Post on 01-May-2020
Fish Production Estimates & Trends 2012-2013
Ragnar Nystoyl Ragnar Tveteras
1
2
Scope of Analysis
• Focus on interna3onally traded species: • Typically imported to USA, Europe & Japan.
• Produc3on forecasts for 2012 for all chosen species: • But for some species only major producer countries/regions.
• Global produc3on forecast for 2013 almost all species.
3
Finfish Species Included in Analysis • Tilapia • Salmon & Trout
• Atlan;c salmon • Coho salmon • Trout
• Ca?ish • Pangasius • Channel ca?ish
• Seabass & Bream • Fla?ishes
• Flounders • Halibut • Turbot
• Barramundi • Cobia • Atlan;c cod • Bluefin tuna
4
Mussel Species Included in Analysis
• Mediterranean -‐ My#lus galloprovincialis
• Blue mussel -‐ My#lus edulis
• Cholga mussel -‐ Aulacomya ater • Green mussel -‐ Perna viridis
Tilapia
6
Tilapia Global Aquaculture Produc3on
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 500
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
1990
19
91
1992
19
93
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
2012
E
2013
E
2014
E
Real Price (USD/KG) 1000 Metric tonnes
Sources: 1990-‐2010: FAO; 2011-‐2014: Kevin Fitzsimmons ; Prices US import frozen fillet: NMFS. Note: Prices are January-‐December averages, except for 2012 (January-‐August average)
Tilapia Produc3on by Country
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000
China
Egypt
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
Brazil
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Colombia
2013
2012
2011
7 Average of es3mates from several sources.
Tilapia Produc3on Es3mates For China
0 500000 1000000 1500000
2011
2012
2013
Anonymous2 Kevin Fitzsimmons Liping Liu
8
Tilapia Produc3on Es3mates For Egypt
0 200000 400000 600000 800000
2011
2012
2013
Anonymous3 Kevin Fitzsimmons Anonymous2 Anonymous1
9
10
Tilapia U.S. Import Volume & Real Import Price for Frozen Fillets
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Real import price (USD/kg)
Import volume (Metric tonnes)
Import volume all tilapia products , all year
Import volume all tilapia products, Jan-Aug
Price frozen fillet, all year
Price frozen fillet, Jan-Aug
Source: Fisheries Sta3s3cs Division of the Na3onal Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)CALIBRI
Salmonids
PICTURE HERE!
12
Atlan3c & Coho Salmon & Rainbow Trout Total Produc3on
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
Metric tonnes
Large rainbow trout Coho salmon Atlan3c salmon
Sources: FAO, Kontali
13
Atlan3c Salmon Produc3on and EU15 real import price fresh gubed from Norway
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
EU real import price (EUR/kg)
Produc3on in metric tonnes
Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSEC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices 1991-‐2011 are annual averages. Price in 2012 is January-‐August average.
14
Farmed Atlan3c Salmon Produc3on
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Norway Chile UK Canada Faroe Islands
Australia Ireland USA
Metric
Ton
nes (WFE)
2011 2012E 2013E
Source: Kontali
15
Coho Salmon Total Produc3on and Real Export Price
on Chilean Coho Frozen Round
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000 1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
Price in Real U
SD per Kilo
Prod
uc3o
n in M
etric
Ton
nes
Produc;on Real price
Sources: FAO , Kontali NSEC
Coho Salmon Farmed Produc3on
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
Chile Japan Others
Metric Tonnes
2010/2011
2011/2012E
2012/2013E
16 Source: Kontali
17
Rainbow Trout Total Ocean Farmed Produc3on and Chilean frozen USD/kg (blue) and Norwegian fresh EUR/kg (red) real export prices
Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSEC. Note: Prices are annual averages except 2012 (January-‐August average).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Real export p
rice
Metric
tonn
es
18
Rainbow Trout Produc3on
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Chile Norway Finland Russia Australia Others
Metric
Ton
nes (WFE)
2011 2012E 2013E
Source: Kontali
Pangasius
Pangasius Produc3on in selected countries
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E
Metric
Ton
nes
Others
India
Indonesia
Vietnam
20 Sources: Kontali
Pangasius Produc3on by country
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Vietnam Indonesia India Other
1000 M
etric
Ton
nes
2010
2011
2012
2013
21 Sources: Kontali
22
Pangasius, Vietnam Es3mates From Two Sources
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
2011
2012
2013
2014
Produc3on in 1000 MT
Kontali
Anonymous1
23
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Real export p
rice (USD
/kg)
1000 M
etric
tonn
es
Sources: FAO (1997-‐2009), Kontali and VASEP (2010), Kontali and anonymous (2012-‐2013)
Pangasius Produc3on in Vietnam
24
Pangasius Vietnam Export Volume & Average Price
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Average price (USD/kg) Export volume (1000 Metric tonnes)
Volume Real price
Source: FAO, Vietnam Associa3on of Seafood Exporters & Producers (VASEP)
25
Pangasius Rela3onship between produc3on and export es3mates
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Ra3o
Produ
c3on
/ Export v
olum
e
1000 M
etric
tonn
es
Produc3on Export volume
Sources: Vietnam Associa3on of Seafood Exporters & Producers (VASEP), Kontali, FAO/Globefish, Anonymous.
26
Channel Caeish Total Global Produc3on and Real Price U.S.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0 50000
100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000
Price (USD/kg) Metric tonnes
Source: FAO Sources: FAO, Kontali, USDA/NASS (prices). Note: Prices 1986-‐2011 are annual averages, price in 2012 is Jan.-‐Sep. average.
27 Source: FAO
Channel Caeish Produc3on by Country
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Metric Tonnes
Others
China
USA
Source: FAO, Kontali
28
Channel Caeish U.S. Produc3on and Real Price
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Real price of live caeish (USD per kg)
Produc3on (Metric tonnes)
Production Real price of live catfish
Sources: FAO, Kontali, USDA/NASS
29
Seabass & Sea Bream Mediterranean Produc3on
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Produc3on in metric tonnes
Sea Breams Sea Basses
Source: FEAP, Kontali (2006-‐2013)
30
Seabass & Sea Bream European Produc3on & Real Italian Import Price
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
Real Price (Euro per kilo)
Produc3on (metric tonnes)
Produc3on Sea Basses and Breams Real price fresh whole seabass Real price fresh Gilthead seabream
Source: FEAP, Kontali, Eurostat
Sea Bream
32
Seabream Produc3on in Mediterranean Countries
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000
Greece
Turkey
Spain
Italy
France
Others
Metric Tonnes
2013
2012
2011
2010
Source: Kontali
Seabass
34
Seabass Produc3on in Mediterranean Countries
Source: Kontali
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Greece
Turkey
Spain
Italy
France
Others
Metric Tonnes
2013
2012
2011
2010
Flaeishes
36
Olive Flounder Produc3on and real farmgate price
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1993
19
94
1995
19
96
1997
19
98
1999
20
00
2001
20
02
2003
20
04
2005
20
06
2007
20
08
2009
20
10
2011
20
12
2013
20
14
Real price (USD/kg)
Produc3on in metric tonnes Japan Rep. of Korea Real price Rep. of Korea (USD/kg)
Sources: FAO (1993-‐2009), Dr. Sungchul C. Bai (2010-‐2013)
37
Turbot Produc3on in selected countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Real Pric
e (USD
/Kg)
Metric
Ton
nes
China Others Norway Denmark Portugal France Spain Real Farmgate Price Spain
Sources: FAO, Kontali.
38 38
Turbot Produc3on in selected countries excl. China
Sources: FAO, Kontali, and anonymous source for Chile
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Real Price (USD
/Kg)
Metric
Ton
nes
Others Norway Denmark Portugal France Spain Real Farmgate Price Spain
39
Atlan3c Halibut Produc3on
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Real Pric
e (USD
/kg)
Prod
uc3o
n in m
etric
tonn
es
Norway UK Iceland Real Farmgate Price Norway
Source: FAO (2001-‐2004), Kontali (2005-‐2010), NSEC (prices). Note: Prices 2001-‐2011 are annual averages, price in 2012 is January-‐September average.
Barramundi
41
Barramundi Total Produc3on and Real Price Australia un3l 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000 1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Metric
tonn
es
Source: FAO
42
Barramundi Total produc3on by major producing countries
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Metric
Ton
nes
Others Australia Indonesia
Thailand Malaysia Taiwan
Source: FAO
43 43
Barramundi Produc3on forecasts for selected countries
Sources: FAO (2002-‐2010) and anonymous sources (2011-‐2013)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E
2012E
2013E
Metrc Ton
nes
Taiwan Indonesia
Cobia
45
Cobia Major Producing Countries un3l 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Real pric
e Taiwan
(USD
/kg)
Metric
Ton
nes
Other Colombia Taiwan China Real price Taiwan
Source: FAO
46 46
Cobia Major Producing Countries un3l 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real pric
e Taiwan
(USD
/kg)
Metric
Ton
nes
Other Colombia Taiwan China Real price Taiwan
Source: FAO (2003-‐2010) and Kontali (2011). Note: In 2011 “Other” includes Colombia.
47
Farmed Cobia Es3mates for Taiwan and Colombia
0 500
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Metric Tonnes Colombia, FAO
Colombia, Anonymous
Colombia, Diego Ardila
Taiwan, FAO
Taiwan, Kontali
Taiwan, Tzyh-‐Chung Miaw
Taiwan, Anonymous
Source: FAO (2010), Various sources (2011-‐2013)
Atlan3c Cod
49
Atlan3c Cod Total Farmed Produc3on and Norwegian Export Price
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
Real price in Euro per kg
Produc3on in metric tonnes Faroe Islands
Iceland
Canada
UK
Norway
Export price fresh gubed Cod
Sources: Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries (1989-‐2004), Kontali (2005-‐2013), Norwegian Seafood Export Council (Prices) . Note: Prices 2001-‐11 are annual averages, price in 2012 is Jan-‐Aug average.
50
Atlan3c Cod Farmed Produc3on by Country
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Metric
tonn
es
Canada Iceland Norway Faroe Islands UK
Source: FAO (-‐2004) and Kontali (2005-‐2013)
Tunas
52
Bluefin Tuna Total Produc3on and US real import price fresh
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Real pric
e (USD
/kg)
Metric
tonn
es
Production US import price fresh
Sources: Produc3on -‐ Apostolos Tzoumas; import price-‐ NMFS. Note: Prices 2002-‐2011 are annual averages, price in 2012 is January-‐August average.
53
Bluefin Tuna Produc3on by Region
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Australia (Southern Bluefin Tuna)
Mediterranean (Northern Atlan3c Bluefin Tuna )
Mexico (Northern Pacific Bluefin Tuna)
Japan (Northern Pacific Bluefin Tuna)
Produc3on in metric tonnes
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Source: Apostolos Tzoumas
54
Summary
55
Produc3on of Surveyed Species 2002-‐2012
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000 20
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1000 M
etric
Ton
nes
Atlantic cod
Barramundi (IN and TW)
Turbot
Olive flounder; Korea Rep.
Coho salmon
European Sea Bass&Bream
Rainbow trout
Channel Catfish
Pangasius, Vietnam
Atlantic salmon
Tilapia
56
Produc3on of Surveyed Species 2002-‐2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000 20
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1000 M
etric
Ton
nes
Atlantic cod
Barramundi (IN and TW)
Turbot
Olive flounder; Korea Rep.
Coho salmon
European Sea Bass&Bream
Rainbow trout
Channel Catfish
Pangasius, Vietnam
Atlantic salmon
Tilapia
57
Did They Double In A Decade? Yes! Percentage Growth 2002-‐2012
163.2 80.9
701.9 43.5 59.1
127.3
50.0 114.2
147.8 268.7
709.7
136.6
0 200 400 600 800
Tilapia Atlantic salmon
Pangasius, Vietnam Channel Catfish
Rainbow trout European Sea Bass&Bream
Coho salmon Olive flounder; Korea Rep.
Turbot Barramundi (IN and TW)
Atlantic cod
ALL SPECIES
Percent
58
Cumula3ve Change in Produc3on 2002-‐2012
-‐500,000
0 500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Tilapia Atlan3c salmon
Coho salmon Rainbow trout
Pangasius, Vietnam Channel Caeish
European Sea Bass&Bream Olive flounder; Korea Rep.
Turbot Barramundi (IN and TW)
Atlan3c cod
Change in produc3on (metric tonnes)
2002-‐2003
2003-‐2004
2004-‐2005
2005-‐2006
2006-‐2007
2007-‐2008
2008-‐2009
2009-‐2010
2010-‐2011
2011-‐2012
59
Annual Percent Growth Rates 2009-‐2012
3.9
12.0
15.2
3.1
7.8
-‐17.8
-‐1.1
-‐0.3
12.0
-‐2.9
-‐25.3
2.7
20.7
17.3
11.8
-‐12.7
13.7
10.1
22.5
14.9
14.0
-‐31.6
3.4
1.1
2.5
-‐8.3
-‐11.9
7.2
1.8
20.0
11.7
3.0
-‐44.4
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Tilapia
Atlan;c salmon
Coho salmon
Rainbow trout
Pangasius, Vietnam
Channel Ca?ish
European Sea Bass&Bream
Olive flounder; Korea Rep.
Turbot, excl. China
Barramundi (IN and TW)
Atlan;c cod
Percent
2012-‐2013
2011-‐2012
2010-‐2011
Average Annual Percentage Growth («Double in a decade» requires 7.2% annual growth)
9.1 9.0 11.4 10.4
18.2
14.4
9.8
0.2
7.5 4.6 5.5
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 18 20
Percen
t growth
60
Thank You!
61