ENERGY CONNECTIVITY IN SOUTH ASIA: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

SANJAY KUMARExecutive Dircetor, Climate Parliament

sanjay@climateparl.net

SOUTH ASIA: A REGION OF HIGH POVERTY, BUT STABLE GROWTH

NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF POOR PEOPLE

Electrification Rate

Mil. People without Electric

HVDC Links & Interconnections

SEASONAL COMPLEMENTARITY IN POWER SYSTEMS IN SOUTH ASIA – MONTHLY ELECTRICITY LOAD PROFILES ACROSS SOUTH ASIAN GRIDSTIMILSINA ET AL 2015

BASELINE INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

CUMULATIVE CHANGE IN TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY RELATIVE TO REGIONAL COOPERATION AND TRADE OVER THE 2015-2040 PERIOD, BY COUNTRY (GW)

Cumulative Change In Total Installed Capacity Relative To Baseline With RegionalCooperation And Trade Over The 2015-2040 Period, By Type Of Generation Technology (GW)

Change In Cumulative Costs From The Baseline Due To Regional Trade Over The 2015- 2040 Period (Billion US$)

PERCENTAGE SHARE OF FUEL (BY TYPE) AND CHANGES

Type of Fuel Baseline Share in Total Installed Capacity

Change with Regional trade at fixed Capital Cost

Change with trade @ lower Capital Cost **

Diesel 0.6% 0% 0%

Gas 5.7% -15.4% -18.8%

Hydro 15.9% 42.1% 42.2%

Solar 2.3% 0% 98.3%

Coal 54.3% -9.4% -11.4%

Wind 10.3% -5.9% 26%

Combined Cycle 5.1% 6.2% 4.7%

Biomass 2.2% 0% 0%

Nuclear 3.4% 0% 0%** Baseline Capital Cost of Solar and Wind plants respectively US$ 2200/Kw and US$ 1900/Kw.

Reduction in cost as per IEA estimate of 32% in Solar and 24% in Wind by 2020

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN ESTIMATED DISCOUNTED COSTS DURING 2015-40 FROM BASELINE

Regional Trade at Fixed Capital Costs

Regional Trade at Reduced Capital Costs of Solar , Wind

Total Investment (Generation + Transmission/ Distribution)

3.5% 5.1%

Total Fuel Cost -8.7% -11.9%

Total Electric Supply Cost -4.8% -6.5%

ANNUAL SOLAR PERFORMANCE MAPANNUAL SOLAR PERFORMANCE MAP

SOLAR IRRIGATION PUMP PROGRAMME - INDIA

THE BIG PICTURE:Needs Political Mobilisation on Sharing Resources …

… OVER SIX TIME ZONES IN SOUTH ASIA ALONE,

…....... and, Institutional Capacity Building

Progress from Bilateral trade agreements to a Multi-lateral Trade Institution

EstablishRegional Power Market Build upon the experiences of the 2 power exchanges (IEX and PEI)

Thank You for Kind Attention!