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Figure 11.1

Page 1

1.00 0.00

0.75 0.25

0.50

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Figure 11.2

Page 2

Boat Sales (Sunny)1.0 0.0

0.75 0.25

0.50

2boats

30%40%

4boatss

10% 20%

3 boats

5boatss

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Figure 11.3

Page 3

Arrival No. Random No.1 0.4429573202 0.182533358 Cell B2 contains:= !"#$3 0.97144071& Cell B2 'as co(ie) )o'n4 0.&30599875

5 0.332702&3&& 0.&839157417 0.94781&18&8 0.7140907099 0.29&1759&1

10 0.955435458

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Figure 11.4

Page 4

Simulation for Sail Aweigh Sunny weather Rainy weather

c.d.f Demand c.d.f Demand0.0 2 0.0 2 Pro*it = +30,000 Ex ected rofit0.2 3 0.3 3 Cost o* o-er = +5,000 +59,1000.5 4 0.7 4 Cost o* un)er = +1,000 Cell 5 contains:0.9 5 0.9 5 =!/ ! $ 12: 211.0 1.0

!rder si"eRandom 2

#ear $eather Num%er Demand &rofit &enalty Net &rofit1 unn 0.284311 3 &0000 1000 590002 unn 0.493088 3 &0000 1000 590003 ain 0.210523 2 &0000 0 &00004 unn 0.759585 4 &0000 2000 580005 ain 0.095229 2 &0000 0 &0000& ain 0.453325 3 &0000 1000 590007 unn 0.320852 3 &0000 1000 590008 ain 0.30203 3 &0000 1000 590009 unn 0.443255 3 &0000 1000 59000

10 unn 0.413978 3 &0000 1000 59000Cell B12 contains: = F$ !"#$ 0.7, unn , ain $6 ic is later *ro enCell C12 contains: = !"#$ $' ic is *ro en laterCell #12 contains: = F$B12= unn ,/ ;+F+5Cell 12 contains: = 12?F12

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Figure 11.5

Page 5

Simulation for Sail Aweigh S unny weather Rainy weather Summary Average demand' 3.342 &arameters'c.d.f Demand c.d.f Demand Average rofit' Pro*it (er sol) boat: +30,0000.0 2 0.0 2 r)er si e = 2 58&58 Cost o* being o-er: +5,0000.2 3 0.3 3 r)er si e = 3 81234 Cost o* being un)er: +1,0000.5 4 0.7 4 r)er si e = 4 927940.9 5 0.9 5 r)er si e = 5 842001.0 1.0

!rder si"e !rder si"e !rder si"eRandom 2 3 4

#ear $eather Num%er Demand &rofit &enalty Net &rofit &rofit &enalty Net &rofit &rofit &enalty Net &rofit &rofit1 unn 0.284311 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 850002 unn 0.493088 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 850003 ain 0.210523 2 &0000 0 &0000 &0000 5000 55000 &0000 10000 500004 unn 0.759585 4 &0000 2000 58000 90000 1000 89000 120000 0 120000

495 unn 0.9&8&27 5 &0000 3000 57000 90000 2000 88000 120000 1000 11900049& unn 0.09833 2 &0000 0 &0000 &0000 5000 55000 &0000 10000 50000497 unn 0.912117 5 &0000 3000 57000 90000 2000 88000 120000 1000 119000498 unn 0.110289 2 &0000 0 &0000 &0000 5000 55000 &0000 10000 50000499 ain 0.3&2819 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 85000500 unn 0.457518 3 &0000 1000 59000 90000 0 90000 90000 5000 85000

Cell B12 contains: = F$ !"#$ 0.7, unn , ain $6 ic is later *ro enCell C12 contains: = !"#$ $' ic is *ro en laterCell #12 contains: = F$B12= unn ,/ ;

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Figure 11.&

Page &

Arrival Random nterrarrival Arrival( ar *) num%er +imes +ime

01 0.442957320 4 4 Cell B4 contains: = !"#$ $Be*ore being *ro en2 0.1825333585 2 & Cell C4 contains:3 0.97144071&1 12 18 = F$B4 0.2,2, F$B4 0.5,4, F$B4 0.9,8,124 0.&305998753 8 2& Cell #4 contains:=#3DC45 0.332702&3&1 4 30 Cells B4,C4, an) #4 'ere co(ie) )o'n& 0.&839157407 8 387 0.94781&18&1 12 508 0.714090708& 8 589 0.29&1759&05 4 &2

10 0.9554354577 12 74

tarting ti e o* si ulation

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Figure 11.&

Page 7

I J K L M N O P Q

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Figure 11.&

Page 8

R S T U ! " # $

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 9

AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 10

AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 11

AS AT AU A A! A" A# A$ BA

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 12

BB BC BD BE BF BG BH BI BJ

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 13

BK BL BM BN BO BP BQ BR BS

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 14

BT BU B B! B" B# B$ CA CB

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 15

CC CD CE CF CG CH CI CJ CK

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 1&

CL CM CN CO CP CQ CR CS CT

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 17

CU C C! C" C# C$ DA DB DC

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 18

DD DE DF DG DH DI DJ DK DL

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 19

DM DN DO DP DQ DR DS DT DU

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 20

D D! D" D# D$ EA EB EC ED

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 21

EE EF EG EH EI EJ EK EL EM

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 22

EN EO EP EQ ER ES ET EU E

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 23

E! E" E# E$ FA FB FC FD FE

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 24

FF FG FH FI FJ FK FL FM FN

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 25

FO FP FQ FR FS FT FU F F!

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Figure 11.&

Page 2&

F" F# F$ GA GB GC GD GE GF

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 27

GG GH GI GJ GK GL GM GN GO

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Figure 11.&

Page 28

GP GQ GR GS GT GU G G! G"

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Figure 11.&

Page 29

G# G$ HA HB HC HD HE HF HG

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 30

HH HI HJ HK HL HM HN HO HP

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 31

HQ HR HS HT HU H H! H" H#

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 32

H$ IA IB IC ID IE IF IG IH

1

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Figure 11.&

Page 33

II IJ IK IL IM IN IO IP IQ

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Figure 11.&

Page 34

Num%er

IR IS IT IU I

1

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Figure 11.7

Page 35

Arrival Random nterrarrival Arrival Random Re air Re air Re air ( ar) Num%er +imes +ime Num%er +ime Started om leted

0 , , 0 ? ? 0 ?1 0.4429& 4 4 0.7798 4 4 82 0.18253 2 & 0.3403 2 8 103 0.&30&0 8 14 0.4278 2 14 1&4 0.97144 12 2& 0.1841 2 2& 285 0.33270 4 30 0.8954 1& 30 4&& 0.&8392 8 38 0.&971 4 4& 507 0.94782 12 50 0.3254 2 50 528 0.71409 8 58 0.3085 2 58 &09 0.29&18 4 &2 0.9009 24 &2 8&

10 0.95544 12 74 0.&022 4 8& 90

Cell 4 contains: = !"#$Cell F4 contains: = F$ 4 0.5,2, F$ 4 0.8,4, F$ 4 0.9,1&,24Cell 4 contains: = !E$#4,A3Cell A4 contain: =F4D 4

A B C D E F G H

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Figure 11.8

Page 3&

Arrivalsar - ar ar /

0 1 2 3 4 5 & 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1& 17 18

ar - ar ar /

De artures

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Figure 11.9

Page 37

+otal Ex ected ost for the &aris Body Sho ost of 0ee ing a car waiting 1 100 (er our ost of re air erson - 1 75 (er our

Arrival Random No. nterrarrival Arrival Random Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ost of ( ar) +imes +ime Num%er +ime Started om leted $ait $aiting

0 , , 0 ? ? 0 ?1 0.4429& 4 4 0.7798 4 4 8 4 4002 0.18253 2 & 0.3403 2 8 10 4 4003 0.&30&0 8 14 0.4278 2 14 1& 2 2004 0.97144 12 2& 0.1841 2 2& 28 2 2005 0.33270 4 30 0.8954 1& 30 4& 1& 1&00& 0.&8392 8 38 0.&971 4 4& 50 12 12007 0.94782 12 50 0.3254 2 50 52 2 2008 0.71409 8 58 0.3085 2 58 &0 2 2009 0.29&18 4 &2 0.9009 24 &2 8& 24 2400

10 0.95544 12 74 0.&022 4 8& 90 1& 1&00+otal ost of waiting 1 8400

Cell & contains: =A&?#& +otal cost of the re air erson 1 &750 Cell & contains: = &>+ +1 +otal cost (re air 3 waiting) 1 15150 Cell 1& contains: = < $ &: 15 Average cost er car 1 1515 Cell 17 contains: =A15>+ +2

Cell 18 contains: = < $ 1&: 17 Cell 19 contains: = 18G!15

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Figure 11.10

Page 38

&aris Body Sho ost of 0ee ing a car waiting 1 100 (er our ost of re air erson - 1 75 (er our ost of re air erson 1 25 (er our

&ercent factor 1 0.&Arrival Random nterrarrival Arrival Random R e air Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ost of ( ar) Num%er +ime +ime Num%er +ime- +ime Started om leted $ait $aiting

0 , , 0 ? ? 0 ? 1 0.4429& 4 4 0.7798 4 2.4 4 &.4 2.4 2402 0.18253 2 & 0.3403 2 1.2 &.4 7.& 1.& 1&03 0.&30&0 8 14 0.4278 2 1.2 14 15.2 1.2 1204 0.97144 12 2& 0.1841 2 1.2 2& 27.2 1.2 1205 0.33270 4 30 0.8954 1& 9.& 30 39.& 9.& 9&0& 0.&8392 8 38 0.&971 4 2.4 39.& 42 4 4007 0.94782 12 50 0.3254 2 1.2 50 51.2 1.2 1208 0.71409 8 58 0.3085 2 1.2 58 59.2 1.2 1209 0.29&18 4 &2 0.9009 24 14.4 &2 7&.4 14.4 1440

10 0.95544 12 74 0.&022 4 2.4 7&.4 78.8 4.8 480+otal cost of waiting 1 41&0

Cell 8 contains: =F8>+ +4 +otal cost of re air eo le 1 7880Cell ;19 contains: = 17>$+ +2D+ +3 +otal (service cost 3 waiting cost) 1 12040Cell ;21 contains: = < $;18:;19 Average cost er car 1 1204Cell ;21 contains: =;20G!17

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Figure 11.11

ost of 0ee ing a car waiting 1 100 (er our ost of re air erson - 1 75 (er our ost of re air erson 1 25 (er our

&ercent re air (time 4time-) 1 0.&Arrival Arrival Random Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ost of Re air Re air Re air 2ength of ( ar) +ime Num%er +ime- Started om leted $ait- $aiting- +ime Started om leted $ait

?1 8 0.4&54 2 8 10 2 200 1.2 8 9.2 1.2

98 &22 0.9412 24 &&4 &88 && &&00 14.4 &22 &3&.4 14.499 &24 0.&222 4 &88 &92 &8 &800 2.4 &3&.4 &38.8 14.8

100 &28 0.5913 4 &92 &9& &8 &800 2.4 &38.8 &41.2 13.2+otal cost of waiting 1 583800 +otal cost of waiting 1

+otal cost of re air eo le 1 52200 +otal cost of re air eo le 1 +otal (service cost 3 waiting cost) 1 &3&000 +otal (service cost 3 waiting cost) 1

Average cost er car 1 &3&0 Average cost er car 1

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Figure 11.11

ost of $aiting

120

144014801320

82480&4120

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Figure 11.13

Page 42

8niform 8niform Discrete Normal Binomial9 to - :9 to ;9 nterarrival distri%ution Arrival times0.3294 47.&400 2 0.2 8 79.9450 170.2&14 42.013& 4 0.3 4 111.2032 180.3&53 51.9297 8 0.4 8 124.3373 240.9201 57.9821 12 0.1 2 100.8839 270.5073 57.&922 2 108.2201 100.4&80 59.1&93 4 75.&&40 200.2177 40.2899 4 89.8&23 220.721& 48.1484 8 13&.0837 230.55&9 57.2&49 2 97.8827 240.97&1 42.7717 12 122.0414 280.5041 44.9007 4 91.937& 250.9979 40.9095 8 118.7214 240.27&2 40.&47& 4 &2.4752 2&0.557& 43.282& 2 81.&327 250.42&9 44.3922 4 115.123& 18

(-99< 9 ) 1 9.9=-/< n 1 :-:

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Figure 11.14

Page 43

2.2. 2and ,,, Simulation of Sales of a $inter >ac0et Average Bin Bin Frequency Cumulative % &rofit er ?ac0et sold from order' +30 Net &rofit $+30,000 $+30,000 1 .20% &enalty if order @ demand' +10 +130,44& +0 +0 4 1.00% &enalty if demand @ order' +20 +30,000 +30,000 3 1.&0%

5ean Std. Dev. +&0,000 +&0,000 18 5.20%!rder Si"e Demand 5000 1200 +90,000 +90,000 &2 17.&0%

&500 +120,000 +120,000 112 40.00%

&rofit from &enalty Net +150,000 +150,000 123 &4.&0%Re lication Demand !rder ost &rofit +180,000 +180,000 114 87.40%1 &47& +194,280 +240 +194,040 +210,000 +210,000 &3 100.00%2 390& +117,180 +25,940 +91,240 ore 0 100.00%3 4302 +129,0&0 +21,980 +107,080

497 &554 +195,000 +1,080 +193,920498 51&0 +154,800 +13,400 +141,400499 530& +159,180 +11,940 +147,240500 3353 +100,590 +31,470 +&9,120

Cell B10 containe): =

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Figure 11.15

Page 44

Simulation of Sail Aweigh using CR S &ro%a%ility distri%ution

&ossi%le order uantity Demand Sunny Demand Rainy &arameters2 2 0.2 2 0.3 Profit/boat +30,0003 3 0.3 3 0.4 Cost-over +5,000

4 4 0.4 4 0.2 Cost-under +1,0005 5 0.1 5 0.1

!rder uantity J!## "KSimulation ross 8nder4!ver Net

$eather Demand &rofit &enalty &rofitJ!## "K J!## "K J!## "K J!## "K J!## "K

Cell B8 contains: = isI i table$B4:B7Cell !11 contains: = F$ isI

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Figure 11.1&

(ensL ;

*ileSaveCR Sfile

hangeCR Ssettings

Add Selectedcells as CR S!ut uts

Dis lay in uts%y out ut+a%le

RunSimulation

Show mainCRis0$indows

gnore thesetwo , theyre uire another

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Figure 11.17

Page 4&

Summary Statistics for Sail Aweighterations= 500i ulations= 4

J n(ut /ariables= 4J ut(ut /ariables= 1Summary Statistics

ell 5inimum 5ean 5aximum11 $ i J1 57000 58700 &000011 $ i J2 55000 8091& 9000011 $ i J3 50000 91&12 12000011 $ i J4 45000 90500 150000

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Figure 11.18

Page 47

CR S Simulation of Sail Aweigh Simulations1 : terations1 =99Descri tion !ut ut (Sim*-) !ut ut (Sim* ) !ut ut (Sim*/) !ut ut (Sim*:)

Cell E-- E-- E-- E--Minimum = +57,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,000

Maximum = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +150,000Mean = +58,700 +80,91& +91,&12 +90,500

Std Deviation = +95& +14,73& +27,9&1 +33,4&1Variance = 914000 2.17 D08 7.82 D08 1.12 D09

Mode = +58,000 +89,000 +120,000 +115,0005% Perc = +57,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,000

10% Perc = +57,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,00015% Perc = +58,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,000

0% Perc = +58,000 +55,000 +50,000 +45,0005% Perc = +58,000 +88,000 +85,000 +80,000

!0% Perc = +58,000 +88,000 +85,000 +80,000!5% Perc = +58,000 +88,000 +85,000 +80,000"0% Perc = +58,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,000"5% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,00050% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,00055% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +85,000 +80,000#0% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +119,000 +115,000#5% Perc = +59,000 +89,000 +119,000 +115,000$0% Perc = +59,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,000$5% Perc = +59,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,000

0% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,0005% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +115,000

&0% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +150,000&5% Perc = +&0,000 +90,000 +120,000 +150,000

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Figure 11.18

Page 48

G H I J K L M N O

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Figure 11.18

Page 49

P Q R S T U

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Figure 11.19

Page 50

#istribution *or unn G Pro*itG 11$ iBJ1%

P : B ! B 3 9 3 C M

/alues in Aun)re)s

0.00

0.07

0.13

0.20

0.2&

0.33

570 575 580 585 590 595 &00

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Figure 11.20

Page 52

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Figure 11.21

Page 53

D+F Simulations1 - terations1 =99Name Net &resent Falue Sales 4 #ear - Sales 4 #ear Sales 4 #ear / Sales 4 #ear : Sales 4 #ear =

Descri tion !ut ut Normal( < /) Normal(BG

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Figure 11.22

#istribution *or "et Present /alue = GalesGC7

P : B ! B 3 9 3 C M

/alues in en illions

0.00

0.03

0.0&

0.09

0.12

0.1&

?12.2?24.4?3&.& 0.0 12.2 24.4 3&.& 48.8