appendix 1 – Methodology.
The report is structured:
The report first considers changes in values along the whole route of HS2 excluding
the two areas where the line runs into a tunnel (see Appendix 3 – Tunnels). It
compares areas close to the line with those further away so we can see if the line
has affected prices nearby. It then does the same for sales volumes.
Next, we undertake the same analysis, but this time separate areas between urban
and rural.
The final analysis looks at how areas immediately around the tunnel exits have
been affected.
Introduction
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Introduction
Page
7
INTR
ODUC
TION
3
The impact of the proposed route on
sales values
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on property values
Page
8
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
PROP
ERTY
VAL
UES
In this section, we examine how property values have changed following the announcement
of HS2. We first consider the affect on all property types combined and then disaggregate
to the individual property types; flats, detached etc. We compare areas, on the over-
ground section of the route, close to the line – Zone A – with areas further away - Zone B
and C. For more information please see Appendix 1 – Methodology.
THE IMPACT ON ALL TYPES OF PROPERTY
Our first analysis considered the difference between prices prior to and post the
route announcement for all properties along the whole route, except where the line
runs in a tunnel.
We observed prices in Zone A, nearest to the route had fallen by 1.3% compared
with a rise of 3.7% in Zone B and a 7.2% rise in Zone C (See Fig. 1).
Given that prices have weakened near to the route, but not further away it suggests
that HS2 has had a detrimental effect on prices, all other things being equal.
Figure 1. Values in Period 1 and Period 2 - All properties (overground)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(£'0
00
)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
The impact of the proposed route on property values
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on property values
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9
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
PROP
ERTY
VAL
UES
THE IMPACT ON DIFFERENT TYPES OF PROPERTY
Flats
This analysis considers the difference in prices before and after the announcement
just for flats in all areas except tunnels.
Prices for flats in Zone A have fallen by 2.2% following the announcement
compared with a rise of 10.2% and 6.1% in Zones B and C respectively (see Fig. 2).
This means, as with all property types taken together, prices have weakened near
to the route but not further away. Unlike the previous analysis the increase has
been greater in Zone B than Zone C. We conclude that HS2 has had a detrimental
effect on prices of flats, all other things being equal.
Figure 2. Values in Period 1 and Period 2 - Flats
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(£)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on property values
Page
10
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
PROP
ERTY
VAL
UES
Terraced Houses
This analysis considers the difference in prices before and after the announcement
for terraced housing in all areas except tunnels.
Terraces have seen their prices rise by 1% in Zone A. However Zones B and C have
seen a greater rise, 3.3% and 2.5% respectively (see figure 3).
Although prices have not fallen, they have risen by a lesser extent, suggesting a
negative impact from HS2 all other things being equal.
Figure 3. Values in Period 1 and Period 2 - Terraced (excluding tunnels)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(£'0
00
)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on property values
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11
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
PROP
ERTY
VAL
UES
Semi-detached houses
The difference in price levels before and after the announcement for semi-detached
in all over-ground areas.
All prices have risen, but prices in Zone A rose by the least. Prices in Zone A have
risen by 1.4%, compared with a rise of 5.4% and 5.9% in Zones B and C
respectively (see figure 4).
Again the prices of semi-detached properties near HS2 have been negatively
impacted all other things being equal.
Figure 4. Values in Period 1 and Period 2 – Semi-detached (excluding
tunnels)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(£'0
00
)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on property values
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12
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
PROP
ERTY
VAL
UES
Detached houses
The same analysis is undertaken here, but for detached properties.
Prices of detached houses in Zone A have fallen by 1.8% compared with a fall of
0.2% in zone B and a 2.3% rise in Zone C (see figure 5).
This suggests prices of detached properties have weakened near to the route, but
not to the same extent further away. On this basis HS2 has had a detrimental effect
on prices, all other things being equal.
Figure 5. Values in Period 1 and Period 2 – Detached (excluding tunnels)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(£'0
00
)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on property values
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13
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
PROP
ERTY
VAL
UES
3
The impact of the proposed route on
sales volumes
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on sales volumes
Page
14
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
SALE
S VO
LUM
ES
In this section we identify whether property transaction levels have been affected by the
announcement of HS2. Again we focus first on the overall market and then disaggregate
out to individual property types.
THE IMPACT ON ALL TYPES OF PROPERTY
This analysis considered the difference in sales volumes before and after the
announcement for all properties in all over-ground areas.
Volumes in Zone A fell by 4.5% compared with a rise of 8.4% in zone B and 3% in
Zone C.
The sample behind this percentage change figure is 6,585 sales in Zone A 13,285
in Zone B and 17,161 in Zone C (see figure 6).
As sales volumes has weakened near to the route, but not further away, we
conclude HS2 has had a detrimental effect on sales volumes, all other things being
equal.
Figure 6. Sales in Period 1 vs Period 2 - All properties (overground)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
To
tal s
ale
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(no
.)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
The impact of the proposed route on sales volumes
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on sales volumes
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15
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
SALE
S VO
LUM
ES
THE IMPACT ON DIFFERENT TYPES OF PROPERTY
Flats
This analysis considered the difference in sales volumes before and after the
announcement for flats in all areas except tunnels.
Sales volumes in Zone A have fallen by 25.0% compared with a fall of 2.1% in
zone B and a 0.8% rise in Zone C (see figure 7).
These figures are derived from 1,319 sales in Zone A 2,925, in Zone B and in
Zone C 3,195.
This suggests - very strongly - that sales volumes of flats have suffered in areas
close to the HS2 route, all other things being equal.
Figure 7. Sales in Period 1 and Period 2 - Flats (excluding tunnels)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
To
tal s
ale
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(no
.)Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on sales volumes
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16
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
SALE
S VO
LUM
ES
Terraced housing
This analysis considered the difference in sales volumes before and after the
announcement for terraced houses in all over-ground areas.
Sales volumes of terraces in all areas saw volumes fall in Zone A by 5.1%, while
volumes in Zone B rose 7.3% and fell by 2.7% in Zone C (see figure 8).
These figures are derived from 1581 sales in Zone A 3472, in Zone B and in Zone
C 4535.
Although sales of terraces fell in the area immediately around the HS2 route (Zone
A) and rose in Zone B, the results are less conclusive, because sales also fell in
Zone C. The weakening in Zone C suggests factors other than HS2 may also be
influencing volumes.
Figure 8. Sales in Period 1 and Period 2 - Terraced (over-ground)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
To
tal s
ale
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(no
.)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on sales volumes
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17
THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
SALE
S VO
LUM
ES
Semi-detached houses
Sales volumes for semi-detached properties in Zone A rose by 4.2% over the two
time periods. This compares with rises of 11.4% and 6.5% for Zones B and C
respectively.
These figures are derived from 1,973 sales in Zone A 3,926 in Zone B and in Zone
C 5,546.
Sales of semi-detached houses rose in all zones. However, the rise was less
significant nearer to the proposed route, suggesting a degree of adverse impact
[from HS2], but does not directly show evidence of blight.
Figure 9. Sales in Period 1 and Period 2 – Semi-detached (excluding tunnels)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
To
tal s
ale
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(no
.)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact of the proposed route on sales volumes
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THE
IMPA
CT O
F TH
E PR
OPOS
ED R
OUTE
ON
SALE
S VO
LUM
ES
Detached houses
Volumes of detached houses in all areas excluding tunnels rose by 6.3% in Zone A.
This compares with a rise of 17.2% in zone B and a 6.9% rise in Zone C.
These figures are derived from 1,712 sales in Zone A 2,962 in Zone B and 3,885
in Zone C.
Sales of detached houses rose in all areas. The largest rise was in Zone B,
suggesting being close to the route could have negatively impacted on volumes but
does not directly show evidence of blight.
Figure 10. Sales in Period 1 and Period 2 – Detached (excluding tunnels)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A Zone B Zone C
To
tal s
ale
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(no
.)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact on urban and rural areas
Page
19
THE
IMPA
CT O
N UR
BAN
AND
RURA
L ARE
AS
The impact on urban and rural areas
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact on urban and rural areas
Page
20
THE
IMPA
CT O
N UR
BAN
AND
RURA
L ARE
AS
5
The impact on urban and rural areas
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact on urban and rural areas
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21
THE
IMPA
CT O
N UR
BAN
AND
RURA
L ARE
AS
THE IMPACT ON SALES VALUES
This next section focuses solely on the areas closest to the proposed route. Here, instead of
comparing Zone A with B and C, it compares changes in the housing market between
urban and rural areas. As with the previous section, we examine both prices and sales
volumes. Please see Map 9 in Appendix 4 for more detail on what areas this analysis
considers.
In rural areas of Zone A values have fallen 4.9% whereas in urban areas they have
risen 2.3% (see figure 11).
Our analysis suggests rural areas have been impacted proportionally more than
urban areas. Urban areas already suffer noise blight from other transport
infrastructure and this has been built into pricing levels; as a result further noise
blight is probably less relevant than in rural settlements.
Figure 11. Changes in values in rural and urban areas of Zone A - All
properties
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Rural Urban
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(£'0
00
)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact on urban and rural areas
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THE
IMPA
CT O
N UR
BAN
AND
RURA
L ARE
AS
THE IMPACT ON SALES VOLUMES
In rural areas sales volumes have fallen 0.7%. In urban areas they have fallen 8%.
This suggests that sales in urban areas - other things being equal – have been hit
hardest by the route announcement.
This appears to contradict the previous findings, which suggest prices in rural areas
have reduced more. However, it probably suggests potential sellers / buyers in
urban areas have been dissuaded from moving, partly due to reduced prices, but
also until the route is confirmed or blight compensation confirmed.
Figure 12. Changes in sales volumes in rural and urban areas of Zone A -
All properties (excluding tunnels)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Rural Urban
Sa
les v
olu
me
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(no
.)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact around tunnel portals
Page
23
THE
IMPA
CT A
ROUN
D TU
NNEL
POR
TALS
The impact around tunnel portals
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact around tunnel portals
Page
24
THE
IMPA
CT A
ROUN
D TU
NNEL
POR
TALS
6
The impact around tunnel portals
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact around tunnel portals
Page
25
THE
IMPA
CT A
ROUN
D TU
NNEL
POR
TALS
THE IMPACT ON SALES VALUES
In this analysis we study sales values and volumes in areas immediately around areas the
tunnel entrances. We compared the areas where the line emerges with areas where the line
is underground. We first looked at all four portals together (two for each tunnel) and then
each in isolation. For more information on the exact location of these portals, please see
Maps 11 and 12 in Appendix 4.
The main conclusion is that values have weakened proportionally more where
trains would emerge from the tunnel. The closer to the portal, the more the
negative impact.
In areas around the four portals of Tunnels 1 and 2, prices in Zone A fell by 9.2%.
This compares with a 2.4% rise in the housing markets that are “over” the tunnels.
In Zone B house prices fell by 2.3% in areas just preceding the tunnel entrance. In
comparison prices rose by 19.3% in the properties “above” the tunnel. Zone C
showed almost equal rise in the two samples. The negative effect of the portals on
values therefore diminishes with distance (see figure 13).
This pattern is repeated when we observe the portals individually (except for the end
of Tunnel 2). Figure 14 looks at the start Tunnel 1. In Zone A there was a fall of
24.1% in the area at the tunnel entrance compared with a rise of 50% in the over-
ground section of the tunnel. In Zone B we saw a fall of 17.1% at the entrance area
compared with a rise of 46.3% over the tunnel area. Zone C showed a rise of 5.9%
in the over ground sections compared with a fall of 14% over the tunnel.
Figure 15 illustrates changes in values on the proposed line at the end of Tunnel 1.
In Zone A there was a fall of 2.1% between periods 1 and 2 in the over ground
sections compared with a rise of 1.9% over the tunnel. In Zone B we saw a rise of
9.3% in the over ground sections compared with a rise of 9.3% over the tunnel.
Zone C showed a rise of 6.2% in the over ground sections compared with a rise of
8% over the tunnel.
Figure 13. Values in Period 1 vs 2 - All properties All tunnel portals
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Tunnel Entrance Over Tunnel Tunnel Entrance Over Tunnel Tunnel Entrance Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact around tunnel portals
Page
26
THE
IMPA
CT A
ROUN
D TU
NNEL
POR
TALS
Figure 14. Values changes Period 1 vs 2
- All properties Start of Tunnel 1
Figure 15. Values changes Period 1 vs 2
- All properties End of Tunnel 1
Figure 16 shows that in Zone A at the start of Tunnel 2, there was a fall of 10.7%
between periods 1 and 2 in the entrance sections compared with a rise of 0.1%
over the tunnel. In Zone B we saw a rise of 2.4% in the entrance sections compared
with a fall of 2.4% over the tunnel. Zone C showed similar rises regardless of
location.
Figure 17 shows that in Zone A at the end of Tunnel 2 there was a rise of 10.9%
between periods 1 and 2 in the over ground sections compared with a fall of 19.8%
over the tunnel. In Zone B we saw a rise of 3.1% in the over ground sections
compared with a fall of 39.5% over the tunnel. Zone C showed a fall of 2.9% in the
over ground sections compared with a rise of 2.0% over the tunnel.
Figure 16. Values changes Period 1 vs -
All properties Start of Tunnel 2
Figure 17. Values changes Period 1 vs 2
- All properties End of Tunnel 2
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
(0)%
20%
40%
60%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
(0)%
20%
40%
60%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
(0)%
20%
40%
60%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
(0)%
20%
40%
60%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Source for both: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source for both: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact around tunnel portals
Page
27
THE
IMPA
CT A
ROUN
D TU
NNEL
POR
TALS
THE IMPACT ON SALES VOLUMES
From this analysis we conclude sales volumes have weakened at the tunnel portals
(where trains would emerge). While this relationship is only evident in Zone A close
to the portals, it is nonetheless a significant finding.
Figure 18 shows that all tunnel portals In Zone A there was a fall of 12.1% between
periods 1 and 2 at the tunnel entrance compared with a rise of 21.6% over the
tunnel. In contrast, the areas at the tunnel entrance rose in Zones B and C (by
17.7% and 9.2% respectively) compared in the areas adjacent to the tunnels (-7.2%
and 0.6%).
Figure 19 shows changes in sales on the proposed line at the start Tunnel 1. In
Zone A there was a fall of 50% between periods 1 and 2 at the entrance compared
with a rise of 0% over the tunnel. In Zone B we saw a fall of 6.2% in the over
ground sections compared with a fall of 20.3% over the tunnel. Zone C showed a
fall of 7% in the over ground sections compared with a fall of 12% over the tunnel.
Figure 20 shows changes in sales on the proposed line at the end of Tunnel 1. In
Zone A there was a rise of 0% between periods 1 and 2 in the over ground sections
compared with a rise of 5.5% over the tunnel. In Zone B we saw a rise of 35.5% in
the over ground sections compared with a fall of 3.1% over the tunnel. Zone C
showed a fall of 5.5% in the over ground sections compared with a rise of 4.5%
over the tunnel.
Figure 18. Sales volumes Period 1 vs 2 - All properties All tunnel portals
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Tunnel Entrance Over Tunnel Tunnel Entrance Over Tunnel Tunnel Entrance Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact around tunnel portals
Page
28
THE
IMPA
CT A
ROUN
D TU
NNEL
POR
TALS
Figure 19. Sales volume changes Period
1 vs 2 - All properties Start of Tunnel 1
Figure 20. Sales volume changes Period
1 vs 2 - All properties End of Tunnel 1
Figure 21 shows that at the start Tunnel 2, in Zone A there was a rise in volumes of
19.7% over ground compared with a fall of 6.8% over the tunnel. In Zone B we saw
a rise of 38.5% in the over ground sections compared with a fall of 6.7% over the
tunnel. Zone C showed a rise of 18% in the over ground sections compared with a
fall of 3.8% over the tunnel.
Figure 22 shows changes in sales on the proposed line at the end of Tunnel 2. In
Zone A there was a rise of 2% between periods 1 and 2 in the over ground sections
compared with a rise of 22.2% over the tunnel. In Zone B we saw a rise of 8.7% in
the over ground sections compared with a rise of 66% over the tunnel. Zone C
showed a rise of 11.2% in the over ground sections compared with a rise of 26.8%
over the tunnel.
Figure 21. Sales volume changes Period
1 vs 2 - All properties Start of Tunnel 2
Figure 22. Sales volume changes Period
1 vs 2 - All properties End of Tunnel 2
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
(0)%
20%
40%
60%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
(0)%
20%
40%
60%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
(60)%
(40)%
(20)%
(0)%
20%
40%
60%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
(70)%
(50)%
(30)%
(10)%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
Tunnel Entrance
Over Tunnel
A B C
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
The impact around tunnel portals
Page
29
THE
IMPA
CT A
ROUN
D TU
NNEL
POR
TALS
VALUES AND VOLUMES ALONG THE TUNNEL ROUTES
In the first two sections of this report, we considered changes in values and volumes
in overland sections of the report. We also examined the tunnelled sections.
However, in tunnelled sections we did not determine any clear relationships
between proximity to route and housing market activity. This stands to reason as
the housing market should not be affected by the line inside a tunnel, as the
surrounding area shouldn‟t experience noise impacts to the same extent (as if the
tunnel over ground).
For tunnel 1, prices in Zone A fell by 3.4% whereas in Zones B and C they rose by
17.1% and 10.9% respectively (see Fig. 23). Volumes on the other hand rose in
Zone A by 22.4% compared with a rise of 2.4% in zone B and a 1.7% fall in Zone
C (see Fig 25).
In Tunnel 2, prices in Zone A fell 0.7% and by 4.1% in Zone B and risen
significantly by 26.4% in Zone C (see Fig. 24). Volumes in Zone A rose by 7.5%
compared with a fall of 0.4% in zone B and a 2.4% rise in Zone C (see Fig 26).
Figure 23. Values in Period 1 and
Period 2 - All properties (Tunnel 1)
Figure 24. Values in Period 1 and Period
2 - All properties (Tunnel 2)
Figure 25. Sales in Period 1 and Period
2 - All properties (Tunnel 1)
Figure 26. Sales in Period 1 and Period
2 - All properties (Tunnel 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A(T1) Zone B(T1) Zone C(T1)
Average prices P
eriod 1 and Period 2 (£'000)
Cha
nge
Per
iod
1 vs
Per
iod
2 (%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
(30)%
(20)%
(10)%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Zone A(T2) Zone B(T2) Zone C(T2)
Ave
rag
e p
rice
s P
erio
d 1
an
d P
erio
d 2
(£'0
00
)
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A(T1) Zone B(T1) Zone C(T1)
Total sales Period 1 and Period 2 (no.)
Cha
nge
Perio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(%)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
(25)%
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Zone A(T2) Zone B(T2) Zone C(T2)
Total sales Period 1 and P
eriod 2 (no.)
Cha
nge
Per
iod
1 vs
Per
iod
2 (%
)
Period 1 (RHS) Period 2 (RHS) Difference (LHS)
Source for both: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source for both: Land Registry; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Conclusion
Page
30
CONC
LUSI
ON
Conclusion
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Conclusion
Page
31
CONC
LUSI
ON
7
Conclusion
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Conclusion
Page
32
CONC
LUSI
ON
The purpose of this report was to observe property values and transactions levels both pre
and post the announcement of the proposed route of High Speed 2 between London and
Birmingham.
Our principal observation was that both sales volumes and values were generally lower
after the announcement than before near the proposed route.
This was certainly the case when looking at the over-ground route as a whole where sales
values fell in Zone A, rose in zone B and rose further in Zone C (see Figure 1). We observed
a similar pattern for sales volumes
When we considered changes in values for individual property types, we found this pattern
was largely repeated, but with some exceptions. These were generally linked to the small
sample sizes of certain property types in certain area, in particular detached properties in
central London.
In addition, we compared the impact in rural areas versus urban areas. We found that
while rural areas appeared to be affected, this was not the case for urban areas.
Figure 27. Summary of conclusions
Price change in Zone A
Changes in sales volumes in Zone A
Whole overland line 1.3% 4.5%
Whole overland line – urban areas 2.3% 8.0%
Whole overland line – rural areas 4.9% 0.7%
Tunnel portals 9.2% 12.1%
Our research also showed that prices and activity were negatively affected at tunnel portals
– that is where the train would emerge from a tunnel. In contrast there was no such affect
over the tunnel or where the train runs underground. However, given the localised areas
with just a handful of postcode sectors, the sample sizes were very low, which led to volatile
behaviour, so these findings are less reliable.
The results for the tunnel areas were inconclusive. This largely reflects historically low levels
of transactions, which currently characterise the UK property market and makes accurate
analysis difficult. In addition Tunnel 1 runs through areas of prime central London, which
has recovered more quickly from the downturn than areas further out. This area is likely to
have a large number of other factors influencing values and transaction levels.
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 1 - Methodology
Page
33
APPE
NDIX
1 -
MET
HODO
LOGY
DO NOT DEL
APPENDICES
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 1 - Methodology
Page
34
APPE
NDIX
1 -
MET
HODO
LOGY
The purpose of this report was to study the behaviour of housing markets close to the
proposed High Speed 2 rail link between London and Birmingham. In these areas we
studied residential property values and transaction levels before and after the
announcement of the proposals in March 2010.
We did this using Land Registry data which provided the number of transactions and the
average value of each postcode sector (e.g. “B12 5”) in the UK for four periods (two
quarters either side of the announcement of the proposed route.
We then used Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to map the route of the
proposed line between London and Birmingham. We overlaid postcode sector boundaries
on top of the route and removed all areas which were other than three closest postcode
sectors to the line.
We sub divided the remaining areas according to how close they were to the proposed line.
The postcode sectors which the proposed line runs through we called Zone A. We defined
Zone B as the next set of postcode sectors away from the line and Zone C as the next set
still (see Figure 30 below). This allowed us to see whether or not the market close to the
proposed line had been affected differently to areas further away. For more information,
see the appendices.
For more detailed analysis of the nature of the line, we further defined areas where the line
becomes a tunnel (as opposed to being overland). We also defined where the line was
running through more and less densely populated areas, with densely populated areas
being those with more than 5 dwellings per hectare.
From this point the analysis simply compared differences in residential property values and
transactions levels before and after the announcement. This was repeated across a;; of the
geographical sub divisions described above.
Figure 30 –Simplified analysis Zones in reference to the proposed route of HS2
Appendix 1 - Methodology
Zone B
Zone A
Zone C HS2 route
Postcode sectors
Tunnel Tunnel zones
Source: CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 2 – The Route
Page
35
APPE
NDIX
2 –
THE
ROUT
E
The route of the train line was mapped by hand onto CBRE‟s Geographic Information
System. This was done by referencing the following plans, available at:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/pi/highspeedrail/hs2ltd/route/
High Speed Two Preferred Line of Route
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03101
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03102
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03103
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03104
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03105
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03106
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03107
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03108
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03109 - Revised
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03110 - Revised
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03111 - Revised
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03112
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03113
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03114
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03115
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03116
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03117
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03118
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03119
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03121
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03122
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03123
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03124
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03125
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03126
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03127
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03128
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03129
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03130
Key Plan –
HS2-ARP-07-DR-RW-03100
High Speed Two West Midlands Junction
Key Plan –
HS2-ARP-05-DR-RW-15100
HS2-ARP-05-DR-RW-15101
HS2-ARP-05-DR-RW-15102
HS2-ARP-05-DR-RW-15103
HS2-ARP-05-DR-RW-15104
HS2-ARP-05-DR-RW-15105
All Published: 11 March 2010
Appendix 2 – The Route
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 2 – The Route
Page
36
APPE
NDIX
2 –
THE
ROUT
E
Map 1 – Proposed route with positions of tunnels
Map 2 – Proposed route zoomed to Tunnels 1 and 2
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 3 - Tunnels
Page
37
APPE
NDIX
3 -
TUNN
ELS
Map 3 - Start of Tunnel 1 – identifying postcode unit
Map 4 - End of Tunnel 1 – identifying postcode unit
Appendix 3 - Tunnels
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 3 - Tunnels
Page
38
APPE
NDIX
3 -
TUNN
ELS
Map 5 - Start of Tunnel 2 – identifying postcode unit
Map 6 - End of Tunnel 2 – identifying postcode unit (best fit/adjacent)
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 4 – Analysis Zones
Page
39
APPE
NDIX
4 –
ANA
LYSI
S ZO
NES
Use of Postcode Sectors
In this paper we have used postcode sectors as the basic geographical unit for all analysis.
Postcode sectors have been chosen because of their size and compatibility with Land
Registry data. In England the average postcode sector has 2,800 dwellings in it and covers
1900 hectares. This may seem large but each postcode sector has on average only 21.9
sales per quarter, and a sample of 20 is an absolute minimum in property market analysis.
It is beyond the scope of this report to identify which properties are more or less affected by
the proposed railway line. Individual properties will be affected by aspect, height relative to
neighbouring properties and relative position. In this report we assume all properties in
Zone A will be equally affected and do not account for any other factors.
In Zone A, the average size of each constituent postcode sector 1,656 hectares. This means
on average Zone A runs 2.29km either side of the proposed railway line.
Data analysis Zone where line is over ground
Data analysis zones are defined by the position of postcode sectors (e.g. “HP6 5”) relative
to the proposed rail route. There are three zones and they are defined thus:
• Zone A – All postcode sectors the proposed line passes through
• Zone B – All postcode sectors which touch Zone A
• Zone C – All postcode sectors which touch Zone B (Control sample)
The purpose of Zone A is to capture areas closest to the proposed line. Zones B represents
areas likely to be less blighted and C represent a control sample against which we can
compare changes in activity. See map 7.
Data analysis zones where proposed line is a tunnel
In this report we treat analysis zones through a proposed tunnel passes differently. Where
Tunnel 1 runs through a postcode sector, we call it Zone A(T1). Equally where Tunnel 2 runs
through a postcode sector, we call it Zone A(T2). Zones B and C work essentially in the
same for tunnels as they did for the normal railway line. However, where a zone could be
considered either as relating to a tunnel or an over ground section, the latter takes
precedence. See map 8 and 9.
More and less densely populated areas
In this report we have also differentiated between more and less densely populated
postcode sectors. Using census data we established the number of dwellings per hectare in
each postcode sector. We used the national median figure of 5 dwellings per hectare to
separate the sample into more and less densely populated areas. This definition is separate
from the data analysis zones and therefore permits another level of analysis. See map 1.
Appendix 4 – Analysis Zones
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 4 – Analysis Zones
Page
40
APPE
NDIX
4 –
ANA
LYSI
S ZO
NES
Map 7 – Analysis Zones A, B and C along whole proposed line
Map 8 – Analysis Zones A, B and C along tunnelled sections of the proposed line
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 4 – Analysis Zones
Page
41
APPE
NDIX
4 –
ANA
LYSI
S ZO
NES
Map 9 – All of Zone A running through more and less dense areas (tunnels
excluded)
Map 10 – Zone A along tunnelled sections through more and less dense areas.
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
Urban
Rural
Tunnel
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 4 – Analysis Zones
Page
42
APPE
NDIX
4 –
ANA
LYSI
S ZO
NES
Map 11 – Analysis Zones around Tunnel 1 portals
Map 12 – Analysis Zones around Tunnel 2 portals
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
Source: Ordnance Survey; CB Richard Ellis Research
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 5 - Data
Page
43
APPE
NDIX
5 -
DATA
Source
All data in this report comes from HM Land Registry.
Time Span
The original data was split into four quarters like so:
As the High Speed 2 proposals were released in March 2010, we have group together the
first and second quarters into “Period 1” and the third and fourth into “Period 2“. We
therefore can compare between the data before and after the release of the proposals.
Variables
The analysis looks at sales volumes and average prices. The original Land Registry data are
split down further into:
• Detached
• Semi-Detached
• Terraced
• Flat/Maisonette
• Total
Calculations
Changes for prices are calculated by taking the average price for all postcode sectors in
Period 1 and comparing it to Period 2:
Average((Period 2 Prices)- Average(Period 1 Prices)) / Average(Period 1 Prices)
Changes for sales volumes are calculated by taking the sum of transactions for all postcode
sectors in Period 1 and comparing it to Period 2:
Sum((Period 2 transactions)- Sum(Period 1 transactions)) / Sum(Period 1 transactions)
Appendix 5 - Data
Oct - Dec
2009
Jul - Sep
2010
Jan - Mar
2010
Apr - Jun
2010
Period 1 Period 2
Publication of proposals
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 6 – Glossary of Terms
Page
44
APPE
NDIX
6 –
GLO
SSAR
Y OF
TERM
S
Period 1 October 2009 to March 2010
Period 2 April 2010 to September 2010
Zone A Postcode sectors the proposed line passes through
Zone B All postcode sectors which touch Zone A
Zone C All postcode sectors which touch Zone B
Tunnel 1 NW1 7PS to W3 6XA (see map 2)
Tunnel 2 WD3 9XW to HP7 0EJ (see map 2)
Sales volumes Sum of Land Registry transactions
Values Average of Land Registry values
More densely populated areas Areas with more than 5 dwellings per hectare
Less densely populated areas Areas with fewer than 5 dwellings per hectare
Appendix 6 – Glossary of Terms
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 7 – National and Regional analysis
Page
45
APPE
NDIX
7 –
NAT
IONA
L AND
REG
IONA
L ANA
LYSI
S
Figure 28. Changes in sales values before and after the announcement of the
proposed High Speed 2 route in all of England and Wales by house type
Figure 29. Changes in sales volumes before and after the announcement of the
proposed High Speed 2 route in all of England and Wales by house type
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Flat/Mais Terraced Semi-Det Detached
Ch
an
ge P
1 v
s P
2
(8)%
(6)%
(4)%
(2)%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Flat/Mais Terraced Semi-Det Detached
Ch
an
ge P
1 v
s P
2
Appendix 7 – National and Regional analysis
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 7 – National and Regional analysis
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L ANA
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(15.0)%
(10.0)%
(5.0)%
0%
5.0%
10.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(20.0)%
(15.0)%
(10.0)%
(5.0)%
0%
5.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(2.0)%
0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(30.0)%
(20.0)%
(10.0)%
0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
Figure 30. Changes in values before and after the announcement of the proposed
High Speed 2 route in the counties through which the line runs by house type
Flats Terraced
Semi-detached Detached
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
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L ANA
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0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
Figure 31. Changes in values before and after the announcement of the proposed
High Speed 2 route in the regions through which the line runs by house type
Flats Terraced
Semi-detached Detached
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
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L AND
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IONA
L ANA
LYSI
S
(30.0)%
(25.0)%
(20.0)%
(15.0)%
(10.0)%
(5.0)%
0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(18.0)%
(16.0)%
(14.0)%
(12.0)%
(10.0)%
(8.0)%
(6.0)%
(4.0)%
(2.0)%
0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(16.0)%
(14.0)%
(12.0)%
(10.0)%
(8.0)%
(6.0)%
(4.0)%
(2.0)%
0%
2.0%
4.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
(20.0)%
(15.0)%
(10.0)%
(5.0)%
0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
Figure 32. Changes in volumes before and after the announcement of the proposed
High Speed 2 route in the counties through which the line runs by house type
Flats Terraced
Semi-detached Detached
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
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IONA
L ANA
LYSI
S
Figure 33. Changes in volumes before and after the announcement of the proposed
High Speed 2 route in the regions through which the line runs by house type
Flats Terraced
Semi-detached Detached
(9.0)%
(8.0)%
(7.0)%
(6.0)%
(5.0)%
(4.0)%
(3.0)%
(2.0)%
(1.0)%
0%
1.0%
2.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Ch
an
ge P
erio
d 1
vs P
erio
d 2
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It is beyond the scope of the report to distinguish “high end” properties as we only classify them in terms of their Land Registry property types. The report only considers house type and proximity to the route and does not account for:
House type-specific seasonal supply/demand variations
Issues affecting local markets
Issues affecting demand for particular types of property
Macro-trends in mortgage lending
Inconsistent sample sizes owing to local sales patterns
It should also be noted that the smallest geographical boundaries are relatively large and it
is possible that (as the route skirts around towns) zones B and C may be more „urban‟ than
zone A.
Appendix 7 – National and Regional analysis Appendix 8 – Study Limitations
CB RICHARD ELLIS | HIGH SPEED 2 – BLIGHT STUDY
Appendix 8 – S
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S
Appendix 8 – S