Post on 14-Apr-2018
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Effects of Future Emissions and a
Changed Climate on Urban Air
Quality
Mark Z. Jacobson Stanford UniversityCo-contributor David G. Streets Argonne Nat. Lab.
EPA RD 83337101-0
EPA Workshop: Impacts of Climate Change on Air
Quality in the Pacific Southwest
San Francisco, California
Oct. 11, 2007
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Effects of Future Anth. Emissions on
Natural Emissions and Air QualityClimate-Dependent Natural Emissions Treated
Lightning NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, CO, HO2, H2O2Sea spray Na, Ca, Mg, K, Cl, S, Br, N
Ocean bacteriaPhytoplankton DMS
Soil dust
Vegetation isoprene, monoterpenes, NMVOC
Soil NOx
PollenSpores
Land bacteria
Natural fire and volcanic gas and particle emissions
Photosynthesis, cellular respiration, soil respiration CO2
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2030 A1B CO/BC Growth Factors
(B1 also derived)
D.G. Streets
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CanadaUSA
CentralAmerica
SouthAmerica
NorthernAfrica
WesternAfrica
EasternAfrica
SouthernAfrica
OECDEurope
EasternEurope
FormerUSSR
MiddleEast
SouthAsia
EastAsia
SoutheastAsia
OceaniaJapanWorld
GrowthFac
tor
Carbon monoxide
Black carbon
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Differences 2002-2030
Under A1B and B1 Scenarios
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Differences 2002-2030
Under A1B and B1 Scenarios
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Differences 2002-2030
Under A1B and B1 Scenarios
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Massachusetts et al. v. EPA
Supreme Court Ruling April 2, 2007: CO2 can be regulated
(b) The harms associated with climate change are serious andwell recognized. The Governments own objective assessment ofthe relevant science and a strong consensus among qualified
experts indicate that global warming threatens, inter alia, aprecipitate rise in sea levels, severe and irreversible changes tonatural ecosystems, a significant reduction in winter snowpackwith direct and important economic consequences, and increasesin the spread of disease and the ferocity of weather events.
However, the ruling does not require the regulation of CO2 and nostudy so far has demonstrated, by cause and effect, that CO2 itselfharms health through air pollution (many studies have linkedwarmer temperatures to ozone, but none has isolated CO2s effector calculated health impacts of ozone or PM2.5).
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How Causal Link Between CO2 and
Health was Determined1. An exact numerical solutions to photochemistry in a box model
was used to establish the relationships between (a) water vapor
and ozone and (b) temperature and ozone.
2. 3-D Nested global-regional simulations over the U.S. were used
to show by cause-and-effect whether CO2 alone increases air
temperatures, whether the temperatures increase water vapor
and atmospheric stability, and how all three parameters affect
ozone, particulate matter, and carcinogens.
3. Population and health-statistics data were combined with the
concentration changes to determine the net effect of CO2 on air
pollution mortality, hospitalization, asthma, and cancer.
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Increases in H2O and T Both
Increase O3 with Increasing O3
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04
Ozonemixingratio(ppbv)
Water vapor mixing ratio (fraction)
NMOG=235, NOx=45
NMOG=500, NOx=150
NMOG=120, NOx=20
NMOG=60, NOx=13
NMOG=50, NOx=4
NMOG=15, NOx=0.7NMOG=30, NO
x=30
NMOG=350, NOx=100
With increasing water vapor,
Hi NOx: NO+HO2-->NO2+OH fast, increasing NO2:NO, O3
Lo NOx: 2HO2 -H2O->H2O2 fast; NO2 lost to orgnit, decr. NO2:NO, O3
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Causal Effect of CO2 on Mortality
Global-regional nested simulations:CO2 alone increases T, H2O, O3, PM2.5
U.S. Total deaths/yr per 1K +1000 (350-1800)40% due to ozone; 60% due to PM2.5
World Total deaths/yr per 1K +21,600 (7400-39,000)
Temperature Water vapor Ozone
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Reduced Upper-Trop/Lower Strat O3due to Higher H
2O, Lower T there
From CO2
-1 0 1
200
400
600
800
1000
a.ii) ! Temperature (K)
Pressure
(hPa)
Data
Model
8.04
8.045
8.05
8.055
8.06
8.065
8.07
2 10-6 6 10-6 1 10-5 1.4 10-5
Ozonemixingratio(ppmv
)
b) Water vapor mixing ratio (fraction)
220.05 K
Stratosphere (25 km)NMOG = 0 ppbv, NOx
= 3 ppbv
221.55 K
0 0.4 0.8 1.2
100
1000
b.ii) ! H2O (ppthv)
Pressure
(hPa)
-40 -20 0
100
1000
! Daytime O3
(ppbv)
Pressure
(hPa)
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30-Day Weather Predictions vs. DataResults with no model spinup or data assimilation
1000
1005
1010
1015
10201025
1030
12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780
Airpressure(hP
a)
GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999)
34.4453oN, 118.1722
oW
05
10152025303540
12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780Air
temperature(oC)
GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999)
34.0133o
N, 117.9406o
W
0
20
40
60
80
100
12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780R
elativehumidity(%)
GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999)
34.0133oN, 117.9406
oW
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
12 108 204 300 396 492 588 684 780
Ozone(pp
mv)
GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Aug. 1, 1999)
34.0506oN, 117.5447
oW
Pressure
Ozone
Temperature
RH
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Model vs. Measured Solar RadiationModel predicted the location and magnitude of cloud reduction of
sunlight for four days in a row
0
200
400
600
800
1000
96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192Solarirradiance(W/m
2)
GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Feb. 1, 1999)
34.2525oN, 118.8575
oW Measured and modeled
solar reductions due to clouds
0
200
400
600
800
1000
12 96 180 264 348 432 516 600 684Solarirradiance(W/m
2)
GMT hour of simulation (starting 12 GMT Feb. 1, 1999)
34.2525oN, 118.8575
oW
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Summary
Increased water vapor and temperatures from higher CO2
separately increase ozone more with higher ozone; thus, globalwarming may exacerbate ozone most in already-polluted areas.
CO2 may increase U.S. annual air pollution deaths by about 1000(350-1800) and cancers by 20-30 per 1 K rise in CO2-inducedtemperatures, with 40% due to O
3
and 60% due to PM2.5
, whichincreases from enhanced stability. Increases in worldwide deathscould be about 21,600 (7400-39,000) more than those fromenhanced storminess.
CO2
decreases column ozone by decreasing uppertropospheric/lower stratospheric ozone. Although this increasesUV, increased aerosol loadings reduce this UV at the surface.
The results provide a basis for controlling CO2 on air-pollution
health grounds.
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Summary
A1B and B1 emission scenarios for 2030 were developed. Although
B1 was cleaner, global warming increased more with it because A1B
warming was masked by added reflective particles.
Lightning emissions decreased in both scenarios as cloud ice
decreased. Photosynthesis-cellular respiration (NPP) increased in bothscenarios. Seas spray, ocean bacteria, DMS, soil dust, pollen, spores,
land bacteria emissions slightly decreased due to enhanced stability.
Ozone increased in both scenarios.