Post on 28-Mar-2015
European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors
Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change
Nicola Gallinaro
Riva del Garda, September 8th 2011
Outline
Key terms
Global figures according to
EULAKES project
Definizioni e termini chiave
Considerazioni generali
Il progetto
Contenuti
CLIMATE
“average weather” described in terms of the mean and variability of relevant variables over a 30-year period
CLIMA “tempo medio” descritto in termini di media e variabilità di variabili rilevanti in un periodo superiore ai 30 anni
definitions according to the IPCC
CLIMATE CHANGE
Statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades or longer)
CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO Variazione statisticamente significativa dello stato medio del clima o della sua variabilità, persistente per un periodo esteso di tempo (decenni o più)
Climate change may be due to natural internal processes, external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of atmosphere or in land use
CLIMATE PROJECTION
A potential future evolution of the climate
Proiezione climatica Potenziale futura evoluzione del clima
According to IPCCIs not a prediction or forecast, is one of many plausibile future statesBased on scenarios of future socio economics and technological development that may or may not be realized
ADAPTATION
Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing climatic environment, whether in response to actual or expected climate change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities
Adattamento
Aggiustamenti nei sistemi naturali o umani a nuove condizioni climatiche, per moderare i danni o per accresce le opportunità, in risposta ad effettivi o attesi cambiamenti climatici
According to IPCCCan be anticipatory or reactive, private or public
“Warming of the climate is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), Summary for Policymakers, Feb. 2007
GLOBAL CLIMATE (Change) FIGURES
Il riscaldamento climatico è inequivocabile, essendo ora evidente dalle osservazioni sull’incremento della temperatura media dell’aria e degli oceani, lo scioglimento di nevi e ghiacciai e dall’innalzamento medio del livello del mare.
Temperature trend
Precipitation trend
Very likely heat waves and heavy precipitation will continue to become more frequent
OTHER GENERAL IMPACTS
Molto probabilmente ondate di calore e forti precipitazioni diventeranno più frequenti (eventi estremi)
High confidence (8/10 chance) of • Warming of lakes and rivers• Earlier occurrence of spring time events• Poleward and upward shifts in plant and
animal ranges
E’ ipotizzabile (8/10):•Riscaldamento di laghi e fiumi•Anticipo degli eventi primaverili•Spostamento verso i poli e verso quote maggiori degli areali di specie animali e vegetali
a coordinating platform for enhancing the value of lakes and basins environmental governance in a climate change environment
THE PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION
La visione progettualeUn richiamo all’agire
Una piattaforma di ccordinamento per innalzare l’afficacia della governance ambientale dei bacini lacustri in un contesto di cambiamento climatico
CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAKE BASINS
European Lakes are going to face environmental problems related to climate change
Climate change looms as an additional threat on the regions economy and ecology by changing climate patterns and compounding the negative effects of current environmental problems
I bacini lacustri europei potrebbero essere progressivamente interessati da problemi ambientali legati ai cambiamenti climatici
Il cambiamento climatico incombe come un’ulteriore minaccia sull’economia regionale e sugli equilibri ecologici sommandosi all’effetto degli attuali problemi ambientali
I
A H
PL
Lake Charzykowskie
53° 46’ N 17° 30’ Ealtitude: 120 m a.s.l.max. depth: 30.5 mmean depth: 9.8 marea = 13 km2
volume = 0.13 km3
CENTRAL EUROPE REGIONS
Lake Garda
45° 42’ N 10° 43’ Ealtitude: 65 m a.s.l.max. depth: 350 mmean depth: 133 marea = 368 km2
volume = 49.03 km3
Lake Neusiedler
47° 38’ N 16° 41 E
altitude: 115 m a.s.l.max. depth: 2.2 mmean depth: 0.8 marea = 178 km2
volume = 0.25 km3
The EULAKES network
Lake Balaton
46° 50’ N 17° 44 E
altitude: 105 m a.s.l.max. depth: 12.2 mmean depth: 3.1 marea = 593 km2
volume = 1.90 km3
I
A H
PL
THE PARTNERSHIP
PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION
Lake Garda, Lake Balaton, Lake Neusiedler Lake Charzykowskie
have unique landscape and great biodiversity.
At the same time the economics of the places are highly dependent from Recreation and Tourism.
PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES
Understanding and responding to climate change represents one of the more important, complex and challenging issues facing the sustainable managemement of lake basin.
Conoscere e e rispondere al cambiamenti climatici è una delle più importanti e complesse sfide a cui deve fare fronte la gestione sostenibile dei bacini lacustri.
PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES To achieve the general objectives, the project will: (i) support the development and implementation of long-term
ecological researches
(ii) Integrating scientifical knowledges in lake planning and management in order to enhance ecological approaches, mitigation and adaptation capability,
(ii) promote the sustainable management of the lakes natural resources through innovative multi-stakeholder platforms
(iii) build awareness among local communities and different sectors of the local economics;
(iv) improve collaboration among Central European lake regions
The specific project objectives are focus on the following key issues:
- Vulnerability assessment with regard to climate change and other environmental stressors (identification of key environmental stressors and risks)
- Mitigation and adaptation strategies to support decision makers and basin planning (analysis of existing lake management plans and strategies
- Development of a catalogue of potential mitigation and adaptation measures
- Integration of methods and experience at local and European scale;
- Local pilot actions
- Environmental governance
- Communication and dissemination
PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
THE PROJECT ACTIONS
Main contents:•LAKE ECOLOGICAL HISTORY CHARACTERISATIONdefinition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts and restoration targets for each lake studied describing secular scale history under environmental changing conditions)
•SURVEY OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS
•DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A SET OF TOOLS: EULAKES MODEL
IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a changing environment
The technical and scientifical WORKPACKAGES (WP)
Miglioramento dei sistemi di monitoraggio.
Caratterizzazione del passato ecologico dei laghi
Analisi dei sistemi di monitoraggio.
Sviluppo ed applicazione di un set di applicativi: EULAKES.
EULAKES MODEL A WEB GIS tool to facilitate analysis and visualisation of data and information
The scientific innovation as immediate support to a conscious territorial planning: the definition of joint tools of research and monitoring is useful to face common problems
Main contents:
• VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTIdentification and assesment of main stressors and potential impacts. Creation of vulnerability and risk maps for the partner lake regiuons
• EMERGING RISKImpacts on lake idrology and water quality, analisys of new invasive species, describe shore zone functionality status using SFI index
VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT Improving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake ecosystems
Valutazione della vulnerabilità
Analisi dei principali fattori di rischio
Main contents:
• CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SIMULATION AND EXPLORATIONClimate simulations runs for the alpine area with CLM )10 km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC
• SCENARIO IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION/MITIGATION STRATEGIESImpacts of climate changes scenarios, mitigation and adaptation measures and strategies, multicriteria (environmental, economic, social, etc,) assesment, defining the environmental impact of different scenarios
Maps of simulation on climate changing and state of
water
VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (second part)
Scenari di cambiamento climatico simulazione ed esplorazione
Valutazione degli scenari di impatto e delle strategie di adattamento e mitigazione
• The role of agriculture in a climate change scenarius (A)
• Status and future dynamics of new species (H)
• Cyanobacteria and water quality: the effects on tourism and potable water (I)
• Sludge permeable and heavy metals (PL)
PILOT ACTIONS Using advanced case studies to support the definition of the common approach
Enhancing the differences in every lake to agree on a common transnational approach for protection
Il ruolo dell’agricoltura
Status e dinamiche delle nuove specie
Cianobatteri e qualità dell’acqua
Fanghi permeabili e metalli pesanti
Main contents:• Development of guidelines for lake
and basin management
• Building and management governance platform (stakeholder participation)
JOINT TRANSNATIONAL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT A NEW MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE (WP6)Mitigation and adaptation strategy to support decision makers and environmental governance
A platform at local and international level based on innovative and European governance models
The GOVERNANCE WP
Sviluppo di linee guida per la gestione dei laghi e dei bacini
Costruzione e gestione di una piattaforma di governance
Data
Decision
Knowledge and understanding
Information
Incr
easi
ng u
tility
Increasing resources and knowledge requirements
Analisy
s and
visual
izatio
n
Modelling
Syntesis and
fore
casting
The EULAKES path
USERS/STAKEHOLDERS- Research scientist- Resources managers – environmental agengies at all
levels- Non governamental organizations- Students and young generations- General pubblic
RESOURCES TO PROTECT• Living resources (biodiversity)• Human health • Habitat protection/preservation• Chemical integrity• Local economy (mainly based on tourism and
agriculture)
The WHO and WHY of EULAKES
- Ecological and human health effects of persistent toxic chemicals
- Non indigenous species invasions, spread, and ecosystems effects;
- Shorezones quantity and quality protection- protection of drinking water intakes from chemical and
microbiological contamination- Eutrophication
The WHAT of EULAKES
•Project funded by the European Territorial Cooperation Central Europe programme
•Budget: 2.910.799 euro
•Period: 1st April 2010 – 31st March 2013
•9 partners from 4 countries are involved
FUNDING
www.eulakes.euI