Forecast Verification

Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India

Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013

Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11

member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final

forecasted onset date.Y axis on each panel is in

mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for

850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset

date and also written at the top of each panel

Onset declared by IMD: 1st June 2013

NCEP/TRMMAnalysis

Wind (850hPa)and R/F

Verification

CFSv2 GFSbc

F/C from16May IC

F/C from16May IC

NCEP/TRMMAnalysis

Wind (850hPa)and R/F

Verification

CFSv2 GFSbc

F/C from26May IC

F/C from26May IC

Spatial pentad mean pattern

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 1-5 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013

P1-lead, IC 31May

P4-lead, IC 16May

P3-lead, IC 21May

P2-lead, IC 26May

GFSbcCFS

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 1-5 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 1-5 June, 2013

P1-lead, IC 31May

P4-lead, IC 16May

P3-lead, IC 21May

P2-lead, IC 26May

GFSbcCFS

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 6-10 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013

P2-lead, IC 31May

P4-lead, IC 21May

P3-lead, IC 26May

GFSbcCFS

P1-lead, IC 5Jun

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 6-10 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 6-10 June, 2013

P1-lead, IC 5June

P4-lead, IC 21May

P3-lead, IC 26May

P2-lead, IC 31May

GFSbcCFS

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 11-15 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013

GFSbcCFS

P1-lead, IC 10June

P4-lead, IC 26May

P3-lead, IC 31May

P2-lead, IC 5June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 11-15 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 11-15 June, 2013 P1-lead, IC 10June

P4-lead, IC 26May

P3-lead, IC 31May

P2-lead, IC 5June

GFSbcCFS

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day)For period 16-20 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013

GFSbcCFS

P2-lead, IC 10June

P4-lead, IC 31May

P3-lead, IC 5June

P1-lead, IC 15June

P2-lead, IC 10June

P4-lead, IC 31May

P3-lead, IC 5June

P1-lead, IC 15June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 16-20 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 16-20 June, 2013

GFSbcCFS

P3-lead, IC 10June

PP4-lead, IC 5June

P1-lead, IC 20June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 21-25 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013

P2-lead, IC 15June

P3-lead, IC 10June

PP4-lead, IC 5June

P1-lead, IC 20June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 21-25 June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 21-25 June, 2013

P2-lead, IC 15June

P4-lead, IC 10June

P2-lead, IC 20June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 26-30June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013

P3-lead, IC 15June

P1-lead, IC 25June

P4-lead, IC 10June

P2-lead, IC 20June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day)For period 26-30June, 2013

Forecast valid For period 26-30 June, 2013

P3-lead, IC 15June

P1-lead, IC 25June

CFS-GFS Forecast VerificationOver Homogenous RegionsMZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

CFS, CEI

GFSbc, CEI

CFS, MZI

GFSbc, MZI

CFS, NEI

GFSbc, NEI

CFS, NWI

GFSbc, NWI

CFS, SPI

GFSbc, SPI

16 May IC 21 May IC

MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS

26 May IC 31 May IC

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days

5 Jun IC

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days

10 Jun IC(OBS is for 20 days only)