Post on 07-Jul-2018
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Figure 11.1
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1.00 0.00
0.75 0.25
0.50
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Figure 11.2
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Boat Sales (Sunny)1.0 0.0
0.75 0.25
0.50
2boats
30%40%
4boatss
10% 20%
3 boats
5boatss
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Figure 11.3
Page 3
Arrival No. Random No.1 0.4429573202 0.182533358 Cell B2 contains:= !"#$3 0.97144071& Cell B2 'as co(ie) )o'n4 0.&30599875
5 0.332702&3&& 0.&839157417 0.94781&18&8 0.7140907099 0.29&1759&1
10 0.955435458
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Figure 11.4
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Simulation for Sail Aweigh Sunny weather Rainy weather
c.d.f Demand c.d.f Demand0.0 2 0.0 2 Pro*it = +30,000 Ex ected rofit0.2 3 0.3 3 Cost o* o-er = +5,000 +59,1000.5 4 0.7 4 Cost o* un)er = +1,000 Cell 5 contains:0.9 5 0.9 5 =!/ ! $ 12: 211.0 1.0
!rder si"eRandom 2
#ear $eather Num%er Demand &rofit &enalty Net &rofit1 unn 0.284311 3 &0000 1000 590002 unn 0.493088 3 &0000 1000 590003 ain 0.210523 2 &0000 0 &00004 unn 0.759585 4 &0000 2000 580005 ain 0.095229 2 &0000 0 &0000& ain 0.453325 3 &0000 1000 590007 unn 0.320852 3 &0000 1000 590008 ain 0.30203 3 &0000 1000 590009 unn 0.443255 3 &0000 1000 59000
10 unn 0.413978 3 &0000 1000 59000Cell B12 contains: = F$ !"#$ 0.7, unn , ain $6 ic is later *ro enCell C12 contains: = !"#$ $' ic is *ro en laterCell #12 contains: = F$B12= unn ,/ ;+F+5Cell 12 contains: = 12?F12
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Figure 11.5
Page 5
Simulation for Sail Aweigh S unny weather Rainy weather Summary Average demand' 3.342 &arameters'c.d.f Demand c.d.f Demand Average rofit' Pro*it (er sol) boat: +30,0000.0 2 0.0 2 r)er si e = 2 58&58 Cost o* being o-er: +5,0000.2 3 0.3 3 r)er si e = 3 81234 Cost o* being un)er: +1,0000.5 4 0.7 4 r)er si e = 4 927940.9 5 0.9 5 r)er si e = 5 842001.0 1.0
!rder si"e !rder si"e !rder si"eRandom 2 3 4
#ear $eather Num%er Demand &rofit &enalty Net &rofit &rofit &enalty Net &rofit &rofit &enalty Net &rofit &rofit1 unn 0.284311 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 850002 unn 0.493088 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 850003 ain 0.210523 2 &0000 0 &0000 &0000 5000 55000 &0000 10000 500004 unn 0.759585 4 &0000 2000 58000 90000 1000 89000 120000 0 120000
495 unn 0.9&8&27 5 &0000 3000 57000 90000 2000 88000 120000 1000 11900049& unn 0.09833 2 &0000 0 &0000 &0000 5000 55000 &0000 10000 50000497 unn 0.912117 5 &0000 3000 57000 90000 2000 88000 120000 1000 119000498 unn 0.110289 2 &0000 0 &0000 &0000 5000 55000 &0000 10000 50000499 ain 0.3&2819 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 85000500 unn 0.457518 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 85000
Cell B12 contains: = F$ !"#$ 0.7, unn , ain $6 ic is later *ro enCell C12 contains: = !"#$ $' ic is *ro en laterCell #12 contains: = F$B12= unn ,/ ;
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Figure 11.&
Page &
Arrival Random nterrarrival Arrival( ar *) num%er +imes +ime
01 0.442957320 4 4 Cell B4 contains: = !"#$ $Be*ore being *ro en2 0.1825333585 2 & Cell C4 contains:3 0.97144071&1 12 18 = F$B4 0.2,2, F$B4 0.5,4, F$B4 0.9,8,124 0.&305998753 8 2& Cell #4 contains:=#3DC45 0.332702&3&1 4 30 Cells B4,C4, an) #4 'ere co(ie) )o'n& 0.&839157407 8 387 0.94781&18&1 12 508 0.714090708& 8 589 0.29&1759&05 4 &2
10 0.9554354577 12 74
tarting ti e o* si ulation
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Figure 11.&
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I J K L M N O P Q
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Figure 11.&
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R S T U ! " # $
1
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Figure 11.&
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AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI
1
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Figure 11.&
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AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR
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Figure 11.&
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AS AT AU A A! A" A# A$ BA
1
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Figure 11.&
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BB BC BD BE BF BG BH BI BJ
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Figure 11.&
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BK BL BM BN BO BP BQ BR BS
1
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Figure 11.&
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BT BU B B! B" B# B$ CA CB
1
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Figure 11.&
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CC CD CE CF CG CH CI CJ CK
1
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Figure 11.&
Page 1&
CL CM CN CO CP CQ CR CS CT
1
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Figure 11.&
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CU C C! C" C# C$ DA DB DC
1
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Figure 11.&
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DD DE DF DG DH DI DJ DK DL
1
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Figure 11.&
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DM DN DO DP DQ DR DS DT DU
1
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Figure 11.&
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D D! D" D# D$ EA EB EC ED
1
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Figure 11.&
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EE EF EG EH EI EJ EK EL EM
1
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Figure 11.&
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EN EO EP EQ ER ES ET EU E
1
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Figure 11.&
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E! E" E# E$ FA FB FC FD FE
1
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Figure 11.&
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FF FG FH FI FJ FK FL FM FN
1
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Figure 11.&
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FO FP FQ FR FS FT FU F F!
1
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Figure 11.&
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F" F# F$ GA GB GC GD GE GF
1
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Figure 11.&
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GG GH GI GJ GK GL GM GN GO
1
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Figure 11.&
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GP GQ GR GS GT GU G G! G"
1
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Figure 11.&
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G# G$ HA HB HC HD HE HF HG
1
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Figure 11.&
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HH HI HJ HK HL HM HN HO HP
1
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Figure 11.&
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HQ HR HS HT HU H H! H" H#
1
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Figure 11.&
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H$ IA IB IC ID IE IF IG IH
1
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Figure 11.&
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II IJ IK IL IM IN IO IP IQ
1
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Figure 11.&
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Num%er
IR IS IT IU I
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Figure 11.7
Page 35
Arrival Random nterrarrival Arrival Random Re air Re air Re air ( ar) Num%er +imes +ime Num%er +ime Started om leted
0 , , 0 ? ? 0 ?1 0.4429& 4 4 0.7798 4 4 82 0.18253 2 & 0.3403 2 8 103 0.&30&0 8 14 0.4278 2 14 1&4 0.97144 12 2& 0.1841 2 2& 285 0.33270 4 30 0.8954 1& 30 4&& 0.&8392 8 38 0.&971 4 4& 507 0.94782 12 50 0.3254 2 50 528 0.71409 8 58 0.3085 2 58 &09 0.29&18 4 &2 0.9009 24 &2 8&
10 0.95544 12 74 0.&022 4 8& 90
Cell 4 contains: = !"#$Cell F4 contains: = F$ 4 0.5,2, F$ 4 0.8,4, F$ 4 0.9,1&,24Cell 4 contains: = !E$#4,A3Cell A4 contain: =F4D 4
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Figure 11.8
Page 3&
Arrivalsar - ar ar /
0 1 2 3 4 5 & 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1& 17 18
ar - ar ar /
De artures
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Figure 11.9
Page 37
+otal Ex ected ost for the &aris Body Sho ost of 0ee ing a car waiting 1 100 (er our ost of re air erson - 1 75 (er our
Arrival Random No. nterrarrival Arrival Random Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ost of ( ar) +imes +ime Num%er +ime Started om leted $ait $aiting
0 , , 0 ? ? 0 ?1 0.4429& 4 4 0.7798 4 4 8 4 4002 0.18253 2 & 0.3403 2 8 10 4 4003 0.&30&0 8 14 0.4278 2 14 1& 2 2004 0.97144 12 2& 0.1841 2 2& 28 2 2005 0.33270 4 30 0.8954 1& 30 4& 1& 1&00& 0.&8392 8 38 0.&971 4 4& 50 12 12007 0.94782 12 50 0.3254 2 50 52 2 2008 0.71409 8 58 0.3085 2 58 &0 2 2009 0.29&18 4 &2 0.9009 24 &2 8& 24 2400
10 0.95544 12 74 0.&022 4 8& 90 1& 1&00+otal ost of waiting 1 8400
Cell & contains: =A&?#& +otal cost of the re air erson 1 &750 Cell & contains: = &>+ +1 +otal cost (re air 3 waiting) 1 15150 Cell 1& contains: = < $ &: 15 Average cost er car 1 1515 Cell 17 contains: =A15>+ +2
Cell 18 contains: = < $ 1&: 17 Cell 19 contains: = 18G!15
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Figure 11.10
Page 38
&aris Body Sho ost of 0ee ing a car waiting 1 100 (er our ost of re air erson - 1 75 (er our ost of re air erson 1 25 (er our
&ercent factor 1 0.&Arrival Random nterrarrival Arrival Random R e air Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ost of ( ar) Num%er +ime +ime Num%er +ime- +ime Started om leted $ait $aiting
0 , , 0 ? ? 0 ? 1 0.4429& 4 4 0.7798 4 2.4 4 &.4 2.4 2402 0.18253 2 & 0.3403 2 1.2 &.4 7.& 1.& 1&03 0.&30&0 8 14 0.4278 2 1.2 14 15.2 1.2 1204 0.97144 12 2& 0.1841 2 1.2 2& 27.2 1.2 1205 0.33270 4 30 0.8954 1& 9.& 30 39.& 9.& 9&0& 0.&8392 8 38 0.&971 4 2.4 39.& 42 4 4007 0.94782 12 50 0.3254 2 1.2 50 51.2 1.2 1208 0.71409 8 58 0.3085 2 1.2 58 59.2 1.2 1209 0.29&18 4 &2 0.9009 24 14.4 &2 7&.4 14.4 1440
10 0.95544 12 74 0.&022 4 2.4 7&.4 78.8 4.8 480+otal cost of waiting 1 41&0
Cell 8 contains: =F8>+ +4 +otal cost of re air eo le 1 7880Cell ;19 contains: = 17>$+ +2D+ +3 +otal (service cost 3 waiting cost) 1 12040Cell ;21 contains: = < $;18:;19 Average cost er car 1 1204Cell ;21 contains: =;20G!17
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Figure 11.11
ost of 0ee ing a car waiting 1 100 (er our ost of re air erson - 1 75 (er our ost of re air erson 1 25 (er our
&ercent re air (time 4time-) 1 0.&Arrival Arrival Random Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ost of Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ( ar) +ime Num%er +ime- Started om leted $ait- $aiting- +ime Started om leted $ait
?1 8 0.4&54 2 8 10 2 200 1.2 8 9.2 1.2
98 &22 0.9412 24 &&4 &88 && &&00 14.4 &22 &3&.4 14.499 &24 0.&222 4 &88 &92 &8 &800 2.4 &3&.4 &38.8 14.8
100 &28 0.5913 4 &92 &9& &8 &800 2.4 &38.8 &41.2 13.2+otal cost of waiting 1 583800 +otal cost of waiting 1
+otal cost of re air eo le 1 52200 +otal cost of re air eo le 1 +otal (service cost 3 waiting cost) 1 &3&000 +otal (service cost 3 waiting cost) 1
Average cost er car 1 &3&0 Average cost er car 1
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Figure 11.11
ost of $aiting
120
144014801320
82480&4120
14&&0014&&
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Figure 11.13
Page 42
8niform 8niform Discrete Normal Binomial9 to - :9 to ;9 nterarrival distri%ution Arrival times0.3294 47.&400 2 0.2 8 79.9450 170.2&14 42.013& 4 0.3 4 111.2032 180.3&53 51.9297 8 0.4 8 124.3373 240.9201 57.9821 12 0.1 2 100.8839 270.5073 57.&922 2 108.2201 100.4&80 59.1&93 4 75.&&40 200.2177 40.2899 4 89.8&23 220.721& 48.1484 8 13&.0837 230.55&9 57.2&49 2 97.8827 240.97&1 42.7717 12 122.0414 280.5041 44.9007 4 91.937& 250.9979 40.9095 8 118.7214 240.27&2 40.&47& 4 &2.4752 2&0.557& 43.282& 2 81.&327 250.42&9 44.3922 4 115.123& 18
(-99< 9 ) 1 9.9=-/< n 1 :-:
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Figure 11.14
Page 43
2.2. 2and ,,, Simulation of Sales of a $inter >ac0et Average Bin Bin Frequency Cumulative % &rofit er ?ac0et sold from order' +30 Net &rofit $+30,000 $+30,000 1 .20% &enalty if order @ demand' +10 +130,44& +0 +0 4 1.00% &enalty if demand @ order' +20 +30,000 +30,000 3 1.&0%
5ean Std. Dev. +&0,000 +&0,000 18 5.20%!rder Si"e Demand 5000 1200 +90,000 +90,000 &2 17.&0%
&500 +120,000 +120,000 112 40.00%
&rofit from &enalty Net +150,000 +150,000 123 &4.&0%Re lication Demand !rder ost &rofit +180,000 +180,000 114 87.40%1 &47& +194,280 +240 +194,040 +210,000 +210,000 &3 100.00%2 390& +117,180 +25,940 +91,240 ore 0 100.00%3 4302 +129,0&0 +21,980 +107,080
497 &554 +195,000 +1,080 +193,920498 51&0 +154,800 +13,400 +141,400499 530& +159,180 +11,940 +147,240500 3353 +100,590 +31,470 +&9,120
Cell B10 containe): =
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Figure 11.15
Page 44
Simulation of Sail Aweigh using CR S &ro%a%ility distri%ution
&ossi%le order uantity Demand Sunny Demand Rainy &arameters2 2 0.2 2 0.3 Profit/boat +30,0003 3 0.3 3 0.4 Cost-over +5,000
4 4 0.4 4 0.2 Cost-under +1,0005 5 0.1 5 0.1
!rder uantity J!## "KSimulation ross 8nder4!ver Net
$eather Demand &rofit &enalty &rofitJ!## "K J!## "K J!## "K J!## "K J!## "K
Cell B8 contains: = isI i table$B4:B7Cell !11 contains: = F$ isI
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Figure 11.1&
(ensL ;
*ileSaveCR Sfile
hangeCR Ssettings
Add Selectedcells as CR S!ut uts
Dis lay in uts%y out ut+a%le
RunSimulation
Show mainCRis0$indows
gnore thesetwo , theyre uire another
rogram
SaveCR Sfile
! ensCR Sfile
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Figure 11.17
Page 4&
Summary Statistics for Sail Aweighterations= 500i ulations= 4
J n(ut /ariables= 4J ut(ut /ariables= 1Summary Statistics
ell 5inimum 5ean 5aximum11 $ i J1 57000 58700 &000011 $ i J2 55000 8091& 9000011 $ i J3 50000 91&12 12000011 $ i J4 45000 90500 150000
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Figure 11.18
Page 47
CR S Simulation of Sail Aweigh Simulations1 : terations1 =99Descri tion !ut ut (Sim*-) !ut ut (Sim* ) !ut ut (Sim*/) !ut ut (Sim*:)
Cell E-- E-- E-- E--Minimum = +57,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,000
Maximum = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +150,000Mean = +58,700 +80,91& +91,&12 +90,500
Std Deviation = +95& +14,73& +27,9&1 +33,4&1Variance = 914000 2.17 D08 7.82 D08 1.12 D09
Mode = +58,000 +89,000 +120,000 +115,0005% Perc = +57,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,000
10% Perc = +57,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,00015% Perc = +58,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,000
0% Perc = +58,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,0005% Perc = +58,000 +88,000 +85,000 +80,000
!0% Perc = +58,000 +88,000 +85,000 +80,000!5% Perc = +58,000 +88,000 +85,000 +80,000"0% Perc = +58,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,000"5% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,00050% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,00055% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,000#0% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +119,000 +115,000#5% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +119,000 +115,000$0% Perc = +59,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,000$5% Perc = +59,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,000
0% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,0005% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,000
&0% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +150,000&5% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +150,000
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Figure 11.18
Page 48
G H I J K L M N O
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Figure 11.18
Page 49
P Q R S T U
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Figure 11.19
Page 50
#istribution *or unn G Pro*itG 11$ iBJ1%
P : B ! B 3 9 3 C M
/alues in Aun)re)s
0.00
0.07
0.13
0.20
0.2&
0.33
570 575 580 585 590 595 &00
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Figure 11.20
Page 52
G123456789
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Figure 11.21
Page 53
D+F Simulations1 - terations1 =99Name Net &resent Falue Sales 4 #ear - Sales 4 #ear Sales 4 #ear / Sales 4 #ear : Sales 4 #ear =
Descri tion !ut ut Normal( < /) Normal(BG
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Figure 11.22
#istribution *or "et Present /alue = GalesGC7
P : B ! B 3 9 3 C M
/alues in en illions
0.00
0.03
0.0&
0.09
0.12
0.1&
?12.2?24.4?3&.& 0.0 12.2 24.4 3&.& 48.8