Post on 06-Jun-2020
Fleetmarket Trends 2018
International Fleet Meeting Geneva
07.03.2018 Marc A. Odinius – Managing Director - Dataforce GmbH
▪ Will the year start like the the previous year ended?
▪ SUV no longer a trend?!
▪ Diesel = Fleet – Fleet = Diesel?!
▪ What if Szenarios:
– … Diesel never exisited
– … what about NOx
– … the CO2 target of 95g in 2021 will be met
▪ Will the marketshare of fleet rise to 100%
Agenda
180180
1888
188.000
18.800 8.800new beginning
progress
successstriving forward
18luck
The PC Market 2017Passenger Car Registrations EU-15
2,6% 2,1%
5,8%
8,9%
True Fleets Private Rentals (ShortTerm)
Dealer &Manufacturer
Development of new registrations
28%
45%
10%
17%
Distribution of new registrations
EU15: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
True Fleets in the EU-7Passenger Car Registrations (January – December) in thousand
3rd record
value in a row
0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Very good start to 2018Passenger Car fleet registrations January
Germany
Number of brands covering 80% of the fleet marketGermany, France, Italy and Switzerland in 2017
Italy
France
Switzerland
13
9 8
16
Domestic brand
Foreign brand
Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Vans
SUV
Compact Car
Middle-Class
Small Cars
Mini Car
Higher Middle-Class
Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SUV
Compact Car
Middle-Class
Fiat Tipo
Hyundai Ioniq
Infiniti Q30
Compact Cars
Alfa Romeo Giulia
Jaguar XE
Renault Talisman
VW Arteon
Middle Class
BMW 2 Series
Gran Tourer
Vans
Growing model diversity of SUVsModels with significant volume in 2017 with market introduction after 2014
Alfa Romeo Stelvio
Audi Q2
Fiat 500X
Ford Edge
Honda HR-V
Hyundai Tucson
Jaguar F-Pace
Kia Niro
LR Discovery Sport
Mercedes GLC Coupé
Mercedes GLE Coupé
SUV
Maserati Levante
Mazda CX-3
Opel Crossland X
Renault Kadjar
Seat Ateca
Skoda Karoq
Skoda Kodiaq
Suzuki Vitara
Ssangyong Tivoli XLV
Tesla Model X
Toyota C-HR
Comparison SUVs with Small, Compact Cars and Middle-ClassNumber of models with more than 1,200 registrations per year in True Fleets
29
23
26
3535
2225
24
20
78
127
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Middle-Class
Compact Car
Small Car
SUV
Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
SUV Small
SUV Compact
SUV Medium
SUV Large
Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Vans
SUV
Compact Car
Middle-Class
Small Cars
Mini Car
Higher Middle-Class
Diesel = Fleet – Fleet = Diesel
Development of Diesel share since 2004
53%45%
55%
44%
47%
36%
46%
32%
66%
65%
74%
60%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Total Market Private True Fleets
Passenger Car Registrations EU-15
Development of Diesel share in detail since 2016
68%
55%
38%
28%
49%
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18
True Fleets Private Total Market
Passenger Car Registrations EU-15
-10 %Points
-10 %Points
-13 %Points
Dieselanalysis 2017
would citybans on diesel play a role in your purchase decision?
do you fear a loss in residual value when purchasing diesel cars?
do you plan to reduce the number of diesel cars in your fleet?
yes no don`t know
CourtNOx
SpeedSurvey: What changes do you expect from the court rule?154 fleet managers
75%68%
42%
22%
7%
Driving bans Less diesel regs Faster renewals Ecofriendly tecs Public transport
Welche Änderungen erwarten Sie durch dieses Urteil?
Similarities & Differences in the Fueltype DistributionFuel Type shares of Passenger Car registrations EU-15
34%
60%
True Fleets
Petrol
Diesel
Electric
Hybrid
CNG/LPG 60%
32%
Private Market
Growth of AlternativePassenger Car Registrations – Alternative Fuel Types Jan-Dec 2016/2017
-12%
96%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Europe is not homogenousPassenger Car Registrations – Fuel Types in True Fleet Jan-Dec 2017
85%
45%
9%17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Petrol Diesel Alternative
Europe is not homogenousLCV Registrations – Fuel Types in True Fleet Jan-Dec 2017
63%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Petrol Diesel Alternative
Share of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles around the fleet globeTrue Fleet registrations in 2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Hybrid
Electric
Hybrid and Electric Vehicles around the fleet globeTrue Fleet registrations in 2017 (in thousand)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Hybrid
Electric
1
What range is sufficient for you to change to an electric vehicle ?
1) upto 200km
2) 201-300km
3) 301-400km
4) 401-500km
5) 501 +km
6) Not at all 13%
what if…
diesel never existed
CO2-Emissions for the German Passenger Car Market
OwnertypeFueltype
Models Mileage
Volume
CO2-Emissions for the German Passenger Car Market
𝑪𝑶𝟐 =
𝑶,𝑴,𝑭
𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭
𝑪𝑶𝟐 =
𝑶,𝑴,𝑭
𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭 ∗ 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆𝑶,𝑴,𝑭 ∗ ∅𝑪𝑶𝟐𝑶,𝑴,𝑭 ∗ ∅𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝑭
𝑪𝑶𝟐 =
𝑶,𝑴,𝑭
𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭 ∗ 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆𝑶,𝑴,𝑭
𝑪𝑶𝟐 =
𝑶,𝑴,𝑭
𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭 ∗ 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆𝑶,𝑴,𝑭 ∗ ∅𝑪𝑶𝟐𝑶𝑴,𝑭
O=Ownertype M= Vehicle Segment/Model F= Fueltype
If all diesel in parc were petrolCO2 emmissions from passenger cars in Germany (Million tons per year)
Petrol
AFT
DieselOld diesel to
old petrol
115,4127,3
current fueltypemix only petrol and AFT
if diesel did cars would not exist
in Germany alone we would emit
more CO2
+11.900.000 tons
If all diesel in parc were petrolNOx emmissions from passenger cars in Germany (1000-tons per year)
Petrol
Diesel
281,5
154,2 147,1
current fueltypemix Old Diesel to old petrol Old diesel to Euro 6d
Old diesel to
old petrol
Old diesel to
Euro 6d
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Private
True Fleets
What happens to NOx if we do nothing?NOx emmissions from passenger cars in Germany (1000tons per year)
what if…
…the CO2 target of 95g 2021
will be met
▪ EU Average 95 g/km NEDC
▪ Penalty: 95 Euro per gram and registered car
▪ OEM target depending on average vehicle weight
2021 CO2 targets and current values for Germany
FCA91,1
91,7
Renault-Nissan92,1
92,6 Ford93
94,3 VW96,3
100,3 Daimler100,7
103,5
JLR132
95
137Hyundai-Kia
121117
PSA116
128
Toyota104
122
BMW124
132 Volvo126
166
80
100
120
140
160
180 CO2-target 2021
Current CO2
Source: Own calculations, PA Consulting
Germany
• About 70% diesel share in fleet
• Decent share of medium/executive
cars/SUVs
123
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dealer &ManufacturerPrivate
RAC
True Fleets
Germany – Average CO2 by market segmentsLong way to 95!
-28
Spain
• Almost 80% diesel share in fleet
• Compact Vehicles (Cars, SUVs, Utilities)
dominate the market
114
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dealer &ManufacturerPrivate
RAC
True Fleets
Spain – Average CO2 by market segmentsMarket Segments are close, no reduction in 2017
-19
The Netherlands
• Painfull CO2 taxes
• Many Compact/Small/Middle Class Cars
• Few SUVs
108
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Dealer &ManufacturerPrivate
RAC
True Fleets
The Netherlands – Average CO2 by market segmentsThe True Fleet Market has the lowest CO2
-13
Hypothesis:
1.CO2 efficiency gains
-2% per year (PHEV -5%)
CO2 reduction by efficiency gain
124
114114
105
108
100
95
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE ES NL
Hypothesis:
1.CO2 efficiency gains
-2% per year (PHEV -5%)
2.1. & Decline in diesel is
redistributed
proportionally to other
fueltypes (-10%)
What happens on diesel decline?
95
124
118
114
105108
100
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE ES NL
DE_Diesel ES_Diesel NL_Diesel
Hypothesis:
1.CO2 efficiency gains
-2% per year (PHEV -5%)
2.1. & Decline in diesel is
redistributed
proportionally to other
fueltypes (-10%)
3.1. & 2. & SUV continue to
grow by 7% every year
What happens on SUV rise?
95
124
119
114
107108
101
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE_Diesel ES_Diesel NL_Diesel
DE_SUV ES_SUV NL_SUV
– Diesel, + SUV with 2021 fuel type shares
124
119
114
107108
101
95
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE ES NL
2,4
11,7
3,6
2,2
1,7
0,4
1,4
1,2
4,4
DE
ES
NL
Hybrid PHEV BEV
Σ 6.1%
Σ 14.6%
Σ 8.5%
~17% Electrification
95
124
114114
102
108
97
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE_SUV ES_SUV NL_SUV
DE_LOW_E ES_LOW_E NL_LOW_E
6,1
15,7
7,6
4,1
3,7
2,4
3,4
3,2
6,4
DE
ES
NL
Hybrid PHEV BEV
Σ 13.7%
Σ 22.6%
Σ 16.4%
~22% Electrification
95
124
111
114
99
108
94
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE_LOW_E ES_LOW_E NL_LOW_E
DE_MOD_E ES_MOD_E NL_MOD_E
8,0
17,7
9,6
6,0
5,7
4,4
4,4
4,2
7,4
DE
ES
NL
Hybrid PHEV BEV
Σ 18.4%
Σ 27.5%
Σ 21.4%
~31% Electrification
95
124
106
114
94
108
89
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE_MOD_E ES_MOD_E NL_MOD_E
DE_HIG_E ES_HIG_E NL_HIG_E
13,6
23,7
15,5
7,8
7,7
6,4
5,4
5,2
8,4
DE
ES
NL
Hybrid PHEV BEV
Σ 26.8%
Σ 36.5%
Σ 30.2%
~45% Electrification
95
124
95
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
DE_HIG_E DE_VHI_E
24,8
1,2
11,6
1,1
8,4
1,1
DE
NOW
Hybrid PHEV BEV
Σ 44.7%
Σ 3.4%
in order to reach the 95g we need to be electrified
Outlook
will the marketshare of fleet rise to 100%
Good sentiment of consumers and companies in EU-7 countries
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18
Business Climate
Consumer Sentiment
The economic development supports current dynamicsGrowth in %
Fixed Investments
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Personal Disposable Income-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
GDP
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Consumer Price
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
What we expect for 2018Passenger Car fleet registrations in EU-7 in thousand
4th record
value in a row
121
127
87
94
113
10399
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Relevance of True Fleets keeps growing
True Fleets Private Rentals (Short Term) Dealerships/Manufacturer
Development of market segments in EU-7 (2011 = 100)
to ensure mobility in the future the powertrain is not
the only aspect we have to take into consideration
Fleetmarket Trends 2018
International Fleet Meeting Geneva
07.03.2018 Marc A. Odinius – Managing Director - Dataforce GmbH
+491635938000 – marc.odinius@dataforce.de