Post on 03-Jun-2020
Futurism, Innovation & WiFiNetworks & Comms is too Important to Leave to the Telcos
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
WiFi Now, The Hague, November 2017
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
n Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991n Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecastingn Cross-silo, contrarian, independentn Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
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Network Tech, Policy & Business Models
Communications Apps & Services Telco-Futurism
Key trends for the next 10-15 years
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Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI
New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks
The carrier / mobile industry has its own trends / squeeze…
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Domain-Specificity Democratisation
VerticalsIndoor
IoT & AIOptimisations
WiFi & LPWAMulteFire & CBRSSmall cells & Mesh
Arbitrage
Multiple delivery models for connectivity
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Service Owned / Private Amenity Comm-
unity Embed
… and there will be new & unexpected models too
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Multiple dimensions for future wireless networks
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bpdbps
Gbps
10m
Non-critical
Function-critical
90%99%
99.9%99.99%Long-life
battery
Rechargeable battery
Mains electricity
Generator
Harvested
Power
3DCoverage
Bandwidth
Kbps
ImportanceBusiness-
criticalSafety-critical
Range
<1m
Mbps
And also:Security model
MobilityIntegration
Bi-directionalProtocols etc
1km>10km
100m
4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite
Managed spectrumWi-Fi
Monocultures give efficiency… but also fragility
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Antifragile: “Things that gain from disorder”
AI & Edge-Computing will have huge effects on 5G & Wi-Fi
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Combinations of multiple networks are inevitable
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Including a beta of “aggregation mode”
Don’t believe all the “seamless” offload / carrier WiFi hype…
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Also: Don’t forget developers as another
important constituency…
… many apps behave differently on WiFi & cellular. OS’s expose
connection APIs
… and don’t believe all the 5G hype, either…
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Enhanced Mobile
Broadband
Low-Latency
IoTMassive
M2M / IoT
Enhanced Mobile
BroadbandLow-
Latency IoT
Massive M2M / IoT
Fixed Access(pre-5G)
20202017-8 2019-20 2020-22
5G Use-Cases & Probable Timeline
Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030
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Services Capabilities
Competition Substitution
Harmonisation Diversity
Managed Intelligent
Ubiquitous Tailored
Mono-platforms & ecosystem diversity
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Monolithic platforms are fragile to external trends
Dedicated spectrum enables limited business models
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National MNO licences
B2C Prepay & Post-Paid
SubscriptionsIoT Embedded Wholesale, eg
MVNO
Non-MNO licences
Government eg Public Safety
Few corps, eg utilities, rail
… but completely unlicensed spectrum has limitations too
“National” policies & licenses may not always work
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Power station
Car factory
Airport
Oil refinery
Port
Offshore windfarm
Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)
What are the options for managed, industrial-grade
wireless for industrial use?
Ideally, it needs licensed / controlled spectrum… but
not MNO-type services
Government & cellular groups becoming aware (slowly)
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Beyond MNOs: Wireless “service providers” of the future?
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*
Blockchain options at many network-industry intersections
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Data Integrity
Micropayments
Identity
Smart contracts
etc
etc
etc
etc
NetworkRoam & w/sale
Billing / OSS WiFi IoT
ServicesSpectrum
etcetc
What might 2030 mean for innovation, WiFi & spectrum?
n Network “monoculture” vs “diversity”n Industrial networks IoT bring unique requirementsn Privately-managed wireless (licensed-band WiFi?)n Revisit the definition of “services”, telcos & SPsn Spectrum-sharing becomes mainstreamn AI will have profound & unexpected impactsn Many tech pathways for any “outcome”
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WiFi has a critical role – but it needs advocacy & vision
www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedean
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