Post on 11-Dec-2015
Middletown City School District
Five-Year Forecast PresentationKelley Thorpe, Treasurer
Presented May 5, 2014
May 2014 Five-Year Forecast UPDATE
• Still missing some critical and necessary information
• Pieces of the puzzle – Negotiations and programmatic changes
• Forecast is designed to be a fluid document that can be modified with changes in the economic environment
• Does not represent the entire financial picture – only considers the General Fund
Forecast Assumptions
• Revenues: – This forecast assumes small operating revenue
increase for FY15; but not beyond– Increase from ODE is planned– Decrease in property values and real estate taxes
Forecast Assumptions
• Expenditures:– This forecast assumes a slight decrease in
expenses• All budget managers given a 2% reduction for FY15• Increase in severance due to retirements (STRS
Changes) • Have Included a 12% increase for health insurance for
FY15 and 15% increase for outlying years
Revenue Details
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenues
General Property Tax (Real Estate)
27,586,034
27,406,695
27,456,695
27,561,158
27,763,566
Tangible Personal Property Tax
(0)
0
(0)
(0)
0
Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid
25,792,965
27,158,516
27,158,516
27,158,516
27,158,516
Restricted State Grants-in-Aid
4,131,791
4,131,791
4,131,791
4,131,791
4,131,791
Property Tax Allocation
8,109,964
7,900,136
7,750,136
7,612,203
7,486,437
All Other Revenues
3,932,332
1,532,332
1,532,332
1,532,332
1,532,332
Total Revenues
69,553,086
68,129,469
68,029,469
67,995,999
68,072,642
Revenue Details
40%
37%
6%
12%
6%
Operating Revenues
General Property Tax (Real Estate)Unrestricted State Grants-in-AidRestricted State Grants-in-AidProperty Tax AllocationAll Other Revenues
Expenditure Details Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Expenditures
Personal Services
29,197,574
29,400,568
28,824,070
28,896,130
28,968,370
Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits
11,544,685
11,324,410
12,051,189
13,221,135
14,622,915
Purchased Services
23,841,580
23,742,989
24,338,409
24,792,918
25,256,518
Supplies and Materials
1,176,343
1,352,816
1,393,400
1,435,202
1,478,258
Capital Outlay
1,600,000
-
-
-
-
Principal-HB 264 Loans
160,580
210,082
214,802
219,750
229,939
Interest and Fiscal Charges
77,395
84,323
75,407
66,262
56,802
Other Objects
705,227
691,122
698,034
705,014
712,064
Total Expenditures
68,303,384
66,806,310
67,595,311
69,336,412
71,324,867
Expenditure Details
43%
17%
35%
2%
2%
0%
1%
Operating Expenditures
Personal ServicesEmployees' Retirement/In-surance BenefitsPurchased ServicesSupplies and MaterialsCapital OutlayDebt Service:Other Objects
Comparison to October
Oct FY14 May FY14 Difference Reason
General Property Tax (Real Estate) 27,592,794 27,586,034 (6,760)
Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid 29,674,192 25,792,965 (3,881,227) Split with RestrictedRestricted State Grants-in-Aid 150,000 4,131,791 3,981,791
Property Tax Allocation 8,314,033 8,109,964 (204,069)
All Other Revenues 1,532,332 1,468,332 (64,000) Without Borrowing Included
Total Revenues 67,263,351 67,089,086 (174,265)
-
Personal Services 28,997,574 29,197,574 200,000 More retirees than predicted
Retirement/Insurance Benefits 11,670,361 11,544,685 (125,676)
Purchased Services 22,716,580 23,841,580 1,125,000 More students to charter/community schools
Supplies and Materials 1,016,870 1,176,343 159,473
Capital Outlay 1,600,000 1,600,000 -
Debt Service: 219,701 237,975 18,274
Other Objects 705,227 705,227 -
Total Expenses 66,926,313 68,303,384 1,377,071
Cash Balance 2,760,258 2,072,921 (687,337)
Bottom Line
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cash Balance 2,072,921 2,696,080 2,430,238 389,825 (3,562,400)
Important Puzzle Pieces:1. In negotiations with MTA; no increases to base salary included in
this forecast2. Tomorrow’s election; if fail – will need to increase expenses for
maintenance/repairs3. Programmatic changes – know we need to do something
different with alternative education due to Union Day closing – but decisions have not yet been finalized
Questions