GIS in Weather and SocietyGIS in Weather and Society

Olga WilhelmiInstitute for the Study of Society and Environment

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

GIS basic concepts

How GIS can be used in weather / society research and applications Current applications Emerging developments / potential use

Example Front Range Flash Flood Project

Breakout group and class discussions

GIS Science and Technology GIS Science and Technology

GIS Science University Consortium for geographic Information Science

(http://www.ucgis.org/) Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science

(http://www.csiss.org/) Weather, Climate and GIS: NCAR GIS Initiative

(http://www.gis.ucar.edu)

Industry ESRI, MapInfo, Informix, PCRaster. More than 3000 vendors

Standards Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Standards, specifications, middleware

People

ProceduresHardware

Data

Geographic Information SystemsGeographic Information Systems

Computer Mapping

Spatial Analysis

Database Management

Software

Analyze

Display

Output

Capture

Store

Query

Image courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com)

Organizing Spatial Data in a GISOrganizing Spatial Data in a GIS

Geology

Population

Hydrology

Topography

Weather

Atmospheric Conditions

The “G” in GIS = GeographicThe “G” in GIS = Geographic

Capturing DataCapturing Data

Methods for inputting geographic (X,Y) and tabular (attribute) data

Vast collection of geographically referenced data already exists in digital format Resources on the Web

Satellite imagery, photography

Coordinates (X, Y) – weather station locations

Paper Maps

Storing DataStoring Data

Vector formats Discrete representation of reality

(points, lines, polygons)

Raster formats Use square cells to model reality

QueryQuery

Identifying specific features

Identifying and selecting features based on certain condition

AnalysisAnalysis

Proximity

Overlay

Network

Spatial Statistics

DisplayDisplay

Maps

Graphs

Reports

OutputOutput

Paper Maps

Images

Internet

Current use of GISCurrent use of GIS

Mapping: visualization of information

Data integration: integrating environmental and social data in a single framework allows to address interdisciplinary questions on weather-society interactions

Data analysis: exploration of spatial patterns, relationships, networks; spatial statistics

Data distribution: disseminating weather and climate science to broader audiences

Images courtesy of ESRI (http://www.esri.com)

From Static to DynamicFrom Static to Dynamic

Ongoing and emerging researchOngoing and emerging research

Spatial Interoperability Data formats Compatible Tools

Multidimensional GIS (temporal, NetCDF)

Scale Upscaling Downscaling

Interpolation methods

Standards

Investigating coupled systems

Impact assessment of earth system changes

Meteorological ObservationsMeteorological Observations

Radar mosaic and mobile surface temperature observations

Outputs from GCMs Outputs from GCMs

Vulnerability of agricultural production and High Plains aquifer’s depleting water resources to predicted climate change in the Great Plains

http://www.gisClimateChange.org

Impacts of permafrost thawing on Impacts of permafrost thawing on infrastructure: Siberiainfrastructure: Siberia

Potential applications for netCDF in Potential applications for netCDF in GISGIS

Mesoscale weather predictions

Impacts of extreme weather events

Verification of model outputs

Decision support and management

Integration of weather forecast with socio-economic data

WRF forecast of Katrina in a GISWRF forecast of Katrina in a GIS

Case StudyCase Study

A Flash Flood Risk Assessment of the A Flash Flood Risk Assessment of the Colorado Front Range Region Using GISColorado Front Range Region Using GIS

2005 SOARS project Braxton Edwards, University of Oklahoma (SOARS

protégé) Olga Wilhelmi and Rebecca Morss, NCAR (SOARS

mentors)

Problem Problem

Yearly average of $4.5 Billion damage and 98 deaths between 1983 and 2003

Damage due to floods continues to rise as the population and property at risk increases

Accurate risk assessments can aid in determining appropriate flood control, mitigation, and response strategies

Study Area - Colorado Front RangeStudy Area - Colorado Front Range

Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment

Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability

Exposure takes into account the environmental conditions or hazard

Vulnerability is a characteristic of a person or a group to cope with, resist and recover from a hazard

4. Methods

What is risk?

Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability

Use the risk equation to identify primary exposure and vulnerability factors contributing to the risk of flooding in the Front Range. Use GIS for data integration, analysis, and mapping of the flash flood risk zones in the Colorado Front Range region, and integrate the data with hydrological and statistical precipitation models.

ProximityProbabilityFrequencyIntensityDuration

Preparedness

Coping

Recovery

4. Methods

What is risk?

Risk = Exposure * Vulnerability

Use the risk equation to identify primary exposure and vulnerability factors contributing to the risk of flooding in the Front Range. Use GIS for data integration, analysis, and mapping of the flash flood risk zones in the Colorado Front Range region, and integrate the data with hydrological and statistical precipitation models.

ProximityProbabilityFrequencyIntensityDuration

Preparedness

Coping

Recovery

Demographic vulnerability

weighting

Total Vulnerability

Vulnerability AssessmentVulnerability Assessment

65_upHispanic

FemaleRenter

classification

Critical FacilitiesIdentify Vulnerability Factors

1 hour

3 hour

6 hour

Exposure

Exposure assessmentExposure assessment

Radar rainfall

FFG

Basin Average FFG

Watershed boundaries

Basin average rainfall

Watersheds

Total Risk

Fort Collins1,3, and 6 Hour Rain

Accumulation

Denver6 Hour Rain Accumulation

Risk=Exposure*VulnerabilityRisk=Exposure*Vulnerability

Flood Exposure VulnerabilityUrban areas

Case 1 Case 2

Breakout Group Discussions

Vulnerability assessment: Develop your own weighting system that adds to 100. These are

your layers:• population density• renters• females• female households with at least one child• Hispanic households• children younger than 5 years old• children between 5 and 17 years old• population over 65 years old

Discuss results in class

Mapping and visualization

GIS in weather and society

GIS is a useful tool to study problems when people matter

GIS is a useful tool for integrative research

Ongoing research in Atmo-GIS offers new potentials