Dr Patrick Dixon

Chairman Global Change Ltd

Transforming Lifestyles Within a Generation

Ending the Tobacco Epidemic

Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of

15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most

influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)

Future of Anti-Smoking campaigns - Winning the

argument, health education, & cancer prevention - for

northwest England health promotions (2009)

500 videos of keynotes

www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon

Over 4 million views

Dixon’s Futurist Website

www.globalchange.com/

14 million unique visitors.

Wild Cards: Risk Management

Low probability, high impact events

£16 billion a year UK market

1 trillion cigarettes traded a year

between nations - $400 billion

1 in 10 cigarettes is smuggled

£1.6bn turnover for crime gangs

Tobacco industry needs

1,600 more teenagers

and 400 more adults

to become addicted

every week to maintain

sales lost by deaths

and people giving up.

Tobacco industry is

suffering because early

teenage smoking has

halved and total numbers

smokers fallen by 20% in

decade

Tobacco industry is

suffering because early

teenage smoking has

halved and total numbers

smokers fallen by 20% in

decade

industry is

suffering because early

teenage smoking has

halved and total numbers

smokers fallen by 20% in

decade

Future is about

Future is about Emotion

Imagine a new drug arrives in UK – which

seems almost as addictive as heroin. More

than 10% teenagers hooked by 18 years. Each

will die an average of 10 years early

75% of smokers want to quit – few other

industries would cope with so many

dissatisfied customers

…..one of main sources of cigarettes for

non-addict teenagers is OTHER older

smokers – most of whom want to QUIT

We are celebrities to our own children

Power of example to harm or kill

Power of Example

or how to kill your own children

And harm your grandchildren….

Hidden costs to society 8 days more sick leave a year than non-smokers

£2.5 billion sick leave and lost productivity

Link to Poverty and Poor Education

Low income, gender and ethnicity

Incidence of smoking decreases with income

Fewer start

More stop

Big differences in different communities and gender

5% Bangladeshi women

25% of Irish women

40% of Bangladeshi men

We know anti-smoking action works

We know what works Smoking among 11-15 year olds halved in 12 years to 2006

2 million

fewer adult

smokers in

England in 10

years

20% drop

Step by step outlawing of “normal” adult

behavior is almost without precedent

Rapid Change - Future 2003/4 - Most tobacco advertising and

sponsorship banned

2007 - Minimum age to sell raised to 18 years

2008 – Stronger picture health warnings on

packets

2008 – Power to ban cigarette sales for a year if

persistent selling to under 18 year olds

Robots are usual source of tobacco for 10% of

those children aged 11–15 who said they smoked.

Remove legal right to sell alcohol as

well as tobacco if they repeatedly sell

under-age tobacco

Why delay?

Health Act 2009 requires tobacco products to be removed

from display.

Large retailers from October 2011

Small retailers from October 2013 – why not 2012?

New ways to break the habit

Professional help eg

NHS makes success 4

more likely

But at what cost per

person ‘cured’ ?

Irony: habit itself costs

average £1,800 yet

many smokers may not

be prepared to spend

same to get free

Prices lower than 1973 in real terms

Compelling economics of action

If all targets met

NHS net savings by 2015

$2bn total NHS saving by 2020

£14bn savings to wider society by 2020

But what would it really cost to achieve this?

Inertia and

Momentum

Takes a decade to

touch a nation

Two decades to

change a generation

And it will change

Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of

15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most

influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)

Future of Anti-Smoking campaigns - Winning the

argument, health education, & cancer prevention - for

northwest England health promotions (2009)

500 videos of keynotes

www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon

Over 4 million views

Dixon’s Futurist Website

www.globalchange.com/

14 million unique visitors.