Post on 01-Jan-2016
description
Forecast Verification
Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India
Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013
Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11
member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final
forecasted onset date.Y axis on each panel is in
mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for
850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset
date and also written at the top of each panel
Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013
NCEP/TRMMAnalysis
Wind (850hPa)and R/F
Verification
CFSv2 GFSbc
F/C from16May IC
F/C from16May IC
NCEP/TRMMAnalysis
Wind (850hPa)and R/F
Verification
CFSv2 GFSbc
F/C from26May IC
F/C from26May IC
Spatial pentad mean pattern
Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 1-5 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 16May
P3-lead, IC 21May
P2-lead, IC 26May
GFSbcCFS
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 1-5 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 16May
P3-lead, IC 21May
P2-lead, IC 26May
GFSbcCFS
Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 6-10 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013
P2-lead, IC 31May
P4-lead, IC 21May
P3-lead, IC 26May
GFSbcCFS
P1-lead, IC 5Jun
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 6-10 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013
P1-lead, IC 5June
P4-lead, IC 21May
P3-lead, IC 26May
P2-lead, IC 31May
GFSbcCFS
Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 11-15 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013
GFSbcCFS
P1-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 26May
P3-lead, IC 31May
P2-lead, IC 5June
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 11-15 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 26May
P3-lead, IC 31May
P2-lead, IC 5June
GFSbcCFS
Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 16-20 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013
GFSbcCFS
P2-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 31May
P3-lead, IC 5June
P1-lead, IC 15June
P2-lead, IC 10June
P4-lead, IC 31May
P3-lead, IC 5June
P1-lead, IC 15June
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 16-20 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013
GFSbcCFS
P3-lead, IC 10June
PP4-lead, IC 5June
P1-lead, IC 20June
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 21-25 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013
P2-lead, IC 15June
P3-lead, IC 10June
PP4-lead, IC 5June
P1-lead, IC 20June
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 21-25 June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013
P2-lead, IC 15June
P4-lead, IC 10June
P2-lead, IC 20June
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 26-30June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013
P3-lead, IC 15June
P1-lead, IC 25June
P4-lead, IC 10June
P2-lead, IC 20June
Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 26-30June, 2013
Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013
P3-lead, IC 15June
P1-lead, IC 25June
CFS-GFS Forecast VerificationOver Homogenous RegionsMZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI
CFS, CEI
GFSbc, CEI
CFS, MZI
GFSbc, MZI
CFS, NEI
GFSbc, NEI
CFS, NWI
GFSbc, NWI
CFS, SPI
GFSbc, SPI
16 May IC 21 May IC
MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS
26 May IC 31 May IC
MISO F/C verification For 25 Days
5 Jun IC
MISO F/C verification For 25 Days
10 Jun IC(OBS is for 20 days only)