Eye on the EconomyTracking Progess on the Housing Recovery

November 12, 2014

eyeonhousing.org

Leading Market Index2

• NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index rose to .90 in the third quarter

• Rose from .89

• Single-family permit index rose from .43 to .44

• 44% of last normal period during the years 2000 - 2003

• Home prices rose from 1.27 to 1.3

• Prices 30% higher than the average during the years 2000 – 2003

• Employment remained at .95

• Employment was 95% of peak levels in 2007

• Read more here

Leading Markets Index3

• 59 out of 350 metro areas have a value over 1

• They have recovered and moved past their last normal state

• Seven areas were added to the list in the last year

• Markets are dominated by energy-producing areas

• Smaller areas with universities or military bases have performed well

• Read more here

Employment Data4

• Non-farm payroll employment increased by 214,000

• Seasonally adjusted basis in October

• 673,000 jobs have been added in the last three months

• After upward revisions in September and August

• National unemployment rate fell to 5.8%

• Read more here

Employment Data5

• Home builders and remodelers added 8,000 jobs in October

• The industry has added 131,000 jobs over the last 12 months

• On average, residential construction has added 10,000 per month over the last six months

• Read more here

Residential Construction Spending

6

• Private residential spending in September increased to an annual rate of $349.1 billion

• Seasonally adjusted

• A 0.4% increase

• Single-family spending increased 1.1%

• Multifamily spending decreased 1.0%

• Home Improvement spending fell .03%

• Read more here

55+ Housing Market Index7

• Single-family 55+ HMI jumped 9 points from the third quarter of 2013

• Rose from 50 to 59

• Highest third quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008

• 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvements

• All three components increased

• Read more here

GDP Growth8

• GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter

• Down from a 4.6% rate in the second quarter

• Slowdown is not surprising considering the rapid pace of the second quarter

• Read more here

Consumer Credit9

• Consumer credit outstanding for the third quarter expanded at a rate of 6.6%

• Seasonally adjusted

• Non-revolving credit grew faster at a rate of 7.9% over the third quarter

• Revolving credit outstanding rose by 3.0%

• Read more here

Remodeler Labor Shortages10

• Shortages were evident in many categories

• Most prevalent in the categories of carpenters

• 72% of remodelers reported a shortage of finished carpenters

• 30% said the shortage was serious

• Read more here

Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey

11

• Demand for loans secured by multifamily residential properties strengthened over the past 3 months of 2014

• Particularly at smaller banks

• Lending standards for loans secured by multifamily residential properties tightened over the past 3 months of 2014

• Read more here

NAHB Analysis12

• Single and multifamily homes built in the last 10 years account for 3.2% of energy consumed in the U.S.

• Read more here

• Energy use is determined by household behavior

• Read more here

• The rate of house price growth recorded in the U.S. places it in the second quintile globally

• Read more here