European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors

Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change

Nicola Gallinaro

Riva del Garda, September 8th 2011

Outline

Key terms

Global figures according to

EULAKES project

Definizioni e termini chiave

Considerazioni generali

Il progetto

Contenuti

CLIMATE

“average weather” described in terms of the mean and variability of relevant variables over a 30-year period

CLIMA “tempo medio” descritto in termini di media e variabilità di variabili rilevanti in un periodo superiore ai 30 anni

definitions according to the IPCC

CLIMATE CHANGE

Statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (decades or longer)

CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO Variazione statisticamente significativa dello stato medio del clima o della sua variabilità, persistente per un periodo esteso di tempo (decenni o più)

Climate change may be due to natural internal processes, external forcing, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of atmosphere or in land use

CLIMATE PROJECTION

A potential future evolution of the climate

Proiezione climatica Potenziale futura evoluzione del clima

According to IPCCIs not a prediction or forecast, is one of many plausibile future statesBased on scenarios of future socio economics and technological development that may or may not be realized

ADAPTATION

Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing climatic environment, whether in response to actual or expected climate change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Adattamento

Aggiustamenti nei sistemi naturali o umani a nuove condizioni climatiche, per moderare i danni o per accresce le opportunità, in risposta ad effettivi o attesi cambiamenti climatici

According to IPCCCan be anticipatory or reactive, private or public

“Warming of the climate is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC),  Summary for Policymakers, Feb. 2007

GLOBAL CLIMATE (Change) FIGURES

Il riscaldamento climatico è inequivocabile, essendo ora evidente dalle osservazioni sull’incremento della temperatura media dell’aria e degli oceani, lo scioglimento di nevi e ghiacciai e dall’innalzamento medio del livello del mare.

Temperature trend

Precipitation trend

Very likely heat waves and heavy precipitation will continue to become more frequent

OTHER GENERAL IMPACTS

Molto probabilmente ondate di calore e forti precipitazioni diventeranno più frequenti (eventi estremi)

High confidence (8/10 chance) of • Warming of lakes and rivers• Earlier occurrence of spring time events• Poleward and upward shifts in plant and

animal ranges

E’ ipotizzabile (8/10):•Riscaldamento di laghi e fiumi•Anticipo degli eventi primaverili•Spostamento verso i poli e verso quote maggiori degli areali di specie animali e vegetali

a coordinating platform for enhancing the value of lakes and basins environmental governance in a climate change environment

THE PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION

La visione progettualeUn richiamo all’agire

Una piattaforma di ccordinamento per innalzare l’afficacia della governance ambientale dei bacini lacustri in un contesto di cambiamento climatico

CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAKE BASINS

European Lakes are going to face environmental problems related to climate change

Climate change looms as an additional threat on the regions economy and ecology by changing climate patterns and compounding the negative effects of current environmental problems

I bacini lacustri europei potrebbero essere progressivamente interessati da problemi ambientali legati ai cambiamenti climatici

Il cambiamento climatico incombe come un’ulteriore minaccia sull’economia regionale e sugli equilibri ecologici sommandosi all’effetto degli attuali problemi ambientali

I

A H

PL

Lake Charzykowskie

53° 46’ N 17° 30’ Ealtitude: 120 m a.s.l.max. depth: 30.5 mmean depth: 9.8 marea = 13 km2

volume = 0.13 km3

CENTRAL EUROPE REGIONS

Lake Garda

45° 42’ N 10° 43’ Ealtitude: 65 m a.s.l.max. depth: 350 mmean depth: 133 marea = 368 km2

volume = 49.03 km3

Lake Neusiedler

47° 38’ N 16° 41 E

altitude: 115 m a.s.l.max. depth: 2.2 mmean depth: 0.8 marea = 178 km2

volume = 0.25 km3

The EULAKES network

Lake Balaton

46° 50’ N 17° 44 E

altitude: 105 m a.s.l.max. depth: 12.2 mmean depth: 3.1 marea = 593 km2

volume = 1.90 km3

I

A H

PL

THE PARTNERSHIP

PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION

Lake Garda, Lake Balaton, Lake Neusiedler Lake Charzykowskie

have unique landscape and great biodiversity.

At the same time the economics of the places are highly dependent from Recreation and Tourism.

PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES

Understanding and responding to climate change represents one of the more important, complex and challenging issues facing the sustainable managemement of lake basin.

Conoscere e e rispondere al cambiamenti climatici è una delle più importanti e complesse sfide a cui deve fare fronte la gestione sostenibile dei bacini lacustri.

PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES To achieve the general objectives, the project will: (i) support the development and implementation of long-term

ecological researches

(ii) Integrating scientifical knowledges in lake planning and management in order to enhance ecological approaches, mitigation and adaptation capability,

(ii) promote the sustainable management of the lakes natural resources through innovative multi-stakeholder platforms

(iii) build awareness among local communities and different sectors of the local economics;

(iv) improve collaboration among Central European lake regions

The specific project objectives are focus on the following key issues:

- Vulnerability assessment with regard to climate change and other environmental stressors (identification of key environmental stressors and risks)

- Mitigation and adaptation strategies to support decision makers and basin planning (analysis of existing lake management plans and strategies

- Development of a catalogue of potential mitigation and adaptation measures

- Integration of methods and experience at local and European scale;

- Local pilot actions

- Environmental governance

- Communication and dissemination

PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

THE PROJECT ACTIONS

Main contents:•LAKE ECOLOGICAL HISTORY CHARACTERISATIONdefinition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts and restoration targets for each lake studied describing secular scale history under environmental changing conditions)

•SURVEY OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS

•DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A SET OF TOOLS: EULAKES MODEL

IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a changing environment

The technical and scientifical WORKPACKAGES (WP)

Miglioramento dei sistemi di monitoraggio.

Caratterizzazione del passato ecologico dei laghi

Analisi dei sistemi di monitoraggio.

Sviluppo ed applicazione di un set di applicativi: EULAKES.

EULAKES MODEL A WEB GIS tool to facilitate analysis and visualisation of data and information

The scientific innovation as immediate support to a conscious territorial planning: the definition of joint tools of research and monitoring is useful to face common problems

Main contents:

• VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTIdentification and assesment of main stressors and potential impacts. Creation of vulnerability and risk maps for the partner lake regiuons

• EMERGING RISKImpacts on lake idrology and water quality, analisys of new invasive species, describe shore zone functionality status using SFI index

VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT Improving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake ecosystems

Valutazione della vulnerabilità

Analisi dei principali fattori di rischio

Main contents:

• CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SIMULATION AND EXPLORATIONClimate simulations runs for the alpine area with CLM )10 km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC

• SCENARIO IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION/MITIGATION STRATEGIESImpacts of climate changes scenarios, mitigation and adaptation measures and strategies, multicriteria (environmental, economic, social, etc,) assesment, defining the environmental impact of different scenarios

Maps of simulation on climate changing and state of

water

VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (second part)

Scenari di cambiamento climatico simulazione ed esplorazione

Valutazione degli scenari di impatto e delle strategie di adattamento e mitigazione

• The role of agriculture in a climate change scenarius (A)

• Status and future dynamics of new species (H)

• Cyanobacteria and water quality: the effects on tourism and potable water (I)

• Sludge permeable and heavy metals (PL)

PILOT ACTIONS Using advanced case studies to support the definition of the common approach

Enhancing the differences in every lake to agree on a common transnational approach for protection

Il ruolo dell’agricoltura

Status e dinamiche delle nuove specie

Cianobatteri e qualità dell’acqua

Fanghi permeabili e metalli pesanti

Main contents:• Development of guidelines for lake

and basin management

• Building and management governance platform (stakeholder participation)

JOINT TRANSNATIONAL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT A NEW MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE (WP6)Mitigation and adaptation strategy to support decision makers and environmental governance

A platform at local and international level based on innovative and European governance models

The GOVERNANCE WP

Sviluppo di linee guida per la gestione dei laghi e dei bacini

Costruzione e gestione di una piattaforma di governance

Data

Decision

Knowledge and understanding

Information

Incr

easi

ng u

tility

Increasing resources and knowledge requirements

Analisy

s and

visual

izatio

n

Modelling

Syntesis and

fore

casting

The EULAKES path

USERS/STAKEHOLDERS- Research scientist- Resources managers – environmental agengies at all

levels- Non governamental organizations- Students and young generations- General pubblic

RESOURCES TO PROTECT• Living resources (biodiversity)• Human health • Habitat protection/preservation• Chemical integrity• Local economy (mainly based on tourism and

agriculture)

The WHO and WHY of EULAKES

- Ecological and human health effects of persistent toxic chemicals

- Non indigenous species invasions, spread, and ecosystems effects;

- Shorezones quantity and quality protection- protection of drinking water intakes from chemical and

microbiological contamination- Eutrophication

The WHAT of EULAKES

•Project funded by the European Territorial Cooperation Central Europe programme

•Budget: 2.910.799 euro

•Period: 1st April 2010 – 31st March 2013

•9 partners from 4 countries are involved

FUNDING

www.eulakes.euI