Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan [Martin Mergili]

IAG

Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010

Glacier changes and related high mountain

hazards in Tajikistan Martin Mergili

Chris Kopf, Jean F. Schneider

Institute of Applied Geology, BOKU University, Vienna, Austria

IAG

Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan Global Change and the World’s Mountains, Perth, Sept. 26 to 30, 2010 2

Content

Content of the presentation

> 1 Glaciers in Tajikistan

> 2 Observed and predicted climatic trends

> 3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

> 4 Conclusions

> 5 Risk mitigation strategies

IAG


1 Glaciers in Tajikistan

Glaciers of Central Asia

Dataset Description Source

WGI World Glacier Inventory point dataset, one observation

location, surface area, topography

NSIDC Boulder, WGMS Zurich

nsidc.org/data/glacier_inventory/

GLIMS Global Land Ice

Measurements from Space

polygon and point datasets

geometric information

NSIDC Boulder, Univ. of Arizona

www.glims.org

Pamir

IAG


Ismoili Somoni Peak

7495 m

Korzhenevskaya Peak

7105 m

4


Academy of Sciences Range

IAG



Fedchenko Glacier

IAG



Jirgital

IAG


2 Observed and predicted climatic trends

Precipitation and discharge

IAG


Observed and predicted climatic

trends

IAG



Example of temperature trend

IAG



Climate projections

> Mean annual temperature +1.8 – 2.9°C until 2050 for

Tajikistan (National Action Plan for Climate Change

Mitigation)

> Mean annual temperature +3.7°C until 2100 for

Central Asia (4th IPCC Report 2007)

> More pronounced warming in high-altitude areas

(4th IPCC Report 2007)

> High uncertainties and regional differences in the

predicted trends of precipitation, but in general

increase in winter and decrease in the remaining

seasons (4th IPCC Report 2007)

IAG


Glacier fluctuations and related

hazards

IAG


3 Glacier fluctuations and related hazards

Glacier mass balances

IAG



Case study: Southern Pamir

IAG



Glacial lakes in the S. Pamir

IAG



Dashtdara

IAG



Lake outburst floods

IAG



The Dasht event (2002) before

IAG



The Dasht event (2002) after

IAG



Varshedzdara and Andarabadj

IAG


6 Needs for further research

Hazard indication map

Outburst hazard

0 20 40 60 80

Negligible

Low

Moderate

Medium

High

Very high

Extremely high

Number of lakes

IAG


6 Needs for further research

Hazard indication map

IAG



Case study: Northern Pamir

IAG



Transalai Range

IAG



Transalai

Range

2002

2007

Dzerzhinskogo

Glacier

Little Saukdara

Glacier

IAG


Essentials

4 Conclusions

> The response of glacial environments to climate

change may be diverse

> Environmental changes may occur rapidly and have

significant consequences for the population

> There is lack of knowledge on high-altitude

meteorological conditions and trends

> Consequently, the knowledge on the high mountain

environment of Tajikistan is insufficient

> But: people depend on this environment

IAG


Needs for further research

6 Conclusions

> (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and

hydrological stations

IAG


Needs for further research

4 Conclusions

> (Re)establishment of high-altitude meteorological and

hydrological stations

> Coordinated efforts of consistent multi-temporal mapping

of glaciers from satellite imagery, based on the existing

datasets

> Focussed in-depth research regarding ice volumes, mass

balances, permafrost, glacial lakes etc.

> Continuous monitoring of hazardous and potentially

hazardous situations in order to react adequately in case

IAG


5 Risk mitigation strategies

Hazard and Risk

Assessment Risk

Mitigation Recommendations

Monitoring

From research to mitigation

Awareness-raising

Preparedness-building

Emergency warning

Technical measures

Involvement of local agencies and population

IAG



Capacity-building is essential!

IAG


Handing over

Responsibility

30


IAG


Discussion

Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan [Martin Mergili]

Education

Transcript of Glacier changes and related high mountain hazards in Tajikistan [Martin Mergili]