Environmental Public Health Risks Lead Poisoning, Arsenic in Well Water, Extreme Heat Andrew Smith,...
21
Environmental Public Health Risks Lead Poisoning, Arsenic in Well Water, Extreme Heat Andrew Smith, SM, ScD State Toxicologist E2Tech Meeting November 19, 2015
-
Upload
charleen-cameron -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
2
Transcript of Environmental Public Health Risks Lead Poisoning, Arsenic in Well Water, Extreme Heat Andrew Smith,...
Environmental Public Health RisksLead Poisoning, Arsenic in Well Water, Extreme Heat
Andrew Smith, SM, ScDState ToxicologistE2Tech Meeting
November 19, 2015
Childhood Lead Poisoning
2Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention
1-in-25
Rates of Childhood Lead PoisoningRates are Declining
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Estimated Percent of Screened Children with a Blood Lead Level of ≥ 5 µg/dL - 2003-2014
Perc
ent
0 0.5
1 1.5
2 2.5
3 3.5
4 4.5
5 5.5
6 6.5
7 7.5
8 8.5
9 9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800Year 2012
Blood Lead Level (ug/dL)
Num
ber o
f Chi
ldre
n
400+ Children Each Year
Burden of Childhood Lead Poisoning1600+ Children with an eBLL
No Safe LevelIQ deficits at low blood lead levels
5
Lanphear et al., VOLUME 113 | NUMBER 7 | July 2005 • Environmental Health Perspectives
J. Schwartz, VOLUME 66| 1995 • Environmental Research
Lead IQ Income Earnings
Social Cost of Childhood Lead PoisoningEffect of Reduced IQ on Future Earnings
Social Cost of Childhood Lead PoisoningFor Each Birth Cohort ……
$21 - $145 million
in reduced future earnings for 1 year olds born in
2010 and tested for blood lead
~ $42 - $290 million full birth cohort
Arsenic in Well WaterIs your well water safe to drink?
1-in-10
Arsenic in Well WaterIs your well water safe to drink?
4530150
Source: Maine Tracking Network: https://data.mainepublichealth.gov/tracking/
Arsenic and CancerBladder and Lung
1-in-1000
Arsenic and Heart DiseaseCoronary Heart Disease
Arsenic and Intellectual FunctionBangladesh
Population ExposureSome Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations
• 355,000 Maine households on private wells
• About 887,500 people
• 12% have As > 10 ug/L
• 106,500 people with water As > 10 ug/dL
• 5,300 children less than 6 years
Extreme Heat EventIt’s Rare
1911: Last extreme heat event in Maine with more than 5 days of temperatures near or above 100.
Courtesy of Dick Shaw
Extreme Heat EventBut, What is Extreme?
Extreme Heat EventIncreased Mortality with Heat
Risk increases by 7.6% (95% CI: 3.6, 11.8) on days with max HI of 95°F (as compared to 75°F)
Source: ME-CDC: Preliminary data – Unpublished.
Predicted Excess DeathsStatewide for Maine
HEAT INDEX THRESHOLD 95 100 105
Excess deaths per day (compared to 75F) 5 7 9
Excess ED visits per day (compared to 75F) 66 99 116
On average, about 30 deaths per day
Source: ME-CDC: Preliminary data – Unpublished.
Changing Climate?2056 Projections
Source: University of Maine – Climate Change Institute: WRF Predictions using IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Forcing
More High Heat Days?2056 Projections
Source: University of Maine – Climate Change Institute: WRF Predictions using IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 Forcing
VulnerabilityWe’re the 3rd Oldest State without much AC
In Maine, 53% households report having AC; most are window units (Source: Maine Tracking Network).
