Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem

Profitably Launching Jelly Splash to #1: A Marketing Postmortem

Eric Benjamin SeufertHead of Marketing, Wooga

Who am I?

Who am I?Head of Marketing at Wooga

Who am I?Head of Marketing at Wooga

Freemium Economics

Presentation Structure

Development @ Wooga

Data-Driven Development

Soft Launch Stra

tegy

Soft Launch Logistics

Global Launch Strategy

Global Launch Logistics

What We Le

arned

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games

Development @ Wooga

Prototype

Development @ Wooga

Prototype

Production Begins

Development @ Wooga

Prototype

Production Begins

First Playable

Development @ Wooga

Prototype

Production Begins

First Playable

Soft Launch

Development @ Wooga

Prototype

Production Begins

First Playable

Soft Launch

Launch

Development @ Wooga

Prototype

Production Begins

First Playable

Soft Launch

Launch

Hit

Development @ Wooga

Development @ Wooga

Development @ Wooga

●Inverted pyramid product pipeline

Development @ Wooga

●Inverted pyramid product pipeline●Small teams developing many prototypes

Development @ Wooga

●Inverted pyramid product pipeline●Small teams developing many prototypes●Stop projects early

Development @ Wooga

●Inverted pyramid product pipeline●Small teams developing many prototypes●Stop projects early●2 hits per year

What is Jelly Splash?


●Match-3 style puzzle game


●Match-3 style puzzle game●Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013


●Match-3 style puzzle game●Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013●Launched globally Wednesday, August 21, 2013


●Match-3 style puzzle game●Soft-launched in Canada June 14, 2013●Launched globally Wednesday, August 21, 2013●Peaked at #1 most downloaded (iPhone) in US, FR, DE, BR, NL, IS, ES, NO & others


Development @ Wooga


Soft Launch Stra

tegy




What We Le

arned

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games

Marketing for Mobile Games


“I don’t need to run mobile user acquisition. If I make a great game, it will grow on

its own.”


“I need mobile user acquisition because lots of great games are competing for attention from users.”


Goals of Marketing Team:



1. Scale



1. Scale2. Profit


CPI = / CTR / IRCPM1000


CPI =

Market-based

/ CTR / IRCPM1000


CPI =

Market-based Game dependent

CPM1000 / CTR / IR


CPITAM


How to maximize TAM?

Marketing Starts

Prototype

Production Begins

First Playable

Soft Launch

Launch

Hit

Development @ Wooga


“I don’t need to run mobile user acquisition. If I make a great game, it will grow on

its own.”

Marketing for Mobile GamesWho defines great?


or

Who defines great?


Maximizing TAM:


Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)


Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)• Market size assessment


Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)• Market size assessment• Demographic fit


Maximizing TAM:(for a given game mechanic)• Market size assessment• Demographic fit• Targeting


Development @ Wooga

Data-Driven

Development

Soft Launch Stra

tegy




What We Le

arned

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games


Analytics


Analytics Experimentation


Analytics Experimentation Iteration

Analytics at Wooga

BI

Product

Gam

e T

eam

1

Gam

e T

eam

2

Gam

e T

eam

3

Analyst Analyst Analyst

} }D

ata

In

frast

ruct

ure


Development @ Wooga


Soft Launch

Strategy




What We Le

arned

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games

Prototype

Production Begins

First Playable

Soft Launch

Launch

Hit

Development @ Wooga

Soft Launch?

Soft Launch?

●Player feedback

Soft Launch?

●Player feedback●Market feedback

Soft Launch?

●Player feedback●Market feedback●Iteration Cycles

Soft Launch?

●Player feedback●Market feedback●Iteration Cycles●Scalability

Length of Soft Launch


●Metrics targets


●Metrics targets●Completeness of game

Clash of Clans

2 MonthsCA: June 14, 2012 (Th)US: August 2, 2012 (Th)

*iPhone / Downloaded

Pet Rescue Saga

1 MonthCA: May 16, 2013 (Th)US: June 12, 2013 (Wed)


The Hobbit: KoME

<1 MonthCA: Oct 18, 2012 (Th)US: Nov 8, 2012 (Th)


Boom Beach

Ongoing (5+ mths)CA: Nov 8, 2013 (Fr)AU: Jan 17, 2014 (Fr)


Soft Launch Focus

Soft Launch Focus

●Retention

Soft Launch Focus

●Retention●Virality

What is Retention?

Retention is the most important metric

Retention is the most important metric●Delight

Retention is the most important metric●Delight●Player Lifetime

The Retention Curve50% Day 1: 37 day total lifetime

The Retention Curve40% Day 1: 30 day total lifetime

Retention is the most important metric●Delight●Player Lifetime●Lifetime Customer Value (LTV)

Calculating LTV“Top Down”• Curve fit monetization

Freemium Economics, Figure 5.13

Calculating LTV: “Top Down”

Calculating LTV“Top Down”• Curve fit monetization

“Bottoms Up”• Retention curve, ARPDAU

Real Retention Rates

Step 1: Plot small sample of real retention rates

Calculating LTV: “Bottoms Up”

Step 2: Curve fit a power function

Power function


Step 3: Integrate the power function

Area under the curve



“Segments” are distinct user groups

“Two methods for calculating LTV in a spreadsheet”

LTV Timeline

LTV Timeline

180 Days

LTV Timeline

180 Days• No discounting

LTV Timeline

180 Days• No discounting• Practical for casual game

LTV Timeline


365 Days

LTV Timeline


365 Days• Not a “current asset”

LTV Timeline


365 Days• Not a “current asset”• Better for longer-timeline game

Soft Launch Focus

●Retention●Virality

Why is virality important?

Why is virality important?

●Virality compounds user base growth

Defining Virality

Defining Virality

●Nebulous concept

Defining Virality

●Nebulous concept●Quantifying requires assumptions

Calculating Virality


●Virality expressed as “k-factor”


●Virality expressed as “k-factor”●K-factor: additional users per new user


K-factor of 1 = truly viral

Each new user brings additional new user



“Bottoms Up”● Number of invites * invite conversion



“Top Down”● Period-to-period, non-paid growth

Calculating Virality: Top Down

Day X

DNU


Day X

DNU

“Organic”


Day X

DNU

“Organic”

Paid


Day X

“Organic”

Paid

Day X + 1


Day X

“Organic”

Paid

Day X + 1

“Organic”


Day X

“Organic”

Paid

Day X + 1

“Organic”

Paid


Day X

“Organic”

Paid

Day X + 1

“Organic”

Paid

Viral


K-factor =Viral Users (Day X + 1)

Paid + Organic (Day X)

Why is Virality important?

Soft Launch Targets

● LTV

● LTV● CPI

Soft Launch Targets

Soft Launch Targets

● LTV● CPI

Soft Launch Targets

● LTV● CPI

?


Development @ Wooga


Soft Launch Stra

tegy




What We Le

arned

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games

Soft Launch

Soft LaunchJune 14, 2013


2 Networks


2 Networks• Chartboost


2 Networks• Chartboost• Facebook


2 Networks• Chartboost• Facebook

Roughly 2k DNU

Jelly Splash CA Soft Launch

Entered CA App Store



2K DNU




2K DNU“Ramp up” for Global Launch

Soft Launch

●Strong Virality

Soft Launch

●Strong Virality Average K-factor 92%

Soft Launch

●Strong Virality

●Strong Retention

Average K-factor 92%

Soft Launch

●Strong Virality

●Strong Retention


Minimum 50% Day 1 Retention

Soft Launch

CPI (iPhone): $2

Soft Launch

CPI (iPhone): $2

CPI (iPhone): ?

Soft Launch


CPI $2.00

eCPI $1.04

Soft Launch


CPI $2.00

eCPI $1.04

If LTV > $1.04,

Soft Launch


CPI $2.00

eCPI $1.04

If LTV > $1.04, profit.


Development @ Wooga


Soft Launch Stra

tegy


Global Launch

Strategy


What We Le

arned

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games

Prototype

Production Begins

First Playable

Soft Launch

Launch

Hit

Development @ Wooga


• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04


• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04• Large Total Addressable Market


• Per-unit Marketing profitable at $1.04• Large Total Addressable Market

or

Ladder Launch

Ladder Launch

• Purely profitable campaigns

Ladder Launch

• Purely profitable campaigns• Slowly grow user base

Ladder Launch

• Purely profitable campaigns• Slowly grow user base• Unit economics

Trampoline Launch

Trampoline Launch

• LTV < CPI

Trampoline Launch

• LTV < CPI• Aim for chart position

Trampoline Launch

• LTV < CPI• Aim for chart position• Organic installs offset loss

Trampoline Launch

• LTV < CPI• Aim for chart position• Organic installs offset loss• User base economics

Pros Cons Pros ConsNo launch risk


Less $ upfront


Less $ upfront

Easy to update


Less $ upfront

Easy to update

$ on the table


Less $ upfront

Easy to update

$ on the table

Market dynamic


Less $ upfront

Easy to update

$ on the table

Market dynamic

Bigger network effects


Less $ upfront

Easy to update

$ on the table

Market dynamic


Time Value of Money


Less $ upfront

Easy to update

$ on the table

Market dynamic


Time Value of Money

Huge upfront commitment


Less $ upfront

Easy to update

$ on the table

Market dynamic


Time Value of Money

Huge upfront commitment

VaR difficult to evaluate

Effects of Compounding


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

UpfrontPer-period


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

UpfrontPer-period

K-factor: 20%


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

UpfrontPer-period

K-factor: 20%10 Periods

“So, Mcfly: Are you In or Out?”

Cost of Trampoline Launch?


• Goal of #1 chart position (iPhone / Downloaded / US)



• Assume US CPI of $2



• Assume US CPI of $2• Top Chart Position ~= 20k installs / day


Top 10

Installs2 66,458

Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00

August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)1

(1) Source: Distimo, Week 26 2013 (installs are daily)(2) Less organic uplift of 20k


Top 10 Top 3

Installs2 66,458 113,247

Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00 $226,494.86





Top 10 Top 3 #1

Installs2 66,458 113,247 140,875

Cost (CPI = $2) $132,916.00 $226,494.86 $281,750.57



K-factor ~= 1.0

August 2013, App Store (US, iPhone)*Adjusted

Top 10

Installs2 33,229

Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00




Top 10 Top 3

Installs2 33,229 56,624

Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00 $113,247.43




Top 10 Top 3 #1

Installs2 33,229 56,624 70,438

Cost (CPI = $2) $66,458.00 $113,247.43 $140,875.14



Distimo’s estimations looked like this:

Nu

mb

er

of

Insta

lls

App Store Rank


Top 10 Top 3 #1


Nu

mb

er

of

Insta

lls

App Store Rank


30k

Top 10 Top 3 #1


Nu

mb

er

of

Insta

lls

App Store Rank


30k

56k

Top 10 Top 3 #1


Nu

mb

er

of

Insta

lls

App Store Rank


30k

56k70k

Top 10 Top 3 #1


Nothing in Freemium Looks Like That.

Global Launch StrategyN

um

ber

of

Insta

lls

App Store Rank

This…

30k

Global Launch StrategyN

um

ber

of

Insta

lls

App Store Rank

…should be this:

30k


• Increasing exponential function


• Increasing exponential function• Rate of price increases is increasing


• Increasing exponential function• Rate of price increases is increasing• #10 -> #3 -> #1 separated by orders of

magnitude


• Target Markets:


Adjusted estimates:

Country US

Cost1 $200,000

(1) iPhone (2) Based on Distimo estimates, Week 26 2013 (installs here are daily), less 20k organic uplift(3) CPI adjusted by k-factor


Adjusted estimates:

Country US

Cost1 $200,000

Adj. Cost3 $104,166



Adjusted estimates:

Country US DE

Cost1 $200,000 $37,600

Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583



Adjusted estimates:

Country US DE FR

Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000

Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541



Adjusted estimates:

Country US DE FR NL

Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800

Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833



Adjusted estimates:

Country US DE FR NL BR

Cost1 $200,000 $37,600 $26,000 $20,800 $15,400

Adj. Cost3 $104,166 $19,583 $13,541 $10,833 $8,020



#1 in 5 Markets1:

(1) Assumes no featuring


#1 in 5 Markets1:• 92% k-factor



#1 in 5 Markets1:• 92% k-factor• $2 CPI




$150k for launch week




$150k for launch weekSet budget to $250k



Development @ Wooga


Soft Launch Stra

tegy




What We Le

arned

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games


Staggered Launch


Staggered Launch• 1 country per day



Release game globally on Thursday




23 Networks




23 Networks

“Burst” campaigns in each country


“Over-budgeted” by 25%



Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook fans)



Social media outreach (Wooga has >20MM Facebook fans)

Cross-promotion from Wooga titles

Global Burst Schedule

Fri, 23/8


Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8


Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8


Fri, 23/8 Sat, 24/8 Sun, 25/8 Wed, 28/8

Burst results

Burst results

●#1 in all target countries1

(1) iPhone / downloaded

Burst results


●1MM downloads in 5 days


Burst results


●1MM downloads in 5 days●Top 10 in other key countries


Post Launch

• Strong retention meant revenue didn’t drop after burst

Post Launch

21/8/13 22/8/13 23/8/13 24/8/13 25/8/13 26/8/13 27/8/13 28/8/13 29/8/13 30/8/13 31/8/13 1/9/13 2/9/13 3/9/13 4/9/13 5/9/13 6/9/13

DNU Daily USD


Development @ Wooga


Soft Launch Stra

tegy




What We Learn

ed

Etc.

Marketing fo

r Mobile

Games

What We Learned

• “Bursting” can be profitable

What We Learned


• Organic uplift from chart position:

What We Learned


• Organic uplift from chart position:• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)

What We Learned


• Organic uplift from chart position:• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)• Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone)

What We Learned


• Organic uplift from chart position:• Top 10 += 30k DNU (US, iPhone)• Top 3 += 50k DNU (US, iPhone)

• Most networks overpromised burst-day volume by 20%

What We Learned

• Virality decay

What We Learned

• Virality decay• K-factor decreased to 84% / eCPI increased by

28%

• Increased networks kept CPIs flat

4 Key Take-Aways

4 Key Take-Aways

• Long Soft Launch

4 Key Take-Aways


• LTV Estimation

4 Key Take-Aways


• LTV Estimation

• Market Analysis

4 Key Take-Aways


• LTV Estimation

• Market Analysis

• Virality is King Maker

Wooga

http://wooga.com

Questions?

Book Giveaway!

Book Giveaway!In The Legend of Zelda: A link to the Past, what form does Ganon take after being defeated the 2nd time?


• Tiger


• Tiger• Rat


• Tiger• Rat• Vulture


• Tiger• Rat• Vulture• Bat

Eric Seufert, GDC 2014: Profitably launching Jelly Splash to #1, a marketing postmortem

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