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Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010

Glacier changes and related high mountain

hazards in Tajikistan Martin Mergili

Chris Kopf, Jean F. Schneider

Institute of Applied Geology, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria

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Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 2

Content

Content of the presentation

> 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan

> 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends

> 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

> 4 Conclusions

> 5 Risk mitigation strategies

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1 Glaciers in Tajikistan

Glaciers of Central Asia

Dataset Description Source

WGI World Glacier Inventory point dataset, one observation

location, surface area, topography

NSIDC Boulder, WGMS Zurich

nsidc.org/data/glacier_inventory/

GLIMS Global Land Ice

Measurements from Space

polygon and point datasets

geometric information

NSIDC Boulder, Univ. of Arizona

www.glims.org

Pamir

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Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010

Ismoili Somoni Peak

7495 m

Korzhenevskaya Peak

7105 m

4

1 Glaciers in Tajikistan

Academy of Sciences Range

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1 Glaciers in Tajikistan

Fedchenko Glacier

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1 Glaciers in Tajikistan

Jirgital

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2 Observed and predicted climatic trends

Precipitation and discharge

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Observed and predicted climatic

trends

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2 Observed and predicted climatic trends

Example of temperature trend

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2 Observed and predicted climatic trends

Climate projections

> Mean annual temperature +1.8 – 2.9°C until 2050 for

Tajikistan (National Action Plan for Climate Change

Mitigation)

> Mean annual temperature +3.7°C until 2100 for

Central Asia (4th IPCC Report 2007)

> More pronounced warming in high-altitude areas

(4th IPCC Report 2007)

> High uncertainties and regional differences in the

predicted trends of precipitation, but in general

increase in winter and decrease in the remaining

seasons (4th IPCC Report 2007)

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Glacier fluctuations and related

hazards

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Glacier mass balances

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Case study: Southern Pamir

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Glacial lakes in the S. Pamir

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Dashtdara

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Lake outburst floods

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

The Dasht event (2002) before

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

The Dasht event (2002) after

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Varshedzdara and Andarabadj

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6 Needs for further research

Hazard indication map

Outburst hazard

0 20 40 60 80

Negligible

Low

Moderate

Medium

High

Very high

Extremely high

Number of lakes

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6 Needs for further research

Hazard indication map

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Case study: Northern Pamir

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Transalai Range

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3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Transalai

Range

2002

2007

Dzerzhinskogo

Glacier

Little Saukdara

Glacier

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Essentials

4 Conclusions

> The response of glacial environments to climate

change may be diverse

> Environmental changes may occur rapidly and have

significant consequences for the population

> There is lack of knowledge on high-altitude

meteorological conditions and trends

> Consequently, the knowledge on the high mountain

environment of Tajikistan is insufficient

> But: people depend on this environment

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Needs for further research

6 Conclusions

> (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and

hydrological stations

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Needs for further research

4 Conclusions

> (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and

hydrological stations

> Coordinated efforts of consistent multi-temporal mapping

of glaciers from satellite imagery, based on the existing

datasets

> Focussed in-depth research regarding ice volumes, mass

balances, permafrost, glacial lakes etc.

> Continuous monitoring of hazardous and potentially

hazardous situations in order to react adequately in case

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5 Risk mitigation strategies

Hazard and Risk

Assessment Risk

Mitigation Recommendations

Monitoring

From research to mitigation

Awareness-raising

Preparedness-building

Emergency warning

Technical measures

Involvement of local agencies and population

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5 Risk mitigation strategies

Capacity-building is essential!

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Handing over

Responsibility

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5 Risk mitigation strategies

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Discussion