Environmental Public Health RisksLead Poisoning, Arsenic in Well Water, Extreme Heat

Andrew Smith, SM, ScDState ToxicologistE2Tech Meeting

November 19, 2015

Childhood Lead Poisoning

2Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention

1-in-25

Rates of Childhood Lead PoisoningRates are Declining

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Estimated Percent of Screened Children with a Blood Lead Level of ≥ 5 µg/dL - 2003-2014

Perc

ent

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

4 4.5

5 5.5

6 6.5

7 7.5

8 8.5

9 9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

17.5

18

18.5

19

19.5

20

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800Year 2012

Blood Lead Level (ug/dL)

Num

ber o

f Chi

ldre

n

400+ Children Each Year

Burden of Childhood Lead Poisoning1600+ Children with an eBLL

No Safe LevelIQ deficits at low blood lead levels

5

Lanphear et al., VOLUME 113 | NUMBER 7 | July 2005 • Environmental Health Perspectives

J. Schwartz, VOLUME 66| 1995 • Environmental Research

Lead IQ Income Earnings

Social Cost of Childhood Lead PoisoningEffect of Reduced IQ on Future Earnings

Social Cost of Childhood Lead PoisoningFor Each Birth Cohort ……

$21 - $145 million

in reduced future earnings for 1 year olds born in

2010 and tested for blood lead

~ $42 - $290 million full birth cohort

Arsenic in Well WaterIs your well water safe to drink?

1-in-10

Arsenic in Well WaterIs your well water safe to drink?

4530150

Source: Maine Tracking Network: https://data.mainepublichealth.gov/tracking/

Arsenic and CancerBladder and Lung

1-in-1000

Arsenic and Heart DiseaseCoronary Heart Disease

Arsenic and Intellectual FunctionBangladesh

Population ExposureSome Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations

• 355,000 Maine households on private wells

• About 887,500 people

• 12% have As > 10 ug/L

• 106,500 people with water As > 10 ug/dL

• 5,300 children less than 6 years

Extreme Heat EventIt’s Rare

1911: Last extreme heat event in Maine with more than 5 days of temperatures near or above 100.

Courtesy of Dick Shaw

Extreme Heat EventBut, What is Extreme?

Extreme Heat EventIncreased Mortality with Heat

Risk increases by 7.6% (95% CI: 3.6, 11.8) on days with max HI of 95°F (as compared to 75°F)

Source: ME-CDC: Preliminary data – Unpublished.

Predicted Excess DeathsStatewide for Maine

HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD 95 100 105

Excess deaths per day (compared to 75F) 5 7 9

Excess ED visits per day (compared to 75F) 66 99 116

On average, about 30 deaths per day

Source: ME-CDC: Preliminary data – Unpublished.

Changing Climate?2056 Projections

Source: University of Maine – Climate Change Institute: WRF Predictions using IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Forcing

More High Heat Days?2056 Projections

Source: University of Maine – Climate Change Institute: WRF Predictions using IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Forcing

VulnerabilityWe’re the 3rd Oldest State without much AC

In Maine, 53% households report having AC; most are window units (Source: Maine Tracking Network).

If Questions

21

Andrew Smith, SM, ScDState Toxicologist

Tel: (207) 287-5189Email: andy.e.smith@maine.gov