Fleetmarket Trends 2018

International Fleet Meeting Geneva

07.03.2018 Marc A. Odinius – Managing Director - Dataforce GmbH

▪ Will the year start like the the previous year ended?

▪ SUV no longer a trend?!

▪ Diesel = Fleet – Fleet = Diesel?!

▪ What if Szenarios:

– … Diesel never exisited

– … what about NOx

– … the CO2 target of 95g in 2021 will be met

▪ Will the marketshare of fleet rise to 100%

Agenda

180180

1888

188.000

18.800 8.800new beginning

progress

successstriving forward

18luck

The PC Market 2017Passenger Car Registrations EU-15

2,6% 2,1%

5,8%

8,9%

True Fleets Private Rentals (ShortTerm)

Dealer &Manufacturer

Development of new registrations

28%

45%

10%

17%

Distribution of new registrations

EU15: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,

Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

True Fleets in the EU-7Passenger Car Registrations (January – December) in thousand

3rd record

value in a row

0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Very good start to 2018Passenger Car fleet registrations January

Germany

Number of brands covering 80% of the fleet marketGermany, France, Italy and Switzerland in 2017

Italy

France

Switzerland

13

9 8

16

Domestic brand

Foreign brand

SUV no longer a trend?!

Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Vans

SUV

Compact Car

Middle-Class

Small Cars

Mini Car

Higher Middle-Class

Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SUV

Compact Car

Middle-Class

Fiat Tipo

Hyundai Ioniq

Infiniti Q30

Compact Cars

Alfa Romeo Giulia

Jaguar XE

Renault Talisman

VW Arteon

Middle Class

BMW 2 Series

Gran Tourer

Vans

Growing model diversity of SUVsModels with significant volume in 2017 with market introduction after 2014

Alfa Romeo Stelvio

Audi Q2

Fiat 500X

Ford Edge

Honda HR-V

Hyundai Tucson

Jaguar F-Pace

Kia Niro

LR Discovery Sport

Mercedes GLC Coupé

Mercedes GLE Coupé

SUV

Maserati Levante

Mazda CX-3

Opel Crossland X

Renault Kadjar

Seat Ateca

Skoda Karoq

Skoda Kodiaq

Suzuki Vitara

Ssangyong Tivoli XLV

Tesla Model X

Toyota C-HR

Comparison SUVs with Small, Compact Cars and Middle-ClassNumber of models with more than 1,200 registrations per year in True Fleets

29

23

26

3535

2225

24

20

78

127

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Middle-Class

Compact Car

Small Car

SUV

Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SUV Small

SUV Compact

SUV Medium

SUV Large

Development of Vehicle Segements in EU-7 True Fleets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Vans

SUV

Compact Car

Middle-Class

Small Cars

Mini Car

Higher Middle-Class

Diesel = Fleet – Fleet = Diesel

Development of Diesel share since 2004

53%45%

55%

44%

47%

36%

46%

32%

66%

65%

74%

60%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Total Market Private True Fleets

Passenger Car Registrations EU-15

Development of Diesel share in detail since 2016

68%

55%

38%

28%

49%

39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18

True Fleets Private Total Market

Passenger Car Registrations EU-15

-10 %Points

-10 %Points

-13 %Points

Dieselanalysis 2017

would citybans on diesel play a role in your purchase decision?

do you fear a loss in residual value when purchasing diesel cars?

do you plan to reduce the number of diesel cars in your fleet?

yes no don`t know

CourtNOx

SpeedSurvey: What changes do you expect from the court rule?154 fleet managers

75%68%

42%

22%

7%

Driving bans Less diesel regs Faster renewals Ecofriendly tecs Public transport

Welche Änderungen erwarten Sie durch dieses Urteil?

Similarities & Differences in the Fueltype DistributionFuel Type shares of Passenger Car registrations EU-15

34%

60%

True Fleets

Petrol

Diesel

Electric

Hybrid

CNG/LPG 60%

32%

Private Market

Growth of AlternativePassenger Car Registrations – Alternative Fuel Types Jan-Dec 2016/2017

-12%

96%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Europe is not homogenousPassenger Car Registrations – Fuel Types in True Fleet Jan-Dec 2017

85%

45%

9%17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Petrol Diesel Alternative

Europe is not homogenousLCV Registrations – Fuel Types in True Fleet Jan-Dec 2017

63%

5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Petrol Diesel Alternative

Share of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles around the fleet globeTrue Fleet registrations in 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Hybrid

Electric

Hybrid and Electric Vehicles around the fleet globeTrue Fleet registrations in 2017 (in thousand)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Hybrid

Electric

1

What range is sufficient for you to change to an electric vehicle ?

1) upto 200km

2) 201-300km

3) 301-400km

4) 401-500km

5) 501 +km

6) Not at all 13%

what if…

diesel never existed

CO2-Emissions for the German Passenger Car Market

OwnertypeFueltype

Models Mileage

Volume

CO2-Emissions for the German Passenger Car Market

𝑪𝑶𝟐 =

𝑶,𝑴,𝑭

𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭

𝑪𝑶𝟐 =

𝑶,𝑴,𝑭

𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭 ∗ 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆𝑶,𝑴,𝑭 ∗ ∅𝑪𝑶𝟐𝑶,𝑴,𝑭 ∗ ∅𝑪𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 𝑭

𝑪𝑶𝟐 =

𝑶,𝑴,𝑭

𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭 ∗ 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆𝑶,𝑴,𝑭

𝑪𝑶𝟐 =

𝑶,𝑴,𝑭

𝑴𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒈𝒆𝑶,𝑭 ∗ 𝑽𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒎𝒆𝑶,𝑴,𝑭 ∗ ∅𝑪𝑶𝟐𝑶𝑴,𝑭

O=Ownertype M= Vehicle Segment/Model F= Fueltype

If all diesel in parc were petrolCO2 emmissions from passenger cars in Germany (Million tons per year)

Petrol

AFT

DieselOld diesel to

old petrol

115,4127,3

current fueltypemix only petrol and AFT

if diesel did cars would not exist

in Germany alone we would emit

more CO2

+11.900.000 tons

If all diesel in parc were petrolNOx emmissions from passenger cars in Germany (1000-tons per year)

Petrol

Diesel

281,5

154,2 147,1

current fueltypemix Old Diesel to old petrol Old diesel to Euro 6d

Old diesel to

old petrol

Old diesel to

Euro 6d

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Private

True Fleets

What happens to NOx if we do nothing?NOx emmissions from passenger cars in Germany (1000tons per year)

what if…

…the CO2 target of 95g 2021

will be met

▪ EU Average 95 g/km NEDC

▪ Penalty: 95 Euro per gram and registered car

▪ OEM target depending on average vehicle weight

2021 CO2 targets and current values for Germany

FCA91,1

91,7

Renault-Nissan92,1

92,6 Ford93

94,3 VW96,3

100,3 Daimler100,7

103,5

JLR132

95

137Hyundai-Kia

121117

PSA116

128

Toyota104

122

BMW124

132 Volvo126

166

80

100

120

140

160

180 CO2-target 2021

Current CO2

Source: Own calculations, PA Consulting

Germany

• About 70% diesel share in fleet

• Decent share of medium/executive

cars/SUVs

123

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Dealer &ManufacturerPrivate

RAC

True Fleets

Germany – Average CO2 by market segmentsLong way to 95!

-28

Spain

• Almost 80% diesel share in fleet

• Compact Vehicles (Cars, SUVs, Utilities)

dominate the market

114

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Dealer &ManufacturerPrivate

RAC

True Fleets

Spain – Average CO2 by market segmentsMarket Segments are close, no reduction in 2017

-19

The Netherlands

• Painfull CO2 taxes

• Many Compact/Small/Middle Class Cars

• Few SUVs

108

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Dealer &ManufacturerPrivate

RAC

True Fleets

The Netherlands – Average CO2 by market segmentsThe True Fleet Market has the lowest CO2

-13

Hypothesis:

1.CO2 efficiency gains

-2% per year (PHEV -5%)

CO2 reduction by efficiency gain

124

114114

105

108

100

95

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE ES NL

Hypothesis:

1.CO2 efficiency gains

-2% per year (PHEV -5%)

2.1. & Decline in diesel is

redistributed

proportionally to other

fueltypes (-10%)

What happens on diesel decline?

95

124

118

114

105108

100

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE ES NL

DE_Diesel ES_Diesel NL_Diesel

Hypothesis:

1.CO2 efficiency gains

-2% per year (PHEV -5%)

2.1. & Decline in diesel is

redistributed

proportionally to other

fueltypes (-10%)

3.1. & 2. & SUV continue to

grow by 7% every year

What happens on SUV rise?

95

124

119

114

107108

101

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE_Diesel ES_Diesel NL_Diesel

DE_SUV ES_SUV NL_SUV

– Diesel, + SUV with 2021 fuel type shares

124

119

114

107108

101

95

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE ES NL

2,4

11,7

3,6

2,2

1,7

0,4

1,4

1,2

4,4

DE

ES

NL

Hybrid PHEV BEV

Σ 6.1%

Σ 14.6%

Σ 8.5%

~17% Electrification

95

124

114114

102

108

97

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE_SUV ES_SUV NL_SUV

DE_LOW_E ES_LOW_E NL_LOW_E

6,1

15,7

7,6

4,1

3,7

2,4

3,4

3,2

6,4

DE

ES

NL

Hybrid PHEV BEV

Σ 13.7%

Σ 22.6%

Σ 16.4%

~22% Electrification

95

124

111

114

99

108

94

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE_LOW_E ES_LOW_E NL_LOW_E

DE_MOD_E ES_MOD_E NL_MOD_E

8,0

17,7

9,6

6,0

5,7

4,4

4,4

4,2

7,4

DE

ES

NL

Hybrid PHEV BEV

Σ 18.4%

Σ 27.5%

Σ 21.4%

~31% Electrification

95

124

106

114

94

108

89

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE_MOD_E ES_MOD_E NL_MOD_E

DE_HIG_E ES_HIG_E NL_HIG_E

13,6

23,7

15,5

7,8

7,7

6,4

5,4

5,2

8,4

DE

ES

NL

Hybrid PHEV BEV

Σ 26.8%

Σ 36.5%

Σ 30.2%

~45% Electrification

95

124

95

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

DE_HIG_E DE_VHI_E

24,8

1,2

11,6

1,1

8,4

1,1

DE

NOW

Hybrid PHEV BEV

Σ 44.7%

Σ 3.4%

in order to reach the 95g we need to be electrified

Outlook

will the marketshare of fleet rise to 100%

Good sentiment of consumers and companies in EU-7 countries

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 14 Jan 16 Jan 18

Business Climate

Consumer Sentiment

The economic development supports current dynamicsGrowth in %

Fixed Investments

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Personal Disposable Income-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

GDP

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Consumer Price

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

What we expect for 2018Passenger Car fleet registrations in EU-7 in thousand

4th record

value in a row

121

127

87

94

113

10399

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Relevance of True Fleets keeps growing

True Fleets Private Rentals (Short Term) Dealerships/Manufacturer

Development of market segments in EU-7 (2011 = 100)

to ensure mobility in the future the powertrain is not

the only aspect we have to take into consideration

Fleetmarket Trends 2018

International Fleet Meeting Geneva

07.03.2018 Marc A. Odinius – Managing Director - Dataforce GmbH

+491635938000 – marc.odinius@dataforce.de