Fair Winds Calm Seas &

Sunny Skies

Future Trends For LG 2020

Annimac / Anni Macbeth

Futurist & Trend Forecaster www.annimac.com.au

2006 Annual LGMA Conference Esplanade Hotel 27 October 2006 Fremantle WA

27 October 2006 www.annimac.com.au 2

Smooth sailing through 2020

It’s not what happens

but how

you deal with

what happens

that makes a

successful journey

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Successful Navigation LG survive the rough seas

identify the best

destination

chart the best course

thrive on the journey

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Few Stormy Squalls Ahead

1. speed of all change

2. Peak Oil

3. climate change

4. demographic pressures

5. shifting politico economic

values

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Squalls are creating for LG

diversity of client demands

changing role of governance

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Decisions

decisions

decisions …

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Navigating the Challenges

1. speed of all change

2. Peak Oil

3. climate change

4. demographic pressures

5. shifting politico economic

values

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Exponential

Amount of change in 1 day

grandparents had in 1 year

Younger means faster

Navigating the Challenges 1 :

Speed of Change

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I’m never having kids. I hear they take nine months to download.

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By 2020

70 % of job types then

do not exist now

because

Driving all Change : Technology

Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change

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By 2020

80 % technology then

not imagined yet

Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change

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Imagine

what those

jobs in LG

might be . . .

Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change

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Your future receptionist ?

Japanese Robanoid 2006

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Likely jobs in next 15 years ? Director of Neighbour

Relations Virtual Parks Manager Planner of Nano Environment Chief Imagination Officer Hacker Relations Manager Virtual Information Librarian Director of Emerging Thought Holographic Traffic Manager

Navigating the Challenge 1 : Speed of Change

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Technology

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Navigating the Challenges

1. speed of all change

2. Peak Oil

3. climate change

4. demographic pressures

5. shifting political economic

values

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Cost

of

fuel

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Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil

Peak Oil - oil depletion

When demand for oil exceeds

supply

industry experts say by 2010 -

2014

max range by 2007 - 2020

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Peak Oil - depletion forecasts

Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil

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LG can lead by example

Downsize energy use

Localise - self sufficiency

- trade & barter

Innovate - population migration

- sea/tree changers

- bio/passive fuels

Navigating the Challenges 2 : Peak Oil

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Hybrid Electric Diesel Bus

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Solar Thermal Energy Production

Woking UK

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Navigating the Challenges

1. speed of all change

2. Peak Oil

3. climate change

4. demographic pressures

5. shifting political economic

values

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Trends of Climate Change

Global warming : +2° - +4°

Changing rainfall :

“ Eastern desert moving West

Coastal tropics moving South ”

Navigating the Challenges 3 : Climate Change

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Calling for Help

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LG can lead the way

Adapt planning schemes

Diversity rural zoning

Innovate agri biz

Waterwise incentives

Navigating the Challenges 3 : Climate Change

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Navigating the Challenges

1. speed of all change

2. Peak Oil

3. climate change

4. demographic pressures

5. shifting political economic

values

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Sea / Tree changers ?

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Demographic Changes Trends in Rural WA

Farming communities downsizing

Family farms corporatising Urban encroachment Ageing population Succession : youth issues Women as farm biz managers Slow uptake : tech &

knowledge Sea / tree change

Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures

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Generational gap

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Generational Differences

Gaps widening - technology driven

Baby Boomers 45-60 not handing over

Gen X 30-40 frustrated Me journeys

DotComs 15-30 choosing virtual world

Ferals -15 driving major change

Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures

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New

client

demands

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Clients’ Changing Demands

• personal service

• personal options

• environmental concerns

• social concerns

• ageing population issues

• Q B L quadruple bottom line

Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures

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LG can lead the way : values Customer driven : community first

Communication skills

Cooperation Teaming

Flexibility eg zoning, management

Innovative thinking

Risk taking

Multi tasking

Navigating the Challenges 4 : Demographic Pressures

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Different Thinking Models

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Navigating the Challenges

1. speed of all change

2. Peak Oil

3. climate change

4. demographic pressures

5. shifting politico economic

values

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Virtual Life

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Public Attitudes shifting

• distrust of leaders

• increased global knowledge

• want options & say

• local power

• faster decisions, less

bureaucracy

• less governance

Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts

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Two Tiered Government

• two tiers eventually

• LG gaining relevance

• regional structures less so

• likely trend :

• Federal with decreased powers

• LG with increased powers

Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts

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Big Biz & Community

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Big Biz vs Community

• corporate social responsibility

rising

• community engagement rising

• QBL values

• partnership model

• win – win – win biz + people +

planet

Navigating the Challenges 5 : Politico Economic Values Shifts

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Albany Highway Williams 2004

Changing agribiz attitudes

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Fair Winds Calm Seas & Sunny Skies

Future for LG 2020

• Increasing role in governance

• Increasing partnerships • biz• community• govt agencies

• Increasing charting of future course

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Facing the future successfully :

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thank you www. annimac.com.au