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Eye on the Economy
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Transcript of Eye on the Economy
Eye on the EconomyTracking Progess on the Housing Recovery
November 12, 2014
eyeonhousing.org
Leading Market Index2
• NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index rose to .90 in the third quarter
• Rose from .89
• Single-family permit index rose from .43 to .44
• 44% of last normal period during the years 2000 - 2003
• Home prices rose from 1.27 to 1.3
• Prices 30% higher than the average during the years 2000 – 2003
• Employment remained at .95
• Employment was 95% of peak levels in 2007
• Read more here
Leading Markets Index3
• 59 out of 350 metro areas have a value over 1
• They have recovered and moved past their last normal state
• Seven areas were added to the list in the last year
• Markets are dominated by energy-producing areas
• Smaller areas with universities or military bases have performed well
• Read more here
Employment Data4
• Non-farm payroll employment increased by 214,000
• Seasonally adjusted basis in October
• 673,000 jobs have been added in the last three months
• After upward revisions in September and August
• National unemployment rate fell to 5.8%
• Read more here
Employment Data5
• Home builders and remodelers added 8,000 jobs in October
• The industry has added 131,000 jobs over the last 12 months
• On average, residential construction has added 10,000 per month over the last six months
• Read more here
Residential Construction Spending
6
• Private residential spending in September increased to an annual rate of $349.1 billion
• Seasonally adjusted
• A 0.4% increase
• Single-family spending increased 1.1%
• Multifamily spending decreased 1.0%
• Home Improvement spending fell .03%
• Read more here
55+ Housing Market Index7
• Single-family 55+ HMI jumped 9 points from the third quarter of 2013
• Rose from 50 to 59
• Highest third quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008
• 12th consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvements
• All three components increased
• Read more here
GDP Growth8
• GDP expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter
• Down from a 4.6% rate in the second quarter
• Slowdown is not surprising considering the rapid pace of the second quarter
• Read more here
Consumer Credit9
• Consumer credit outstanding for the third quarter expanded at a rate of 6.6%
• Seasonally adjusted
• Non-revolving credit grew faster at a rate of 7.9% over the third quarter
• Revolving credit outstanding rose by 3.0%
• Read more here
Remodeler Labor Shortages10
• Shortages were evident in many categories
• Most prevalent in the categories of carpenters
• 72% of remodelers reported a shortage of finished carpenters
• 30% said the shortage was serious
• Read more here
Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
11
• Demand for loans secured by multifamily residential properties strengthened over the past 3 months of 2014
• Particularly at smaller banks
• Lending standards for loans secured by multifamily residential properties tightened over the past 3 months of 2014
• Read more here
NAHB Analysis12
• Single and multifamily homes built in the last 10 years account for 3.2% of energy consumed in the U.S.
• Read more here
• Energy use is determined by household behavior
• Read more here
• The rate of house price growth recorded in the U.S. places it in the second quintile globally
• Read more here