Post on 24-Jul-2020
Electric Vehicle Trends and Outlook
June 6th, 2018
Colin McKerracherHead of Advanced TransportBloomberg New Energy Finance
1 June 6, 2018
Global passenger EV sales
122206 289
448
695
1,091
1,592
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e
Thousand units
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
2 June 6, 2018
Global passenger EV sales by type
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
54 107 159 263408
701995
68 99 129185
287
390
597
122206
289448
695
1,091
1,592
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e
Thousand units
Battery electric Plug-in hybrid
45%
52% 55% 53% 59% 64% 62%55%
48% 45% 47% 41% 36% 38%
Share of total new EV sales
3 June 6, 2018
Global passenger EV sales
114283
533754
96182
209
280
376
57 100 121122
170
212
35049
8917
122206
289448
695
1,091
1,592
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e
Thousand units
China Europe North America Japan South Korea RoWSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
4 June 6, 2018
Year Country
2014
Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales
5 June 6, 2018
Year Country
2014
2015
Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales
6 June 6, 2018
Year Country
2014
2015
2016
Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales
7 June 6, 2018
Year Country
2014
2015
2016
2017
Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales
8 June 6, 2018
EV share of total new car sales
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Excludes China commercial vehicles and low speed EVs.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e
%
China
Europe
NorthAmericaJapan
9 June 6, 2018
Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
19.3 22.0 23.4 24.3 27.5 28 28
0.5 2
7
19.322.0
23.5 24.628.0
30
35
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020e 2025eInternal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV)
Millions ofvehicles sold
China’s vehicle sales target in the 2025 auto plan
10 June 6, 2018
Image: Getty Images
11 June 6, 2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: The 2025 CO2 emissions target is 15% lower than the industry-wide average target of 2021 based on the WLTP cycle; the numerical value for the 2025 industry-wide target is 103 gCO2/km; the share of diesel vehicles in new sales is constant at 2015 levels or drops by 40% with respect to that year.
Share of electric vehicles needed to meet the 2025 CO2 emissions target
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
EV share of new vehicle sales
PHEV
BEV
12 June 6, 2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines, press releases from automakers
The number of EV models is rising fast
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Number of EV models available globally
Fuel cellPlug-in hybridBattery electric
13 June 6, 2018
Largest sources of lithium-ion battery demand over time
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GWh/year
Consumer electronics
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Avicenne, Brodd; Buchmann (2003), Takashita (2007)
14 June 6, 2018
Largest sources of lithium-ion battery demand over time
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GWh/year
Electric vehiclesConsumer electronics
2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Avicenne, Brodd; Buchmann (2003), Takashita (2007)
15 June 6, 2018
Largest sources of lithium-ion battery demand over time
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GWh/year
Electric vehiclesConsumer electronics
2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Avicenne, Brodd; Buchmann (2003), Takashita (2007)
16 June 6, 2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Pack level pricing. Weighted average of BEV and PHEV packs
BNEF EV lithium-ion battery pack price survey results
1,000
800
642599
540
350273
209
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Battery pack price ($/kWh)
20%
20%
7% 10%35%
22%24%
17 June 6, 2018
Average vehicle range is rising
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus Electric
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Range (miles)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, respective companies
18 June 6, 2018
Average vehicle range is rising
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus Electric
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Range (miles)
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus Electric
Honda Fit
Fiat 500e
Renault Zoe ZE
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Tesla Model X
Hyundai Ioniq
Chevy Bolt
Renault Zoe ZE Gen II
Tesla Model 3
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Range (miles)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, respective companies
19 June 6, 2018
Average vehicle range is rising
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus Electric
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Range (miles)
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus Electric
Honda Fit
Fiat 500e
Renault Zoe ZE
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Tesla Model X
Hyundai Ioniq
Chevy Bolt
Renault Zoe ZE Gen II
Tesla Model 3
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Range (miles)
Nissan Leaf
Ford Focus Electric
Honda Fit
Fiat 500e
Renault Zoe ZE
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Tesla Model X
Hyundai Ioniq
Chevy Bolt
Renault Zoe ZE Gen II
Tesla Model 3
Audi e-tron
Porsche Mission E
VW Budd-3
Mercedes EQC
BMW Mini
Audi e-tron sportback
Polestar 2
VW I.D. Neo
Ford Mach 1
VW I.D. Crozz
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Range (miles)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, respective companies
20 June 6, 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
$/kWh
Observedprice
18%learningrate
2025 implied price: $96/kWh
2030 implied price: $70/kWh
Segment U.S. EUSmall 2027 2028Medium 2025 2024Large 2026 2025SUV** 2024 2026
EVs reach price parity with ICEs in the mid-2020s
21 June 6, 2018
The race is on
Automaker 2025 sales target
25%
20%
100%
100%
Automaker EV model target (year)
20 full EVs (2023)
10 full EVs (early 2020s)
16 full EVs (early 2020s)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, respective companies
22 June 6, 2018
BNEF’s 2018 EV Outlook – Passenger cars
3%11%
28%
43%55%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ICE
BEV
PHEVsales
All EVs% ofsales
million vehicles
Global annual light duty vehicle sales
23 June 6, 2018
BNEF’s 2018 EV Outlook – passenger cars
3%11%
28%
43%55%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ICE
BEV
PHEVsales
All EVs% ofsales
million vehicles
1% 3%9%
20%33%
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ICE
BEV
PHEVfleet
All EVs% offleet
million cars on the road
Global annual light duty vehicle sales Global light duty vehicle fleet
24 June 6, 2018
BNEF’s 2018 EV Outlook – passenger cars
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
China
Europe
US
Japan
Rest of theWorldIndia
EV % of new car sales
Short term
25 June 6, 2018
BNEF’s 2018 EV Outlook – passenger cars
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%
10%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
China
Europe
US
Japan
Rest of theWorldIndia
EV % of new car sales
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Europe
US
Japan
China
Rest of theWorldIndia
EV % of new car sales
Short term Long term
26 June 6, 2018
Consensus views on EV adoption are rising – 2015/16
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million EVs
BNEF – 2016
BP – 2016
Exxon – 2016
OPEC – 2015
IEA – 2016
27 June 6, 2018
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
BNEF – 2018
BNEF – 2017
BNEF – 2016
BP – 2018
BP – 2017
BP – 2016
ExxonMobil – 2018
ExxonMobil – 2017
ExxonMobil – 2016
OPEC – 2017
OPEC – 2016
OPEC – 2015
IEA – 2018
IEA – 2017
IEA – 2016
Consensus views on EV adoption are rising – 2018
million EVs
28 June 6, 2018
What could derail global EV sales growth?
29 June 6, 2018
What could derail global EV sales growth?
Area Likelihood Impact
Slowdown in lithium-ion battery price declines Medium High
30 June 6, 2018
Cobalt spot price - Shanghai Lithium hydroxide price - Asia
Battery material prices are increasing
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
2014 2015 2016 2018
$ / metric ton
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
95,000
2014 2015 2016 2018
$ / metric ton
Source: Bloomberg
31 June 6, 2018
What could derail global EV sales growth?
Area Likelihood Impact
Slowdown in lithium-ion battery price declines Medium High
Major technology failure Low High
32 June 6, 2018
What could derail global EV sales growth?
Area Likelihood Impact
Slowdown in lithium-ion battery price declines Medium High
Major technology failure Low High
Oil prices fall further Medium Low
33 June 6, 2018
What could derail global EV sales growth?
Area Likelihood Impact
Slowdown in lithium-ion battery price declines Medium High
Major technology failure Low High
Oil prices fall further Medium Low
Acute shortage of charging infrastructure Medium Medium
34 June 6, 2018
EV charging infrastructure
30,200
102,100143,200 152,400
237,600
377,200
581,900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of public EV charging points installed globally
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Image: CHAdeMO, Tesla, Wikipedia, Setec Power
Competing DC fast charging standards
CHAdeMO Combo
China GB/T Tesla
35 June 6, 2018
EV charging infrastructure
30,200
102,100143,200 152,400
237,600
377,200
581,900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Number of public EV charging points installed globally
Data source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Image: The Washington Post
Challenges for high-rise charging
36 June 6, 2018
EV charging infrastructure
30,200
102,100143,200 152,400
237,600
377,200
581,900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Data source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Image: imgur
Number of public EV charging points installed globally
37 June 6, 2018
What could derail global EV sales growth?
Area Likelihood Impact
Slowdown in lithium-ion battery price declines Medium High
Major technology failure Low High
Oil prices fall further Medium Low
Acute shortage of charging infrastructure Medium Medium
Big policy changes in the EU, U.S. or China Medium High
38 June 6, 2018
What could derail global EV sales growth?
Area Likelihood Impact
Slowdown in lithium-ion battery price declines Medium High
Major technology failure Low High
Oil prices fall further Medium Low
Acute shortage of charging infrastructure Medium Medium
Big policy changes in the EU, U.S. or China Medium High
Lack of consumer interest Medium High
39 June 6, 2018
Image: Tata
Consumer tastes are still hard to predict
The Economic Times, 11 January 2008
The Guardian, 11 January 2008
Tata Nano, launched 2008
40 June 6, 2018
Consumer tastes are still hard to predict
Tata Nano, launched 2008
The Economic Times, 22 April 2017
Livemint.com, 4 April 2018
Image: Tata
41 June 6, 2018
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines
Lessons from Norway?
1% 1%3%
6%
13%
23%
29%
39%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EV share of sales Four years to get from 6% to 39%
42 June 6, 2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance., CAAM, Marklines
Lithium-ion battery demand in 2017
Up next: buses
Global passenger EVs
30.6 GWh
China electric buses
12.5 GWh
43 June 6, 2018
Up next: buses
Image: BYD
44 June 6, 2018
Source; Bloomberg New Energy Finance , Daimler, Fuso, Tesla
Up next: trucks?
45 June 6, 2018
Up next: marine?
Image: Fjord Norway
46 June 6, 2018
Thank you!
Colin McKerracher
@colinmckerrache
cmckerracher@bloomberg.net
47 June 6, 2018
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