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oed that message, saying that nowis not the time to relax.

“I want every American to beprepared for the hard days that lieahead,” said Mr. Trump, who an-swered questions for more thantwo hours and predicted thatthere would be “light at the end ofthe tunnel,” but warned that“we’re going to go through a verytough two weeks.”

Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx showedcharts indicating that coronaviruscases in New York and New Jer-sey had risen far higher than inother parts of the country, a factthat they said gave them hope thatthe overall number of deathsmight be lower if people in the restof the states followed the guide-lines for at least the next month.

But outbreaks in New Orleans,Detroit and other cities are grow-ing quickly, and experts say it isunclear whether social distancingmeasures can stop them from ris-ing even more in the next fewweeks. Recent estimates in Flor-ida suggest that it may be enter-ing a phase of exponential growth.

Dr. Fauci, the director of the Na-tional Institute of Allergy and In-fectious Diseases, stressed thateven with those efforts, it was pos-sible that nearly a quarter-millionpeople in the United States couldlose their lives.

“As sobering a number as thatis, we should be prepared for it,”he said.

Mr. Trump displayed none ofthe carefree dismissiveness thatcharacterized his reaction to the

WASHINGTON — The top gov-ernment scientists battling the co-ronavirus estimated on Tuesdaythat the deadly pathogen couldkill 100,000 to 240,000 Americansas it ravages the country despitesocial distancing measures thathave closed schools, banned largegatherings, limited travel andforced people to stay in theirhomes.

Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the na-tion’s leading infectious diseaseexpert, and Dr. Deborah L. Birx,who is coordinating the coro-navirus response, displayed thatgrim projection at a White Housebriefing, calling it “our real num-ber” but pledging to do everythingpossible to reduce it.

As dire as those predictions are,Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx said thenumber of deaths could be muchhigher if Americans did not followthe strict guidelines vital to keep-ing the virus from spreading. TheWhite House models they dis-played showed that more than 2.2million people could have died inthe United States if nothing hadbeen done.

Those conclusions were basedon a continuing analysis of casesin the United States and generallymatched those from similar mod-els created by public health re-searchers around the globe. Thetwo public health officials urgedpeople to take the restrictions se-riously, and a subdued PresidentTrump, appearing with them, ech-

GRIM TOLL PROJECTED, EVEN WITH DISTANCINGTrump Warns of ‘a Very Tough Two Weeks’

as Scientists Describe a Sobering Outlook

This article is by Michael D.Shear, Michael Crowley and JamesGlanz.

Continued on Page A12

Some overwhelmed mortuaries are slow to collect bodies, making hospitals like Brooklyn Hospital store them in refrigerated trailers.DAVE SANDERS FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

As many as 25 percent of peopleinfected with the new coronavirusmay not show symptoms, the di-rector of the Centers for DiseaseControl and Prevention warns — astartlingly high number that com-plicates efforts to predict the pan-demic’s course and strategies tomitigate its spread.

In particular, the high level ofsymptom-free cases is leading theC.D.C. to consider broadening itsguidelines on who should wearmasks.

“This helps explain how rapidlythis virus continues to spreadacross the country,” the director,Dr. Robert Redfield, told NationalPublic Radio in an interviewbroadcast on Tuesday.

The agency has repeatedly saidthat ordinary citizens do not needto wear masks unless they arefeeling sick. But with the new dataon people who may be infectedwithout ever feeling sick, or whoare transmitting the virus for acouple of days before feeling ill,Mr. Redfield said that such guid-ance was “being critically re-re-viewed.”

Researchers do not know pre-cisely how many people are in-fected without feeling ill, or ifsome of them are simplypresymptomatic. But since the

Silent InfectionsHobbling BattleTo Thwart Virus

By APOORVA MANDAVILLI

Asymptomatic spread has ledthe C.D.C. to reassess masks.

FABIO FRUSTACI/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCK

Continued on Page A13

WASHINGTON — PresidentTrump and congressional Repub-licans spent the last three yearsfighting to cut anti-poverty pro-grams and expand work rules, sotheir support for emergency relief— especially in the form of di-rectly sending people checks, usu-ally a nonstarter in American poli-tics — is a significant reversal oftheir effort to shrink the safetynet.

It has also intensified a long-running debate about whetherthat safety net adequately pro-tects the needy in ordinary timesas well.

“The crisis has made the needfor benefits much more visibleand the people who receive themseem much more sympathetic,”said Jane Waldfogel, a professorat the Columbia University Schoolof Social Work. “Progressives willargue for making many of thesechanges permanent, and conser-vatives will worry about the costsand potential burden on employ-ers, but this has profoundlychanged the playing field.”

Those who support more gov-ernment help for low-income fam-ilies say the crisis has revealedholes in the safety net that theneedy have long understood. It isa patchwork system, largely builtfor good times, and offers littlecash aid to people not working. Itpushes the poor to find jobs, andsupports many who do, but offerslittle protection for those withoutthem.

Most rich countries have uni-versal health insurance and pro-vide a minimum cash income forfamilies with children. The UnitedStates has neither, as well ashigher rates of child poverty.

And to a degree that casual ob-servers may not understand, theTrump administration has triedboth to shrink safety net pro-grams and make eligibility forthem dependent on having a job orjoining a work program.

As Safety NetIs Reinforced,

Debate SwellsBy JASON DePARLE

Continued on Page A11

Justin Penn, a Pittsburgh voterwho calls himself politically inde-pendent, favored Joseph R. BidenJr. in a matchup with PresidentTrump until recently. The presi-dent’s performance during the co-ronavirus outbreak has Mr. Pennreconsidering.

“I think he’s handled it prettywell,” he said of the president,

whose daily White House appear-ances Mr. Penn catches on Face-book after returning from his jobas a bank security guard. “I thinkhe’s tried to keep people calm,” hesaid. “I know some people don’tthink he’s taking it seriously, but Ithink he’s doing the best with theinformation he had.”

Although Mr. Penn, 40, said hedid not vote for Mr. Trump, hisopinion of the president has im-proved recently and he very wellmight back him for a second term.

Across the country, the coro-navirus has sickened more than150,000 people, cost millions theirjobs and tanked the stock market.Yet the president’s approval rat-ings are as high as they have everbeen, despite what most agree to

be his slow performance dealingwith the crisis, as well as hisrecord of falsehoods about the vi-rus, his propensity to push ideasand treatments that contradict ex-pert advice and his habit of lash-ing out at governors on the frontlines.

While public perceptions arefluid in a crisis, a notable twist inpolling at this point is that inde-pendents are driving Mr. Trump’sbump in approval, and some in-

During Crisis, Trump’s Approval Gets Boost From Crucial VotersBy TRIP GABRIELand LISA LERER

Continued on Page A22

Even a Small Shift inthe Middle Is Big

The cars arrived at the foodbank in southern Dallas in astream — a minivan, a ChevroletTahoe, a sedan with a busted win-dow, a Jaguar of unclear vintage.Inside the vehicles sat people whocould scarcely believe theyneeded to be there.

There was a landscaper, a highschool administrator, a collegestudent, and Dalen Lacy, a ware-house worker and 7-Eleven clerk.

Like 70 percent of those whocame to Crossroads CommunityServices one day last week, Mr.Lacy had never been there. Butwhen the coronavirus pandemicdrove the economy off a cliff, Mr.Lacy, 27 and a father of two, losthis warehouse job, and his hoursat 7-Eleven were slashed.

“I’ve never had to actually dothis,” Mr. Lacy said after a glovedpantry worker hefted a box of foodinto the trunk of the car he wasriding in with two neighbors. “ButI’ve got to do what I’ve got to dofor my kids.”

By the hundreds of thousands,Americans are asking for help forthe first time, from nail techni-cians in Los Angeles to airportworkers in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.,and from bartenders in Phoenix toformer reality show contestants inMinnesota. Biting back shameand wondering guiltily about oth-ers in more dire straits, they areapplying for unemployment, turn-ing to GoFundMe, asking formoney on Instagram, quietly ac-cepting handouts from equallystrapped co-workers, and show-ing up in vast numbers at foodbanks, which in turn are strug-gling to meet soaring demand asvolunteers, many of them retir-

Newly Needy,And AbashedTo Seek Help

By CARA BUCKLEY

Continued on Page A10

In China, international flightshave been cut back so severelythat Chinese students abroadwonder when they will be able toget home. In Singapore, recentlyreturned citizens must share theirphones’ location data with the au-thorities each day to prove theyare sticking to government-or-dered quarantines.

In Taiwan, a man who had trav-eled to Southeast Asia was fined$33,000 for sneaking out to a clubwhen he was supposed to be onlockdown in his home. In HongKong, a 13-year-old girl, who wasspotted out at a restaurant wear-ing a tracking bracelet to monitorthose in quarantine, was followed,filmed and subsequently shamedonline.

Across Asia, countries and cit-ies that seemed to have broughtthe coronavirus epidemic under

control are suddenly tighteningtheir borders and imposing strict-er containment measures, fearfulabout a wave of new infections im-ported from elsewhere.

The moves portend a worri-some sign for the United States,Europe and the rest of the worldstill battling a surging outbreak:Any country’s success with con-tainment could be tenuous, andthe world could remain on a kindof indefinite lockdown.

Even when the number of newcases starts to fall, travel barriersand bans in many places may per-sist until a vaccine or treatment is

found. The risk otherwise is thatthe infection could be reintro-duced inside their borders, espe-cially given the prevalence ofasymptomatic people who mightunknowingly carry the virus withthem.

Following a recent uptick incases tied to international trav-elers, China, Hong Kong, Singa-pore and Taiwan barred foreign-ers from entering altogether in re-cent days. Japan has barred vis-itors from most of Europe, and isconsidering denying entry to trav-elers from countries including theUnited States. South Korea im-posed stricter controls, requiringincoming foreigners to quarantinein government facilities for 14days upon arrival.

“Countries have really beenstruggling to implement their owndomestic solutions, and domesticsolutions are insufficient for a

New Controls in Asia Signal Fears of 2nd WaveBy MOTOKO RICH

The Thai authorities sprayed travelers with disinfectant at a checkpoint in Phuket on Tuesday.ADAM DEAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Tightening Borders andWorries of Indefinite

Lockdown

Continued on Page A8

For decades, a writer used a teenager’simage in pursuit of adolescents. Now,Francesca Gee gets to speak. PAGE A20

INTERNATIONAL A18-20

A Victim Silenced No MoreCelebrating Passover, whether it’s alone,online or with those in your home, feelsmore essential than ever. PAGE D1

FOOD D1-8

An Essential Seder Table

President Jair Bolsonaro has fueled agun rights movement that previouslyhad little popular support. PAGE A18

Gun Ownership Soars in Brazil

A campaign races to find ways to raisemoney amid fears that the pandemiccould choke off donations. PAGE A21

NATIONAL A21-25

Biden Faces Cash GapSteven Mnuchin, the Treasury chief, andJerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, facetheir biggest challenge: keeping theeconomy afloat in a pandemic. PAGE B1

BUSINESS B1-8

Crisis Forges a Partnership

Natural-gas companies revived Pennsyl-vania a decade ago, but as they strugglenow, local economies may suffer. PAGE B1

Fracking’s New Risk

There’s no traffic in Los Angeles, justlong lines at drive-throughs. But anxietyis everywhere, Tejal Rao writes. PAGE D6

Empty Freeways, Full Jitters

The sidewalk is a stage of strangers. Ourdance critic asks: Will social distancingbring us back to our bodies? PAGE C1

ARTS C1-6

The Choreography of Space

Can’t go outside? The Nintendo Switchgame Animal Crossing offers a candy-colored substitute for real life. PAGE C1

A Cartoony Island of Calm

Thomas L. Friedman PAGE A28

EDITORIAL, OP-ED A28-29

A Netflix documentary on a roadsidezookeeper and his plot to kill an animalactivist has renewed interest in an oldercase involving the activist. PAGE A24

Ready for ‘Tiger King II’?

William B. Helmreich, who discoveredoffbeat corners of New York by walkingits 121,000 blocks, was 74. PAGE A27

OBITUARIES A26-27

Sociologist of the SidewalksFIFA is drawing up plans to tap its cashreserve and create an emergency fundto support a struggling sport. PAGE B9

SPORTSWEDNESDAY B9-11

Riding to Rescue of Soccer

VOL. CLXIX . . . No. 58,650 © 2020 The New York Times Company NEW YORK, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1, 2020

Late EditionToday, some sunshine, seasonable,high 54. Tonight, mainly clear, low40. Tomorrow, some sunshine willgive way to clouds, windy, high 56.Weather map appears on Page B12.

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