Post on 29-Aug-2020
1
Monday, February 10, 2020
Financial Forecast
Fiscal Years 2020-2025
Policy 4:10
Forecasting Process
• Integrated with annual budget, audit and monthly financial reporting
• 5 year timeline
• High level overview of all district operations and funds
• Emphasis on available resources and fund balances
2
Monthly Budget
Analysis (Current)
Multi-Year Forecasting
Budget Planning
(Next Year)
Overview
• Operating Fund Overview
• Fund Balance Levels
• Property Taxes
• Evidence-Based and Other State Funding
• Expenditures
• Non-Operating and Capital Forecast
• Future Activities 3
4
Operating Funds Forecast
Budget
FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025
Revenue
Local 293,219,831 304,900,369 313,769,382 322,355,067 331,074,963 339,932,297
State 53,220,972 55,231,972 56,301,922 57,377,271 58,458,127 59,544,600
Federal 11,448,317 11,448,317 11,448,317 11,448,317 11,448,317 11,448,317
Total Revenue 357,889,120 371,580,658 381,519,621 391,180,655 400,981,407 410,925,214 92,958,409
Expenditures
Salaries & benefits 270,375,479 280,871,627 290,715,937 298,513,106 306,569,714 314,896,334
Other 85,760,402 88,894,946 89,088,469 90,482,679 92,958,409 95,518,971
Total Expenditures 356,135,881 369,766,573 379,804,406 388,995,785 399,528,123 410,415,305
Excess/Deficit 1,753,239 1,814,085 1,715,215 2,184,870 1,453,284 509,909
Other Financing Sources (Uses) - - - - - - -
Other Reductions -
Net excess (deficit) after reductions 1,753,239 1,814,085 1,715,215 2,184,870 1,453,284 509,909
Beginning Fund Balance 115,732,251 117,485,490 119,299,575 121,014,790 123,199,660 124,652,944
Ending Fund Balance 117,485,490 119,299,575 121,014,790 123,199,660 124,652,944 125,162,853
Fund Balance as % of Revenues 32.83% 32.11% 31.72% 31.49% 31.09% 30.46%
REVENUE / EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS
Forecast
5
Revenues by Source
Property Taxes 77%
Other Local Revenues 5%
Evidence-Based Funding 11%
Other State Revenue 4%
Federal Revenue 3%
Monthly Fund Balance Summary
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mill
ion
s
Revenues
Expenses
Fund Balance
Fund balance high point
Fund balance low point
Property tax installment
Property tax installment
Reported Fund Balance
Monthly Fund Balances –with Property Tax Deferral
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-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Mill
ion
s
Revenues
Expenses
Fund Balance
Same fund balance high point
low point and reported fund balance is a deficit at end of each fiscal year
Previous year June taxes moved into July
low point and reported fund balance is a deficit at end of each fiscal year
Property Tax Assumptions – New Property
8
New Property
New Revenue
Historical Average – 2014-2018 Levies
$60.6 $3.0
2019 Levy 99.2 5.0
Forecast – 2020-2024 Levies
55.5 2.8
(amounts in millions)
Every $10 million in new property generates approximately $500,000 of new, annual revenue for the District
Property Tax Assumptions – Consumer Price Index
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CPI New Revenue
Historical Average –2014 – 2018 Levies
1.45% $4.3
2019 Levy 1.90% 5.7
2020 Levy 2.30% 6.9
Forecast – 2021 –2024 Levies
2.00% 6.0
(revenue amounts in millions)
Every .1% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), results in approximately $300,000 of new, annual revenue for the district
Forecasted Property Tax Levies
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Operating Debt Service
10
historical projected
Property Tax Assumptions – Existing EAV Change
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EAV Change CPI
Historical Average -2014-2018 Levies
3.01% 1.45%
2019 Levy 3.72% 1.90%
2020 Levy* 3.50% 2.30%
Forecast – 2021 –2024 Levies
3.50% 2.00%
(*CPI is actual, EAV Change is a forecast)
If EAV Change exceeds the CPI, taxpayers will receive a reduction in the district’s operating tax rate. If the CPI exceeds EAV Change, operating tax rates could increase.
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Forecasted Tax Rates
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Debt Service 0.6192 0.5916 0.5431 0.5113 0.4967 0.4705 0.4538 0.4352 0.4093 0.3696 0.3404
Operating 5.4584 5.2589 5.0573 4.9854 4.9622 4.875 4.8184 4.7486 4.6798 4.612 4.5451
0.0000
1.0000
2.0000
3.0000
4.0000
5.0000
6.0000
7.0000
Operating Debt Service
historical projected
State Funding Sources
• Anticipate $800,000 of annual EBF funding increases based on District’s Tier and adequacy percentage
• Projecting small increases in mandatory categorical grants (MCATs)
• Unpredictability in non-EBF state funding due to proration and timing of payments
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Evidence-Based Funding (EBF) – Five Largest Districts
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% of Total State
Enrollment
2018Adequacy
Level
2020 Adequacy
Level2020 Tier
Chicago Public Schools
18.6% 63% 65.6% 1
Elgin 46 2.0% 55% 58.7% 1
Indian Prairie204
1.4% 80% 80.0% 2
Rockford 205 1.4% 61% 60.6% 1
Plainfield 202 1.3% 64% 65.6% 1
Total/Average 24.7% 64.6% 66.1%
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Expenditures By Object
Salaries 62%
Employee Benefits 14%
Purchased Services 14%
Supplies & Materials 4%
Capital Outlay 1%Other 3%
Non-Capitalized Equipment 2%
• Salaries aligned to collective bargaining agreements
• Minimum wage impact of $500,000 by 2025
• Health benefits increased by 6-8% annually
• Special Education Out-of-District tuition increased by 9%
• All consumables increased by Consumer Price Index
• Transportation Purchased Services increased 9.5% in alignment with contract
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Expenditure Assumptions
Annual Capital Expenditures By Fund
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2020 Budget 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
An
nu
al E
xpen
dit
ure
s (M
illio
ns)
Operating (fund 20) Non Operating (Fund 60)
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Capital Projects Fund 60 Projected Fund Balances
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000Fund Balance
Revenues
Expenditures
Land sale and transfer from operations
Gradual decrease of fund balance as less funding is available in operating budget
18
Bond and Interest Fund Payment Schedule
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Principal Interest Remaining Bond Principal
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Non-Operating Forecast
20
Budget
FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025
Revenue
Local 28,394,538 28,244,829 28,313,585 28,056,084 27,010,336 25,722,299
State - - - - - -
Federal - - - - - -
Total Revenue 28,394,538 28,244,829 28,313,585 28,056,084 27,010,336 25,722,299
Expenditures
Salaries & Benefits - - - - - -
Other 29,681,284 29,680,622 31,688,594 33,002,000 32,425,275 30,792,225
Total Expenditures 29,681,284 29,680,622 31,688,594 33,002,000 32,425,275 30,792,225
Excess/(Deficit) (1,286,746) (1,435,793) (3,375,009) (4,945,916) (5,414,939) (5,069,926)
Other financing sources 3,490,912 - - - - -
Change in Fund Balance 2,204,166 (1,435,793) (3,375,009) (4,945,916) (5,414,939) (5,069,926)
Beginning Fund Balance 30,941,460 33,145,626 31,709,833 28,334,824 23,388,908 17,973,969
Ending Fund Balance 33,145,626 31,709,833 28,334,824 23,388,908 17,973,969 12,904,043
Fund Balance as % of Revenues 116.7% 112.3% 100.1% 83.4% 66.5% 50.2%
REVENUE / EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS
Forecast
21
Future Activities
• Continue to monitor assumptions
• Monitor State of Illinois funding and potential legislation
• Determine EBF elements to implement
• Continued Board of Education updates
• Forecast transition to Tentative Budget early spring