Post on 10-Sep-2014
description
Profitably Launching Jelly Splash to #1: A Marketing Postmortem
Eric Benjamin SeufertHead of Marketing, Wooga
Who am I?
Who am I?Head of Marketing at Wooga
Who am I?Head of Marketing at Wooga
Freemium Economics
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven Development
Soft Launch Stra
tegy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Le
arned
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Development @ Wooga
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Development @ Wooga
Development @ Wooga
●Inverted pyramid product pipeline
Development @ Wooga
●Inverted pyramid product pipeline●Small teams developing many prototypes
Development @ Wooga
●Inverted pyramid product pipeline●Small teams developing many prototypes●Stop projects early
Development @ Wooga
●Inverted pyramid product pipeline●Small teams developing many prototypes●Stop projects early●2 hits per year
What is Jelly Splash?
What is Jelly Splash?
●Match-3 style puzzle game
What is Jelly Splash?
●Match-3 style puzzle game●Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013
What is Jelly Splash?
●Match-3 style puzzle game●Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013●Launched globally Wednesday, August 21, 2013
What is Jelly Splash?
●Match-3 style puzzle game●Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013●Launched globally Wednesday, August 21, 2013●Peaked at #1 most downloaded (iPhone) in US, FR, DE, BR, NL, IS, ES, NO & others
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven Development
Soft Launch Stra
tegy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Le
arned
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
Marketing for Mobile Games
Marketing for Mobile Games
“I don’t need to run mobile user acquisition. If I make a great game, it will grow on
its own.”
Marketing for Mobile Games
“I need mobile user acquisition because lots of great games are competing for attention from users.”
Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
1. Scale
Marketing for Mobile Games
Goals of Marketing Team:
1. Scale2. Profit
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI = / CTR / IRCPM1000
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI =
Market-based
/ CTR / IRCPM1000
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPI =
Market-based Game dependent
CPM1000 / CTR / IR
Marketing for Mobile Games
CPITAM
Marketing for Mobile Games
How to maximize TAM?
Marketing Starts
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Marketing Starts
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Marketing for Mobile Games
“I don’t need to run mobile user acquisition. If I make a great game, it will grow on
its own.”
Marketing for Mobile GamesWho defines great?
Marketing for Mobile GamesWho defines great?
Marketing for Mobile Games
or
Who defines great?
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)• Market size assessment
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)• Market size assessment• Demographic fit
Marketing for Mobile Games
Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)• Market size assessment• Demographic fit• Targeting
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven
Development
Soft Launch Stra
tegy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Le
arned
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
Data-Driven Development
Analytics
Data-Driven Development
Analytics Experimentation
Data-Driven Development
Analytics Experimentation Iteration
Analytics at Wooga
BI
Product
Gam
e T
eam
1
Gam
e T
eam
2
Gam
e T
eam
3
Analyst Analyst Analyst
} }D
ata
In
frast
ruct
ure
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven Development
Soft Launch
Strategy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Le
arned
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Soft Launch?
Soft Launch?
●Player feedback
Soft Launch?
●Player feedback●Market feedback
Soft Launch?
●Player feedback●Market feedback●Iteration Cycles
Soft Launch?
●Player feedback●Market feedback●Iteration Cycles●Scalability
Length of Soft Launch
Length of Soft Launch
●Metrics targets
Length of Soft Launch
●Metrics targets●Completeness of game
Clash of Clans
2 MonthsCA: June 14, 2012 (Th)US: August 2, 2012 (Th)
*iPhone / Downloaded
Pet Rescue Saga
1 MonthCA: May 16, 2013 (Th)US: June 12, 2013 (Wed)
*iPhone / Downloaded
The Hobbit: KoME
<1 MonthCA: Oct 18, 2012 (Th)US: Nov 8, 2012 (Th)
*iPhone / Downloaded
Boom Beach
Ongoing (5+ mths)CA: Nov 8, 2013 (Fr)AU: Jan 17, 2014 (Fr)
*iPhone / Downloaded
Soft Launch Focus
Soft Launch Focus
●Retention
Soft Launch Focus
●Retention●Virality
Soft Launch Focus
●Retention●Virality
What is Retention?
Retention is the most important metric
Retention is the most important metric●Delight
Retention is the most important metric●Delight●Player Lifetime
The Retention Curve50% Day 1: 37 day total lifetime
The Retention Curve40% Day 1: 30 day total lifetime
Retention is the most important metric●Delight●Player Lifetime●Lifetime Customer Value (LTV)
Calculating LTV“Top Down”• Curve fit monetization
Freemium Economics, Figure 5.13
Calculating LTV: “Top Down”
Calculating LTV“Top Down”• Curve fit monetization
“Bottoms Up”• Retention curve, ARPDAU
Real Retention Rates
Step 1: Plot small sample of real retention rates
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Step 2: Curve fit a power function
Power function
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Step 3: Integrate the power function
Area under the curve
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”
“Segments” are distinct user groups
“Two methods for calculating LTV in a spreadsheet”
LTV Timeline
LTV Timeline
180 Days
LTV Timeline
180 Days• No discounting
LTV Timeline
180 Days• No discounting• Practical for casual game
LTV Timeline
180 Days• No discounting• Practical for casual game
365 Days
LTV Timeline
180 Days• No discounting• Practical for casual game
365 Days• Not a “current asset”
LTV Timeline
180 Days• No discounting• Practical for casual game
365 Days• Not a “current asset”• Better for longer-timeline game
Soft Launch Focus
●Retention●Virality
Why is virality important?
Why is virality important?
Why is virality important?
●Virality compounds user base growth
Defining Virality
Defining Virality
●Nebulous concept
Defining Virality
●Nebulous concept●Quantifying requires assumptions
Calculating Virality
Calculating Virality
●Virality expressed as “k-factor”
Calculating Virality
●Virality expressed as “k-factor”●K-factor: additional users per new user
Calculating Virality
K-factor of 1 = truly viral
Each new user brings additional new user
Freemium Economics, Figure 4.13
Calculating Virality
“Bottoms Up”● Number of invites * invite conversion
Freemium Economics, Figure 7.3
Calculating Virality
“Top Down”● Period-to-period, non-paid growth
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
“Organic”
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
DNU
“Organic”
Paid
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X + 1
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X + 1
“Organic”
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X + 1
“Organic”
Paid
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X + 1
“Organic”
Paid
Viral
Calculating Virality: Top Down
Day X
“Organic”
Paid
Day X + 1
“Organic”
Paid
Viral
Calculating Virality: Top Down
K-factor =Viral Users (Day X + 1)
Paid + Organic (Day X)
Why is Virality important?
Why is Virality important?
Freemium Economics, Figure 8.4
Soft Launch Targets
● LTV
● LTV● CPI
Soft Launch Targets
Soft Launch Targets
● LTV● CPI
Soft Launch Targets
● LTV● CPI
?
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven Development
Soft Launch Stra
tegy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Le
arned
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
Soft Launch
Soft LaunchJune 14, 2013
Soft LaunchJune 14, 2013
2 Networks
Soft LaunchJune 14, 2013
2 Networks• Chartboost
Soft LaunchJune 14, 2013
2 Networks• Chartboost• Facebook
Soft LaunchJune 14, 2013
2 Networks• Chartboost• Facebook
Roughly 2k DNU
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Entered CA App Store
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Entered CA App Store
2K DNU
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch
Entered CA App Store
2K DNU“Ramp up” for Global Launch
Soft Launch
●Strong Virality
Soft Launch
●Strong Virality Average K-factor 92%
Soft Launch
●Strong Virality
●Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Soft Launch
●Strong Virality
●Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Minimum 50% Day 1 Retention
Soft Launch
●Strong Virality
●Strong Retention
Average K-factor 92%
Minimum 50% Day 1 Retention
Soft Launch
CPI (iPhone): $2
Soft Launch
CPI (iPhone): $2
CPI (iPhone): ?
Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
If LTV > $1.04,
Soft Launch
Average K-factor 92%
CPI $2.00
eCPI $1.04
If LTV > $1.04, profit.
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven Development
Soft Launch Stra
tegy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch
Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Le
arned
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
Prototype
Production Begins
First Playable
Soft Launch
Launch
Hit
Development @ Wooga
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04
Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04• Large Total Addressable Market
Global Launch Strategy
• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04• Large Total Addressable Market
or
Ladder Launch
Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns
Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns• Slowly grow user base
Ladder Launch
• Purely profitable campaigns• Slowly grow user base• Unit economics
Trampoline Launch
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI• Aim for chart position
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI• Aim for chart position• Organic installs offset loss
Trampoline Launch
• LTV < CPI• Aim for chart position• Organic installs offset loss• User base economics
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network effects
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network effects
Time Value of Money
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network effects
Time Value of Money
Huge upfront commitment
Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk
Less $ upfront
Easy to update
$ on the table
Market dynamic
Bigger network effects
Time Value of Money
Huge upfront commitment
VaR difficult to evaluate
Effects of Compounding
Effects of Compounding
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
UpfrontPer-period
Effects of Compounding
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
UpfrontPer-period
K-factor: 20%
Effects of Compounding
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
UpfrontPer-period
K-factor: 20%10 Periods
Effects of Compounding
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
UpfrontPer-period
K-factor: 20%10 Periods
“So, Mcfly: Are you In or Out?”
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded / US)
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded / US)
• Assume US CPI of $2
Cost of Trampoline Launch?
• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded / US)
• Assume US CPI of $2• Top Chart Position ~= 20k installs / day
Global Launch Strategy
Top 10
Installs2 66,458
Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)(2) Less organic uplift of 20k
Global Launch Strategy
Top 10 Top 3
Installs2 66,458 113,247
Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00 $226,494.86
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)(2) Less organic uplift of 20k
Global Launch Strategy
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Installs2 66,458 113,247 140,875
Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00 $226,494.86 $281,750.57
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)(2) Less organic uplift of 20k
Global Launch Strategy
K-factor ~= 1.0
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*Adjusted
Top 10
Installs2 33,229
Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00
Global Launch Strategy
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)(2) Less organic uplift of 20k
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*Adjusted
Top 10 Top 3
Installs2 33,229 56,624
Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00 $113,247.43
Global Launch Strategy
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)(2) Less organic uplift of 20k
August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*Adjusted
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Installs2 33,229 56,624 70,438
Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00 $113,247.43 $140,875.14
Global Launch Strategy
(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)(2) Less organic uplift of 20k
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
Nu
mb
er
of
Insta
lls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
Nu
mb
er
of
Insta
lls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
Nu
mb
er
of
Insta
lls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
Nu
mb
er
of
Insta
lls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k70k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Distimo’s estimations looked like this:
Nu
mb
er
of
Insta
lls
App Store Rank
Global Launch Strategy
30k
56k70k
Top 10 Top 3 #1
Global Launch Strategy
Nothing in Freemium Looks Like That.
Global Launch StrategyN
um
ber
of
Insta
lls
App Store Rank
This…
30k
Global Launch StrategyN
um
ber
of
Insta
lls
App Store Rank
…should be this:
30k
Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function
Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function• Rate of price increases is increasing
Global Launch Strategy
• Increasing exponential function• Rate of price increases is increasing• #10 -> #3 -> #1 separated by orders of
magnitude
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
• Target Markets:
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US
Cost1 $200,000
(1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US
Cost1 $200,000
Adj. Cost3 $104,166
(1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE
Cost1 $200,000 $37,600
Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583
(1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR
Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000
Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541
(1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR NL
Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800
Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833
(1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
Global Launch Strategy
Adjusted estimates:
Country US DE FR NL BR
Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800 $15,400
Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833 $8,020
(1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:• 92% k-factor
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:• 92% k-factor• $2 CPI
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:• 92% k-factor• $2 CPI
$150k for launch week
(1) Assumes no featuring
Global Launch Strategy
#1 in 5 Markets1:• 92% k-factor• $2 CPI
$150k for launch weekSet budget to $250k
(1) Assumes no featuring
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven Development
Soft Launch Stra
tegy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Le
arned
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
Global Launch Logistics
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch• 1 country per day
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
23 Networks
Global Launch Logistics
Staggered Launch• 1 country per day
Release game globally on Thursday
23 Networks
“Burst” campaigns in each country
Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook fans)
Global Launch Logistics
“Over-budgeted” by 25%
Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook fans)
Cross-promotion from Wooga titles
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8
Global Burst Schedule
Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8 Wed, 28/8
Burst results
Burst results
●#1 in all target countries1
(1) iPhone / downloaded
Burst results
●#1 in all target countries1
●1MM downloads in 5 days
(1) iPhone / downloaded
Burst results
●#1 in all target countries1
●1MM downloads in 5 days●Top 10 in other key countries
(1) iPhone / downloaded
Post Launch
• Strong retention meant revenue didn’t drop after burst
Post Launch
21/8/13 22/8/13 23/8/13 24/8/13 25/8/13 26/8/13 27/8/13 28/8/13 29/8/13 30/8/13 31/8/13 1/9/13 2/9/13 3/9/13 4/9/13 5/9/13 6/9/13
DNU Daily USD
Presentation Structure
Development @ Wooga
Data-Driven Development
Soft Launch Stra
tegy
Soft Launch Logistics
Global Launch Strategy
Global Launch Logistics
What We Learn
ed
Etc.
Marketing fo
r Mobile
Games
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)• Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone)
What We Learned
• “Bursting” can be profitable
• Organic uplift from chart position:• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)• Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone)
• Most networks overpromised burst-day volume by 20%
What We Learned
• Virality decay
What We Learned
• Virality decay• K-factor decreased to 84% / eCPI increased by
28%
• Increased networks kept CPIs flat
4 Key Take-Aways
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
• Market Analysis
4 Key Take-Aways
• Long Soft Launch
• LTV Estimation
• Market Analysis
• Virality is King Maker
Wooga
http://wooga.com
Questions?
Book Giveaway!
Book Giveaway!
Book Giveaway!In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time?
Book Giveaway!In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger
Book Giveaway!In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger• Rat
Book Giveaway!In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger• Rat• Vulture
Book Giveaway!In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time?
• Tiger• Rat• Vulture• Bat